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View Poll Results: Which is more likely?
An inch of snow on Miami Beach on New Year's Day 8 21.05%
An inch of snow in downtown Chicago on Memorial Day 30 78.95%
Voters: 38. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12-05-2013, 08:18 PM
 
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Which is more likely:

A) An inch of snow on Miami Beach on New Year's Day

or

B) In inch of snow in downtown Chicago on Memorial Day (For non-Americans, Memorial Day is the last Monday in May so earliest it could be is May 25th).
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Old 12-05-2013, 08:21 PM
 
Location: Northville, MI
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Chicago has seen snow in early may before, and freezing lows have been recorded on memorial day. So, I would go with option B.
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Old 12-05-2013, 08:29 PM
 
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Quote:
Chicago's climate records date back to late 1870 and for a century Memorial Day was always on May 30, but since 1971 the holiday has been observed on the last Monday in May. Over the course of those 135 Memorial Days, several have been chilly and wet, but there has never been a flake of snow reported. The city's lowest temperature on the holiday occurred on May 25, 1992 when the mercury fell to a record low of 32+. The chilliest daytime high was 42+ recorded way back on May 30, 1889. Rain wise, the city's wettest Memorial Day happened just five years ago when nearly an inch (.90") doused the area. From 1971-1990, the city experienced a rash of wet Memorial Days, with rain falling on 15 out of 20 (75%) holidays.
Ask Tom Why - Chicago Tribune



Quote:
Isolated flurries were even reported from West Palm Beach to as far south as Kendall and sleet in a few spots in the South Florida metropolitan area for only the second time in recorded history and first time since 1977.[31]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_in_Florida

Last edited by chicagogeorge; 12-05-2013 at 08:41 PM..
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Old 12-05-2013, 08:40 PM
 
Location: Lincoln, NE
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This one is a little tough, but I'll have to give it to Chicago.
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Old 12-06-2013, 06:35 AM
 
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Chicago.
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Old 12-06-2013, 07:58 AM
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Location: Western Massachusetts
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In a volcanic winter scenario, such as 1815-1816 snow in Chicago would be possible. Although maybe less so than New England since it has a faster spring warm-up. However, being near the plains gives it a brings variability so perhaps they cancel.

These threads that deal with extremely rare events (so rare they haven't yet occurred in the record), climate change or freak years would determine the probability of events that occur after a long time.
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Old 12-06-2013, 07:42 PM
 
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Wow- not a single vote for Miami Beach. I think ppl are fixated on the month of May not realizing what a HUGE difference there is between EARLY May and LATE May. Yes, it's snowed in Chicago in May but never in late May, not even a flurry during the last week of May. It HAS flurried on Miami Beach in midwinter so it's possible for snow to accumulate during a major cold snap.

Also bear in mind, Memorial Day occurs at the very end of the month. If I changed the poll to snow on June 1st in Chicago vs. snow on January 1st in Miami, the results would be more evenly split. June 1st is a better representation of a Memorial Day climate than even May 15th.
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Old 12-06-2013, 07:50 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AdriannaSmiling View Post
Wow- not a single vote for Miami Beach. I think ppl are fixated on the month of May not realizing what a HUGE difference there is between EARLY May and LATE May. Yes, it's snowed in Chicago in May but never in late May, not even a flurry during the last week of May. It HAS flurried on Miami Beach in midwinter so it's possible for snow to accumulate during a major cold snap.
Not sure how much about USA climatology you know....but keep in mind there is no record of snow ever falling in the City of Miami Beach - ever. Also, along with cities in the Florida Keys, Miami Beach is the only other city in the USA to never report a frost or freeze.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami_Beach,_Florida

In the City of Miami , there is only one known record of snow ever falling: In 1977 Miami Airport on the edge of the city recorded a trace (T) of snow between the 5:00 and 6;00 Am NWS observations (meaning the trace disappeared in less than 1 hr). This is only known obs of snow near Miami in 250 years.
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Old 12-06-2013, 07:52 PM
 
Location: HERE
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
Not sure how much about USA climatology you know....but keep in mind there is no record of snow ever falling in the City of Miami Beach - ever. Also, along with cities in the Florida Keys, Miami Beach is the only other city in the USA to never report a frost or freeze.

In the City of Miami , there is only one known record of snow ever falling: In 1977 Miami Airport on the edge of the city recorded a trace (T) of snow between the 5:00 and 6;00 Am NWS observations (meaning the trace disappeared in less than 1 hr). This is only known obs of snow near Miami in 250 years.
Sorry: I thought the 1977 event included at least a flurry falling on Miami Beach. Given that Miami's all time record low is 27 F, wouldn't the beach at least get down to freezing? I thought microclimates were far less pronounced in the Eastern U.S. than they are here on the West Coast.
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Old 12-06-2013, 08:09 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AdriannaSmiling View Post
Sorry: I thought the 1977 event included at least a flurry falling on Miami Beach. Given that Miami's all time record low is 27 F, wouldn't the beach at least get down to freezing? I thought microclimates were far less pronounced in the Eastern U.S. than they are here on the West Coast.

Keep in mind the 1977 event was a trace (T) about the thickness of your fingernail - lol. So it was extremely fleeting event - even at the airport inland.

As far as the record low 27 F....it has little/nothing to do with microclimates I think; The record low was also recorded at the airport, which is much cooler than the City of Miami Beach, which is really an island if you look at the map. From what data they have on their NWS site, even the City of Miami (which I assume is the inland airport station) has only gone below 30 F like 4 times in the last 100 years. So Miami Beach would likely have never seen lows below 35 - 40 F I would think.
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