Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
This is about watching the Arctic sea ice during this melt season.
I started the thread, I thought the thread could be a bit broader than that. I thought discussing any hypothetical weather consequences of decreased or no sea ice would be interesting. Particularly for the weather forum. As I did in the OP:
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei
Also, what would the weather effects of little or no sea ice be? Ice reflects sunlight, open ocean absorbs most of it. But at this point in the year, the sun is so low in the atmosphere around the north pole, so there isn't much sunlight to absorb. Open water evaporates water while sea ice is kind of a "lid" between the ocean and the atmosphere. This could affect the dominant pressure and air circulation.
giving a few thoughts, I think I want to add a bit more detail. I'll do so tomorrow when I'm more awake. There's not really any news to add about the Arctic; melt has slowed as shown by my graph (any thoughts on the graph? I thought it could add a bit of insight.)
So, anything that is related to the Arctic sea ice and its weather is on topic. But back and forth bickering that adds 0 information or insight to the topic of sea ice is not on topic. And in any thread everywhere in the forum, personal attacks are not permitted.
So, anything that is related to the Arctic sea ice and its weather is on topic. But back and forth bickering that adds 0 information or insight to the topic of sea ice is not on topic. And in any thread everywhere in the forum, personal attacks are not permitted.
I started the thread, I thought the thread could be a bit broader than that. I thought discussing any hypothetical weather consequences of decreased or no sea ice would be interesting. Particularly for the weather forum. As I did in the OP:
It is interesting Nei, and I discussed a few things with you, but took issue with some of your conclusions. That isn't a big deal, but people coming in and hijacking the thread posting links without discussion that contain politically driven positions concerning the issue is what I have a problem with.
If people want to link something, then discuss it, I have no problems with that, but thread bombing with links is political, nothing more and I think it is quite obvious who those people are.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei
giving a few thoughts, I think I want to add a bit more detail. I'll do so tomorrow when I'm more awake. There's not really any news to add about the Arctic; melt has slowed as shown by my graph (any thoughts on the graph? I thought it could add a bit of insight.)
It has slowed, but I wouldn't call it done yet. Look back through the history, it is not uncommon to get a late increased melt. If it turns and starts growing at this stage, it will be an early come back. In most cases, the melt extends for another week, with the occasional hard melt right at the end.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei
So, anything that is related to the Arctic sea ice and its weather is on topic. But back and forth bickering that adds 0 information or insight to the topic of sea ice is not on topic. And in any thread everywhere in the forum, personal attacks are not permitted.
Then delete everything related to my discussion with those so as to remove the bickering. I don't mind someone commenting on the ice, even making predictions concerning what it will do, that is perfectly acceptable discussion, but this constant "plug" to hint at causation is what is political, more specifically when it is done through link drops without commentary. That isn't discussing the science, that is trying to push a given conclusion to support a particular political position. It is especially such when accusations such as "industry shrill" are used as that is entirely a political mention.
giving a few thoughts, I think I want to add a bit more detail. I'll do so tomorrow when I'm more awake.
Ok here are some of my thoughts on possible weather effects. First a couple of facts:
1) Ocean covered with ice, especially thick ice, doesn't exchange heat or water vapor with the atmosphere. The atmosphere and ocean becomes disconnected
2) If the ocean is open, the ocean can exchange heat with the atmosphere. As well as water vapor.
3) Ocean with a mix of ice and water must be at the freezing temperature (which isn't exactly 0°C due to salt). The air near the surface will also be close to water temperature
As fall progresses the temperature of the Arctic will drop as incoming sunlight falls to near zero. Any open ocean lying around will be much warmer than land. The air above the open ocean will be kept much warmer and wetter than elsewhere. The extra moisture and temperature contrast could provide a fuel for big storms. Might we see any unusual arctic storms this autumn?
The open ocean dumping heat and evaporating water vapor will make the ocean cool much faster than it were covered with sea ice. So in a way, a lack of ice encourages a return to sea ice conditions quickly in wintertime conditions. Cooling and refreezing all the open ocean this autumn will add some extra heat to the atmosphere that it doesn't usually get.
