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Ridges are like that sometimes. The Russian heat wave of 2010, and the big ridge over the central US in March of 2012, and during the summer of 2012 were also stubborn, and took weeks to break down.
shouldn't a ridge be harder to keep long-term in the winter with the stronger jet stream?
FOR THOSE HOPING FOR RAINFALL, UNFORTUNATELY NOTHING ENCOURAGING
TO REPORT EVEN LOOKING OUT THROUGH 16 DAYS (JANUARY 30TH) AS THE
EVER PERSISTENT RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROF.
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL ROCKET BACK UP T0 OVER 585 DM WITH 850 MB
TEMPS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING AT
THE SURFACE. GOOD SHOT THAT WE WILL SEE MORE RECORD HIGHS SET NEXT
WEEK. EVEN LOOKING AT A SLEW OF ENSEMBLES AND MODELS REALLY DOES NOT
OFFER ANY SIGN OF HOPE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY HIGH FOR THE MUCH
DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LAST FULL WEEK
OF THE MONTH.
UNLESS THERE IS A HUGE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THAT THE MODELS ARE
NOT PICKING UP ON, WE ARE ON TRACK TO HAVE THE DRIEST JANUARY ON
RECORD FOR VIRTUALLY ALL LOCATIONS.
------------------------------------
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 PM PST MON JAN 13 2014
.SHORT TERM... UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...
.LONG TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY FOR ONE
LAST DRY DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN SATURDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY FOR A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.
Wow the drought there in CA is really bad. I would be concerned about wildfires this summer. CA is not getting any of those low pressure systems from the Pacific. Very bad.
Hopefully once the jet flattens out, or if a trough develops in the west, that might give them opportunities for rain. I think this may happen as we approach spring
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei
shouldn't a ridge be harder to keep long-term in the winter with the stronger jet stream?
You don't see too many ridges over land during the winter, but maybe the above normal SST in the north Pacific is allowing for the ridge to hold it's ground there??
CFSv2 for Super Bowl weekend. Bulls eye over Illinois on cold. Also, lots of snow on the ground. Hope this happens!
GFS snow fall accumulation by Saturday for the Chicago metro area
Last edited by chicagogeorge; 01-14-2014 at 09:31 AM..
A look at the current Temps, Radar and 500mb heights and winds. I drew lines to easily see where the ridges and trough was. Keep in mind, a trough doesn't always mean below normal temps, a ridge doesn't always mean above normal temps. Case in point today 95% of the U.S is at or above normal even with a trough right there.
The source of cold air is not around yet, it's back up in Canada but slowly working back down. This pattern is prime for East coast storms. Storms love to ride in between the right edge of trough. Then you can get the clippers to cut through as well which we should start to see soon. In fact happening right now with 1-4" of snow being dropped.
The winds(arrows) helps understand how the flow is at 18,000.
Raining again, in the low forties, ice everywhere, only about four inches of snow cover in places. Snow would have been easier to deal with than the rain IMO.
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I guess the uppers will upgrade with time.
