Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Could be an interesting lake effect season, at least as soon as the Arctic blasts are cold enough. Right now most of the Great Lakes seem a bit too warm for lake effect snow, only lake effect rain...
Great Lakes temperatures compare to other years on Oct 13.
The warmest the lakes have been for this time of year were all in 2021. That year, Lake Erie and St Clair were still swimmable at ~67F.
Back in 2021 I was too far from any lake effect belts, but now I'm a little closer to Lake Huron so I could get some distal lake effect snow falls. And Lake Huron is definitely quite warm right now. In 2021, Elora/Fergus got its first measurable accumulation (1") on Nov 14, but nothing above 2-3" until January 17 when it got 7.5" of snow.
February 2022 had a more consistent snowpack, with the whole month having 8" of snow depth, peaking at 16.5" on Feb 20.
So overall, not much garantee of Lake Effect making it all the way here compared to areas closer to Lake Huron, but still snowier than Oakville.
Mount Forest is still 45 miles from Lake Huron though, and only 25 miles from us, so the lake effect snows seem to fall off just a short distance NW of here.
Could be an interesting lake effect season, at least as soon as the Arctic blasts are cold enough. Right now most of the Great Lakes seem a bit too warm for lake effect snow, only lake effect rain...
Great Lakes temperatures compare to other years on Oct 13.
The warmest the lakes have been for this time of year were all in 2021. That year, Lake Erie and St Clair were still swimmable at ~67F.
Nice stats! Don't forget, while the lakes are that warm, land wont be. All it takes is one super arctic blast with temps aloft at least -10C and those Lake 50s and 60s will create more instability so heavier snow would fall over land.
It's not like we're tracking snow over the Lakes themselves, the warmer they are the more snow that could fall, even Thundersnow!
Nothing on the horizon next 10 days so the Lakes will keep cooling down before a true arctic blast comes.
Nice stats! Don't forget, while the lakes are that warm, land wont be. All it takes is one super arctic blast with temps aloft at least -10C and those Lake 50s and 60s will create more instability so heavier snow would fall over land.
It's not like we're tracking snow over the Lakes themselves, the warmer they are the more snow that could fall, even Thundersnow!
Nothing on the horizon next 10 days so the Lakes will keep cooling down before a true arctic blast comes.
Yeah, in a couple weeks, a powerful Arctic air blast might have the potential to generate snow around here, with peak lake effect potential being around Nov 15-Jan 15?
Even Lake Ontario, which is the slowest cooling, is (on average) 52F by October 31st though, with the warmest ever being 57F for that date. It averages in the high 40s in mid November, and low 40s in late December. So I think 60s lake waters is too warm, mid-high 50s is possible, especially at high elevations, but I'd say mid 40s-low 50s is when you get the heaviest lake effect snow. Last November's Upstate NY monster snowfalls were when Lake Erie and Ontario were 48-51F. During the more moderate lake effect snowfall that I drove through in late November 2021, Lake Erie was around 47F. If you can name a single example of when one of the Great Lakes generated substantial lake effect snow while waters were >60F let me know though and I'll correct my position...
On the east end of Lake Superior, the potential already exists, I got a solid amount of snow on Oct 3, 2019 when I was driving up through there - about 2-3" in the uplands north of Wawa. Those areas were 1300-1600ft, compared to 609ft for Lake Superior. Average water temperature of the lake was 53.5F then. Air temperature was 32-35F, so it was very much of a wet snow.
Since we are talking about this, I was reading a botany article the other day, where it mentioned that Europe has very low precipitation for its latitude, so even with mild winters and being a west coast, it should have greater snowfall. Norway and the Balkans have precipitation levels above 1000 mm per year (39 inches),and they surpass the rest of europe in this aspect. Western Europe also should not have forests, since to maintain that level of vegetation at least 1000 mm of annual rain is needed, London and Paris have very similar rainfall to several Mediterranean places in California, the reason why It is not dry and there is a forest (originally at least) because the humid air brought by the sea currents replaces the need for rain, compensating for the plants and the soil.
Here we can see how precipitation and snowfall match.
So there's not either lake or sea snow effect really.
Northwest cloudband-induced snow is my favourite, or thundersnow in general really. These bring very high fall rates and can drop upwards of 100cm (3.3ft) in as little as 30hrs on the AUS Alps. Most common in late winter and early to mid spring. Plus I love the vibe of snow coming from the northwest as opposed to the usual west/southwest.
