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Temp Departure from normal so far this month.(to date). Great lakes and Ohio Valley the core of the cold. Interesting to see Louisiana there below normal.
Montana and North Dakota warm May so far.
Don't let the small numbers fool you. That 5 below normal in Binghamton is Top 10 coldest for May 1-9 period. Buffalo 2nd coldest
I'm a bit surprised too by the size of the negative departure.
We've had two days with a high's in upper 60's and two nights with lows in upper 40's. Also prior to today, the lows have all been below 60F. The average high/low for today's date is 84/62F.
The warmest max so far this month has been 86F. No 90's in the forecast right now, but approaching 90F next week.
I'm a bit surprised too by the size of the negative departure.
We've had two days with a high's in upper 60's and two nights with lows in upper 40's. Also prior to today, the lows have all been below 60F. The average high/low for today's date is 84/62F.
The warmest max so far this month has been 86F. No 90's in the forecast right now, but approaching 90F next week.
Yeah, wow! Talk about a couple days as the reason, gees. Look at those 60s. Also, looks like all the lows so far except 2 have been below normal
Today: 52/37 with partial sun
Yesterday: 51/37 with partial sun
Monday: 52/37 with partial sun
#Snoozefest
At least it's not raining. Very boring, but dry so it's still semi-pleasant. Definitely a positive change from the months worth of rain in the first week of May.
Wind swept rains coming Saturday with a pumping Gulf and Atlantic moisture. #Coastal
NWS NY discussion on this current pattern and the weekend coastal storm. We have been below normal with interesting skies because of this slow moved Upper Low which has been blocked from leaving the region. Once that finally leaves, a coastal storm comes with wind swept rains.
Quote:
National Weather Service New York NY
424 AM EDT Thu May 11 2017
Upper level cutoff low continues to spin east of New England.
Should see diurnal clouds redevelop from late morning into the
afternoon especially across southern CT via weakly cyclonic H8
flow, along with positive theta-E advection at that level. A
sprinkle may even be possible across far eastern sections late
morning or early afternoon as a weak mid level shortwave passes
by. Temps should be slightly warmer than those of yesterday,
with mid 60s for NYC and most of NE NJ, and lower 60s elsewhere.
CLouds that develop this afternoon appear likely to hang on
tonight as combo of weakly cyclonic H8 flow and positive H8
theta-E advection at that level continue, with low temps in the
40s. Expect more maritime influence on Fri as easterly flow
gradually increases, with highs only in the mid and upper 50s.
Blocky pattern continues through the period, with a coastal storm impacting the region over the weekend.
Models continue in good agreement on a SE-drifting Central
Canadian closed low interacting with approaching energy from an
opening southwest low this weekend. Models are still struggling
a bit with the timing and location of phasing between the two as
this complex pivots through the Ohio Valley into NE Sat into
Sun. This has been evident in the ensemble spread and
operational model run to run and model to model inconsistency
over the last couple of days, although there appears to be some
narrowing in this spread spread over the last 24 hrs. These
differences manifest in some subtle timing/track/intensity
spread of the developing coastal low along the SE/Mid Atlantic
coastal plain Fri Night/Sat as it intensifies and slowly tracks
NE to near or just SE of Long Island Sat night into Sunday.
The above details will ultimately determine exact location of
heavy rain and expanse of wind field over the region and timing
of associated peak rain/wind impacts. In general though, confidence is high in a soaking windswept rain during the Sat- Sun morning period, due to deep layered lift from difluent flow
aloft, strong low/mid-level frontogenetic forcing, and a
developing 45-55 kt SE LLJ pumping in a Gulf/Atlantic moisture
feed with +2 STD PW.
In terms of rainfall, models are converging on potential for a 1.5-3 inch rainfall, with longer window mesoscale models
indicating potential for locally higher amounts. Initially east-
facing higher terrain appears to be favored for heavier rain
based on E-SE inflow, then likely transitioning to location of
a coastal front. See the HYDROLOGY section for related flood
impacts.
In terms of winds, E-NE winds should increase through the day
Saturday, likely peaking along the coast late Sat/Sat Eve with gust of 30-40 mph. Similar NW wind gusts appear possible late
Sat night into Sun on the back side of low. Where the winds
fall in this range and timing will again be dependent on the
afore mentioned low pressure evolution.
Rollercoaster Jet Stream. Not because of Global Warming.
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