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suppose to have an outdoor Halloween party Saturday Night in central Jersey, should we postpone? local stations here are saying a nor'easter for the weekend..
Clear and dry ( and in the low 60s) on Long Island but there’s a severe thunderstorm across the sound but there’s a severe thunderstorm across the sound in Rhode Island?! Weird contrast, especially for non humid conditions; doesn’t feel like storm weather
suppose to have an outdoor Halloween party Saturday Night in central Jersey, should we postpone? local stations here are saying a nor'easter for the weekend..
Yes.. postpone unless you want to get wet and feel the wind. Timing still being worked out by the models but I dont think it will be clear for Sat evening/night.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei
Clear and dry ( and in the low 60s) on Long Island but there’s a severe thunderstorm across the sound but there’s a severe thunderstorm across the sound in Rhode Island?! Weird contrast, especially for non humid conditions; doesn’t feel like storm weather ]
Yeah, these 60s is like... finally!! Lol. Went from clouds, to some sun, now bright blue. Weird a TStorm is there. I havent checked radar or maps today. I think I see the cloud edge from that storm. Is it a sea breeze storm or part of the front?
Holy hell I just noticed on the gfs that the backend of the second storm is another nor’easter. The gfs is bringing a huge parade of storms !
Yeah, been hinting for couple days now. Just imagine it was winter. Back to backs. Looks like its rounding the base of the trough and develops off the coast after the 1st leaves
there’s a severe thunderstorm across the sound in Rhode Island?!
NWS Boston.
Quote:
Scattered showers with embedded heavier downpours erupting over
S/SE areas of CT and RI. Latest RAP mesoanalysis illustrating
steep low level lapse rates and elevated instability. Undergoing
forcing in association with lead shortwave energy to parent closed
low-mid level low, beneath the left front quadrant of the upper
level jet, deep moist plume being captured as illustrated per
precipitable waters in RAP mesoanalysis is easily lofted.
As alluded to earlier, convective indices exceeding thresholds,
especially with respect to total totals. Couple hundred J/kg CAPE.
Plenty of SW uni-directional shear with both the 0-6 km mean wind
and bulk shear SW parallel. Anywhere surface SE wind, can`t rule
out some 0-1 km turning / helicity which requires watching. Also
can`t rule out graupel given low freezing levels and ascent of
an unstable column per RAP model soundings through said freezing
layer.
Isolated thunder prevailing with heavy rain / gusty wind wording.
Mainly focused E of aforementioned low and potent shortwave in
regions of better instability and low level forcing.
Outcomes entirely possible along and N of the attendant warm front
beginning to show up around the N MA border parent to the surface
low to the sweeping vortmax sweeps through. Elevated convection
possible above the shallow surface inversion with the focus over
NE MA.
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