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Great lakes Storm track = killer for snow in the East and always brings in warmth..
Hard to say this as we were in the sub zero temps and struggled past teens today but in 24hrs about to change to rain..
Good stuff, read it all. Southwest winds wont help warm surface much
Quote:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
433 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PCPN BECOMES LIKELY SAT AFTN AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND PASSES NORTH SUNDAY MORNING.
PCPN TAPERS OFF ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH IN THE
AFTN.
BIG QUESTION IS PCPN TYPE AND HOW MUCH OF IT...AS THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT MIXED PCPN TYPES FOR MOST OF THE CWA FOR THIS EVENT. WARM LAYER ALOFT FROM APPROX 975-925 MB WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA STARTING SATURDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY NEVER REACH THE FAR NW PORTION OF
THE CWA.
LOOKS LIKE A BIGGER INFLUENCE IN PCPN TYPE FOR MANY AREAS
WILL BE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AS THIS WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN PLAIN RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. WITH THE WARM NOSE RELATIVELY
LOW IN ELEVATION AND THE AIR BELOW IT NOT WELL-BELOW ZERO...
THINKING
IS THAT WHILE SLEET IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE...IT PROBABLY WON`T BE A
PRIMARY PCPN TYPE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE NO CAD FROM A HIGH TO THE
NORTH...PROMOTING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY
COLD TEMPS PRECEDING THE EVENT AND EVEN SW WINDS MIGHT NOT DO MUCH TO HELP SURFACE WARMING AS THEY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND ARRIVING OFF OF A SNOW PACK.
FREEZING RAIN COULD THEREFORE STILL OCCUR WITH 2M TEMPS IN THE MID 30S.
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