First Winter Storm Warning in U.S Sept 2014 (climate, snowfall, warmest)

[Cambium]

1st advisory was August 23rd

As discussed in this Alberta snowstorm thread here we go with the 1st Winter Storm Warning of the Season in U.S.

4-8" 5000-7,000 feet, Up to 15 inches for above 7,000 feet in Montana. Remember, they changed the way they issue these warnings. They only issue it where it affects the public.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/tfx/


Lets see how low it can drop. If 5-7k gets 4-8" that means 2000-3000 feet could see flakes at least.

[Cambium]

And here's the updated Euro snowfall totals.

Looks snowier and south more than previous run.

This is snowing total amount of snow now till Friday morning. This is off 10:1 ratios so if the snow/liquid ratio ends up being 6:1 drop these totals.

[Cambium]

I see whats happening... The first main storm exits towards Great Lakes/Canada tomorrow and another piece of energy dives down (wasn't shown last week).

That energy carrying moisture coming after the polar air plunged south. So that's why we're getting snow dropping south as well. See the 540 thickness!?? Even 534! This is impressive to see on the map beginning of September!





From Rapid City.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
316 AM MDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT TUE SEP 9 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP TROF BUILDING INTO THE WRN CONUS WITH UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...BACKDOOR CDFNT WORKING
SWD THROUGH WRN SD...WITH EVEN COLDER AIR SURGING SWD INTO CNTRL
MT.

TODAY...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SWD THROUGH THE CWFA.
TEMPS IN THE NRN HALF OF THE CWFA WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL THROUGH
THE DAY GIVEN STRENGTH OF COLD ADVECTION AND WDSPRD LOW STRATUS
BUILDING SWD OUT OF MT/ND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERMAL PROFILES
SHOW SNOW LEVELS POTENTIALLY LOWERING ONTO THE PLAINS FROM NERN WY
INTO NWRN SD...WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO MOST OF THE REGION. SNOWFALL WILL
MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND FAR
NORTHWEST SD...WHERE AT LEAST A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE
CUTOFF OF RAIN VS SNOW WILL BE CLOSE IN THE RAPID CITY AREA THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL GO WITH A POSSIBLE MIX HERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES QUICKLY EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD...COLDEST WHERE SKIES
CLEAR OUT. A HARD/KILLING FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

[Zephanoa]

Snow is so exciting! Really impressive weather patterns for the beginning of September.

[Jas182]

The snow that hit Canada has hit the US to! Does this usually happen this early?! Astronomical season believes still call it summer!!!

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Jas182

The snow that hit Canada has hit the US to? Does this usually happen this early?!

Some areas no.

Have to see how far down the snow falls. For instance Cut Bank, Montana, Latitude 48.5N only twice since 1904 seen 1 inch or more of snow before September 11th. So it's rare to get accumulating snows this early there. And they are at elevation 3854!!


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Poor NWS doesn't understand snow is falling earlier and earlier recently. The sun getting very sleepy. LOL!!!

Resume when? Guess they'll miss the first one

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

[Cambium]

Accuweather snow total forecast through Thursday

Only pockets of 3-6" but nice swath of 1-3". It's September 9th, hope nobody expected widespread 6-12". LOL Higher elevations possibly, not lower.

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Some areas no.

Have to see how far down the snow falls. For instance Cut Bank, Montana, Latitude 48.5N only twice since 1904 seen 1 inch or more of snow before September 11th. So it's rare to get accumulating snows this early there. And they are at elevation 3854!!


------------------


Poor NWS doesn't understand snow is falling earlier and earlier recently. The sun getting very sleepy. LOL!!!

Resume when? Guess they'll miss the first one

WPC Winter Weather Forecasts

Would you remind me again when the winter Olympics couldn't even muster decent snow as in Sochi? Stop ignoring the warm areas of the planet, and only harping on and on about the cold departures.


Sochi

Warm weather causing problems for outdoor sports at the Sochi Winter Olympic Games - CBS News

Vancourver

Vancouver 2010 to Be Warmest Winter Olympics Yet



Turin

Turin: No Snow, No Problem



I wish you would keep more of an open mind about the climate, and stop using this site to shill about a new or impending ice age. Put down your biased articles.

I keep an open mind about it, and look at temps all over the globe. Yeah, last winter was brutal, but a non winter in most of the rest of the world. You barely mentioned, like Bastardi, all the warmth in the rest of the world, and constantly talk about how cold the eastern 2/3 of the US is. It is obvious we in the eastern US and Canada are in a cold pattern for at least a year and a half now (due mainly to those Pacific ocean temp anomalies), but even Bastardi is now saying after this winter we will have some non winters for a few years. What will you be saying then?

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Accuweather snow total forecast through Thursday

Only pockets of 3-6" but nice swath of 1-3". It's September 9th, hope nobody expected widespread 6-12". LOL Higher elevations possibly, not lower.

BTW, the ensemble GFS is calling for temps in the 70'sF and even low 80's after 15 September for Rapid City. Where will the snow be then lol.

[Cambium]

Just checked another location. Billings Montana. Only 2 year had snow accumulate more than 1 inch before September 12th. WOW! Records Since 1934.

Keep in mind, these stats are "accumulating".. doesn't mean a location hasn't seen snow falling for hours without accumulating.

Lets see if Billings gets 1"+