As many here already know well, the North Atlantic / Arctic Oscillation played a major role in affecting recent winters in the northern US. Its strength is determined by the pressure difference between the Arctic (or subarctic North Atlantic) and the subtropical Atlantic. A larger pressure contrast generally means less airflow between the Arctic and lower latitudes with Arctic air trapped in. If the Arctic is warmer, the pressure contrast will be weaker and weather patterns change. But by winter, most of the Arctic ocean will have refrozen so low sea ice shouldn't make much difference. The Arctic lows/ highs have the biggest impact in winter. But I saw a post saying it might have had a summer effect.
Found since the start of unusually low of Arctic sea ice (2007):
The pattern I showed consisted of strongly anomalous high pressure over Greenland surrounded by a ring of tendency to low pressure anomalies...As could be seen from the original Summer Daze post, this process shows that the pattern doesn't occur regularly in the past in the way it has done since 2007.
Unusually low pressure in the UK means colder, wetter weather as weatherfan2 is well aware. I'm not sure I'm convinced; is the pressure pattern caused by the low sea ice or are the same weather patterns responsible for low summer sea ice also causing the pressure differences?
If enough summer sea ice melts… Open ocean absorbs most of the sun's energy (>80%); ice doesn't (< 20%). The incoming solar radiation into high latitudes is high, really high right around the solstice. Before clouds, on June 21st, the poles get more solar radiation per area than the tropics. See the first graph I made in this post. But by late August, the sun is too low to make much of an effect. But if sea ice got low in July, there's a potential for a large amount of extra heat to be absorbed that won't usually. Assumming it's not so cloudy much of the sunlight never makes it to the ocean. The Arctic (and many high latitude oceanic locations) is usually cloudy in the summer and maybe more open ocean could make it even cloudier so the effect could be limited. Otherwise, extra heat in an unusual spot would affect air circulation patterns, maybe it could create weather not seen before, at least in recent human memory. Of course, if there's any sea ice remaining in a mostly open ocean in July, any extra heat would be used to melt more sea ice.
Another interesting thing I noticed that I haven't found an explanation for is the pattern of where the sea ice is. Looking at any sea ice map, it's obvious it's not symmetric around the North Pole, but mainly to one side, with the sea ice concentrated along the side of the Arctic Ocean near Greenland and the Arctic islands of Canada. Over half of the Arctic Ocean looks like it's ice free, mainly to the side facing Alaska, Asia and Scandinavia. You can see from the link I posted on ice thickness that the thickest ice lies against the Canadian islands and northern Greenland and decreasing as one goes further away, even if that's further north. Other recent years show a similar pattern of ice concentration. Why? Is it either:
1) Prevailing wind and ocean currents tend to push ice to one end of the Arctic Ocean so that it piles up on one side (by Greenland / Canada)
2) The Arctic islands of Canada and Greenland are an Arctic cold spot, especially because they contain an ice sheet (Greenland) or permanent ice caps and glaciers (Ellsmere Island and others)
As for the concentration near Greenland and Canada, to my knowledge it's caused by colder temperatures in that part of the Arctic compared to the other end. I assume the cold is caused by the presence of a land ice cap nearby (namely Greenland), which the other side doesn't have.
It's quite a bastion of sea ice. It's also worth noting that the models of global warming/low sea ice have the very last remnant of summer sea ice in the future situated on a narrow strip on the north coast of Ellesmere Island. I don't put much stock at all into the warming models, but it does reflect the reality that in a big warming it would be the last outpost of sea ice, and the fact that it's the thickest and most durable part of the sea ice.
Courtesy of NSIDC Here's the September 9th plot of Arctic sea ice coverage from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. As to be expected, the coverage is getting close to the seasonal minimum, and is, by far, the lowest coverage of the satellite era.
There is more ice loss to be expected in the upcoming weeks....
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