Last edited by WesterlyWX; 10-17-2023 at 04:55 AM..
Since we are talking about this, I was reading a botany article the other day, where it mentioned that Europe has very low precipitation for its latitude, so even with mild winters and being a west coast, it should have greater snowfall. Norway and the Balkans have precipitation levels above 1000 mm per year (39 inches),and they surpass the rest of europe in this aspect. Western Europe also should not have forests, since to maintain that level of vegetation at least 1000 mm of annual rain is needed, London and Paris have very similar rainfall to several Mediterranean places in California, the reason why It is not dry and there is a forest (originally at least) because the humid air brought by the sea currents replaces the need for rain, compensating for the plants and the soil.
Here we can see how precipitation and snowfall match.
So there's not either lake or sea snow effect really.
I think it's not just the humid air. It's also the temperature and seasonal distribution. The West Coast of North America (from California to southern BC), and the Mediterranean, both get the vast majority of their rainfall during winter, leaving not much for summer, which is when plants would want to grow the most, and therefore transpire the most.
At lower temperatures, you also get lower evapotranspiration rates. For example, right now my area is fairly muddy despite the fact that we haven't had that much rain, with only 0.6cm in the past week and 3cm in the past month. In the summer the soil would be very dry with so little rain, but in the summer, it would be on average 25C in the day and 15C at night, whereas lately, it's only been 10-15C in the day and 5C at night, with a lot of overcast weather and even when the sun is out, it's not as strong, the days are shorter, and more of the ground is shaded due to longer shadows.
Central Canada around Thunder Bay, Kenora, Winnipeg, get similar rainfall to London and Paris, but is still pretty moist in terms of vegetation, despite being pretty far from any sea air. When your hottest month has a mean temperature around 20C, 600mm of rain is still decent.
Even Hungary is able to support forests, despite a hotter growing season than London/Paris, and less rain, although the forests do tend to be a bit drier.
To see the impact of temperature, you can compare Odessa/Midland in Texas, to some place like Saskatoon that get similar precipitation totals, but are much colder.
This week's upcoming warmth should help ensure that trend continues, so we could have a fairly favorable setup for lake effect snow whenever the first proper Arctic blast arrives this November. Maybe even earlier? Halloween is set to be quite cold in much of the Great Lakes, in the northern parts, it could be cold enough for snow.
Marquette, MI
Oct 30: 39/32F
Oct 31: 37/32F
Nov 01: 37/34F
Gaylord, MI
Oct 30: 37/30F
Oct 31: 36/28F
Nov 01: 36/30F
Houghton, MI
Oct 30: 36/32F
Oct 31: 36/32F
Nov 01: 36/34F
Huntsville, ON
Oct 30: 43/34F
Oct 31: 39/30F
Nov 01: 37/32F
Wawa, ON
Oct 30: 36/28F
Oct 31: 34/27F
Nov 01: 34/28F
White River, ON
Oct 30: 34/25F
Oct 31: 32/25F
Nov 01: 32/27F
Ellicottville, NY
Oct 30: 50/36F
Oct 31: 41/30F
Nov 01: 39/30F
Rome, NY
Oct 30: 55/41F
Oct 31: 46/36F
Nov 01: 45/32F
So far the Upstate NY/Western PA, Bruce/Georgian and northern MI snowbelts look not quite cold enough, but that could change. The East of Superior snowbelts are looking like they'll be cold enough though, just a question of whether the wind will be blowing off the lake at any point.
Possible small amounts of lake effect snow tonight and tomorrow night in southern Ontario.
Disco from NWS Cleveland. Lots of instability with -8C temps aloft
Quote:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1033 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2023
The forecast for Tuesday night into Wednesday will bring an
appropriate amount of fright for those not ready for snow to end
October and begin November. A strong upper trough will move through
the Great Lakes region and allow for a surface
low to move across the forecast area. This system will be fairly
potent in the amount of cold air that will enter the region and the
amount of lift in place that will allow for precipitation to form.
The system will bring in temperatures aloft of -7 to -8C at 850 mb,
which equates to delta Ts of almost 20C between the lake surface and 850 mb, which is
a large amount of instability in the region. Therefore, lake effect processes will be going
and with great intensity. Have increased both QPF and Snow Amounts forecasted for the period,
especially over Lake Erie and in NE Ohio and NW PA.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
