Spring 2015 thread (Northern Hemisphere) (warm, average, nights, city)
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lol, happened a lot here during "summer" 2 weeks ago. I ignore exacts, you have to get lucky. I just see if its hot, cold, warm, ect. LOL. High of 89 predicted and you're wondering about 93° is not really that off. I see its only 88 at MIA now and its 1:30pm.
I contributed the underestimation here to the dry ground we had. Not sure whats going on there.
Something is being underestimated by models and not seen by meteos? More sun Less clouds? Wind direction? It could even be 1 more hour of sun in the morning where as a later arrival would of prevented that extra 3F? I see clouds arrived at MIA and temp went from 89 to 88. Is that a forecast for the nearest location to you which might be hotter?
Closest station to here is Hollywood, FL which is sitting at 91 F right now, but that was at 12:55 and it's still bright and sunny outside.
A 4 degree difference is fairly significant down here. It does seem like there's less clouds and lighter winds than forecasted so that could be the contribution.
Even on the day in April that it reached 97 F here, NWS only predicted 92 F. It seems like they forecast scared lol
Hmm. Are the clouds trailing the front? Is that why there aren't any clouds to the northwest?
50°F in southern Illinois!
Clouds over Northeast not sure actually. I thought the front moved into the Atlantic.
Here's an overall discussion from WPC for whole country.. good link to keep. Discussion link to the left. Also surface map and more. Their discussions can get very technical especially the long range ones.
Talking about forecast errors.. here's NWS NY "adjusting" the highs for today because of the clouds..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
150 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATO-CUMULUS SLOWLY ERODING FROM E TO W...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS
OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES 1-2 CATEGORIES TO REFLECT IMPACT FROM
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.
TWC is actually more accurate for our forecasts down here than the NWS, although the NWS is usually more accurate when it comes to precipitation chances.
UPDATE: Temperature dropped to 90 F now and the E wind increased.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
131 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM WED UPDATE... AS WAS STATED THIS TIME YESTERDAY...TODAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE A BRISK AUTUMN DAY THAN LATE MAY...AS A CHILLY AMS
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO CNY/NE PA. PROGGED 925/850 MB TEMPS THIS
AFTN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S-MID 60S.
IN ADDITION...A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE WITH US DURING THE
MORNING ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW SUNNY
BREAKS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTNOON AS THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER FINALLY STARTS TO MIX OUT.
Sounds like a layer of moisture still around hence the clouds plus I think the cold and dry air needs to mix in more at all levels to break up the clouds and clear out.
Gonna be super hot in the Southeast this summer if this dry spell continues
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