Fall 2018;Northern Hemisphere (totals, Mediterranean, warm, records)

[PGweather]

Almanac:

Sep 28, 2018: Rain 🌧️

Hi 21*C / 70*F at 3:30pm
Lo 8*C / 47*F at 7:05am

Wind: 23kph / 14mph from SW
5mm / 0.2" rain recorded
74% humidity

25% color change 🍁

Record high: 28*C / 82*F in 1946
Average high: 19*C / 66*F
Average low: 9*C / 48*F
Record low: 1*C / 34*F in 1989

Forecast:

Today: Sunny. High 15*C / 59*F.

Tonight: Periods of rain or drizzle. Low 4*C / 39*F.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by Cambium

7 day Temp departures each week September 2018 (minus the 28th, 29th, 30th)


U.S View. Most above normal here was the 1st week.




Northeast View

I bet FL was pink it was so above normal.

[BullochResident]

Originally Posted by Cambium

The fight is on! We'll continue to see the crazy gradients somewhere with the cold air getting stronger and coming down while the heat fights to stay as far north as possible.

It's as much an east to west battle as it is north to south. That's what frustrates me the most. Areas farther west at my latitude get to see nicer air first while I continue to see summer.

This seems to be true up north too. Iowa was freezing their butts off this morning. Boston? Only dropped to the 50s.

[Ed's Mountain]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

Will this be the pattern for the high latitudes during October and beyond?

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1045699332433793024

The circulation anomaly in the northern hemisphere this past month has been nothing short of historic and there's no signs of it ending any time soon.

Here's an interesting analysis of the first two weeks of this event--it seems things have only become more extreme since then.
Deep Cold: Interior and Northern Alaska Weather & Climate: Historical Context for Recent Extreme

As shown in the above reference, a circulation anomaly of this magnitude--a staggering 5.3 standard deviations above the mean of this metric--has never been measured before with measurements dating to 1958.

Source: Deep Cold: Interior and Northern Alaska Weather & Climate: Historical Context for Recent Extreme

Here's the pattern the atmosphere was stuck in during those two weeks. Nothing has really changed since.

Source: Deep Cold: Interior and Northern Alaska Weather & Climate: Historical Context for Recent Extreme

[Ed's Mountain]

Here's an animation of 500mb height anomalies for the last few weeks using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data showing how basically nothing is moving.

Source: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/cl...ir.quick.shtml

The result is warmth in Siberia, Alaska, and the North Pole and cold in central North America.

Source: https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/

Not even a hint from any of the models that anything is about to change.

Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[Isleofpalms85]

^^^^^^


Cold in the Midwest, are you kidding? In Indianapolis, overall temperatures have been running above average since May, not to mention the fact that September 2018 will likely make the top 15 warmest September months on modern record, this is following the most 90+ degree weather since 2012, it has only been cooler weather really for the last week if that, and.........I would not be the least bit surprised if Indianapolis has another potentially warmer than normal fall season.

[Ed's Mountain]

Originally Posted by Isleofpalms85

^^^^^^


Cold in the Midwest, are you kidding? In Indianapolis, overall temperatures have been running above average since May, not to mention the fact that September 2018 will likely make the top 15 warmest September months on modern record, this is following the most 90+ degree weather since 2012, it has only been cooler weather really for the last week if that, and.........I would not be the least bit surprised if Indianapolis has another potentially warmer than normal fall season.

When did I say cold in the Midwest?

[ral31]

The past couple of days haven't been too bad. Temps have been a bit lower with mostly overcast conditions.

The first low below 70F of September was Thursday... Pretty pathetic to go so long without getting below 70F. The normal low for today's date is 61F.

Looks like it will get back to around 90F next week.

[ral31]

Originally Posted by Cambium

I thought August's rain total was a lot at 5.08". This month I got almost 11 inches of rain.


49.34" precip total for the year (Includes snow melt).


The 2016 drought is a distant memory now.

Your beating me for the year. I have 43.40" so far. Late winter and early spring were quite wet, but the past few months have been dry.

The last time I got over an inch of rain in a day was July 11.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by Ed's Mountain

Here's an animation of 500mb height anomalies for the last few weeks using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data showing how basically nothing is moving.

Source: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/cl...ir.quick.shtml

The result is warmth in Siberia, Alaska, and the North Pole and cold in central North America.

Source: https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/

Not even a hint from any of the models that anything is about to change.

Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

I told these guys weeks ago that high was dead locked and it won't move for months.

I expect all 90's thru all of Oct in my area and a record hot month like this month was.