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Based on where he draws his circle...I think the Ridge/Heat stays south of NYC if this were to verify. But make a mental note..Stratosphere is warming and models aren't handling it well. He even says this. What he's showing you and going by, are the models.
Just like the models didnt see the East hitting teens and 20s past few days. Just take everything you hear about the "future" with a grain of salt. Same goes for any frigid temps it shows.
It's always good to show it and talk about it, but nothing is 100% with future weather.
Right
CPC still hasn't fixed the computer glitches with the models that predict the deviations of the NAO, AO, and PNA. The models should have a better handle on the overall weather pattern now that we are out of the seasonal transition period. Overall the pattern still looks mild for the East until verification proves otherwise. Once we get a sustained week of below average temperatures- that will be a test.
Right
CPC still hasn't fixed the computer glitches with the models that predict the deviations of the NAO, AO, and PNA. The models should have a better handle on the overall weather pattern now that we are out of the seasonal transition period. Overall the pattern still looks mild for the East until verification proves otherwise. Once we get a sustained week of below average temperatures- that will be a test.
First, I'm going to give my thoughts...then I'm going to post some info from Pro mets.
A. Its winter. Its 20s at night. 30s-40s in day. There's snow on ground in places. We're not in shorts, there's no 60s here, there's no tulips growing. Something tells me these guys are comparing to an Ice age saying we're going to be warm.
B. Models cant get it right 7 days before; but they are confident about 1-3 months?? lmao
C. I personally think the ridge will stop near New Jersey keeping it above normal south of there and average north of there.
D. Everyone got spoiled in the East last couple years but they shouldnt compare to those years.
E. I'm still on course saying a "2nd half" winter but we(NY/CT/MA/RI/NJ) will be closer to average rather then well below. Storms will get active again and we already see signs of that.
I figured at this point the stratospheric warming would be in full gear and the influences would start to propagate. In reality this process is taking longer than I thought, in hind sight I think I should have put more weight on the extent of the cold anomalies and how long the rebound would take. Of course, I could point to dozen of cases where the stratosphere has gone from very cold anomalies to very warm anomalies in a short period of time with similar QBO states.
The simple question is this, is the pattern changing? I mean real change, not a small drop. I think yes it will. What I’m grappling with now is when and that answer, and I hate saying this, is unknown right now because of the lack of data I am getting from the CPC. The question at this point is prorogation. Does the changes of the stratosphere start to influence the 500 MB pattern now and the models simply aren’t catching up on this influence OR is this whole process delayed? Again, as I have been saying the question has never been if but when.
Now what you won’t get from me is a bunch of flip flopping. You know what I mean, declaring the coldest January ever and then a day later saying no winter.((talking about Joe Bastardi)) Why? What has changed in 48 hours to go from one extreme to another? That’s not my game. What I am telling you is this…..
Is the stratosphere warming? Yes. How fast will those impacts be felt at 500 MB? I am not sure because I don’t have enough data. Why don’t I have enough data? Because the CPC is stating that the data output is not trustworthy, thus I am not about to trust the NAO/AO teleconnection forecast from the CPC when they don’t trust the data themselves.
So this morning, I wait. Not flip from one wild extreme to another. I will say that if the warming does not start to influence 250 MB and 500 MB soon, that this mild weather pattern will be tough to break because the Polar Vortex is simply too far north right now (this morning) to support a winter pattern that delivers snowfall to the region.
I looked at the European weeklies last evening. WARM! WARM! WARM! for the East into January. The weeklies continue to show positive NAO features across the Northern Hemisphere. This relates to a faster flow across the U.S. making it difficult to develop large snowstorms and cold for the East and northern Plains. Later in the weeklies, out toward week four, there are much lower heights that are forced in the Northwest, dumping cold air into western Canada and the Northwest.
At the same time, this pumps the ridge over the Southeast resulting in mild temperatures. The European hints the first part of January, AT LEAST, will be above normal in the East. If this is right, the winter will turn out quite mild overall in the East because I do not see a lot of change in February. Here is my January temperature map that I will probably need to adjust more next week.
The reason for the hesitation was the stratospheric warming that is occurring this week. The polar vortex is at its strongest right now, and if we do not see signs of weakening, then the cold air will continue to be locked up around the vortex near the Pole or toward the Europe/Asia side.
There is warming and ridging taking place this week, the warming shown by the map below for Dec. 21. However, is it enough to make huge impacts lower into the troposphere 10-15 days out. If you time that, it's about the time when the upper trough will be working south into the Northwest with cold. The modeling suggests that perhaps this cold is dumped into western Canada and the Northwest earlier than we thought from the beginning of the season, starting in the first or second week of January. This would mean more ridging and milder air for the East. I still cannot rule out a few cold shots breaking off and heading toward the northern Plains and Midwest, but there is not a lot of support for the cold to reach the East during this time.
Then a few days later, there is another event which is predicted stronger. The vortex does expand south over the Great Lakes and Northeast. However, the strongest part of the vortex is over the other side of the Pole. It is uncertain whether this separate event can bring any cold to the middle or eastern part of the country later in the month of January.
I will save my other reason for tomorrow's post dealing with the sea ice extent and what I have noticed the past couple of weeks compared to early November.
First, I'm going to give my thoughts...then I'm going to post some info from Pro mets.
A. Its winter. Its 20s at night. 30s-40s in day. There's snow on ground in places. We're not in shorts, there's no 60s here, there's no tulips growing. Something tells me these guys are comparing to an Ice age saying we're going to be warm.
B. Models cant get it right 7 days before; but they are confident about 1-3 months?? lmao
C. I personally think the ridge will stop near New Jersey keeping it above normal south of there and average north of there.
D. Everyone got spoiled in the East last couple years but they shouldnt compare to those years.
E. I'm still on course saying a "2nd half" winter but we(NY/CT/MA/RI/NJ) will be closer to average rather then well below. Storms will get active again and we already see signs of that.
Thanks for posting the links.
1) I agree that any long-range forecasting is iffy due to flips that could happen within a 2 week period of time.
2) Temperatures have not been record setting, but they have been consistently 4-8F above the average in northern New England. Concord, NH just had a low temperature of 4F a few nights ago and then warmed to a high of 41F the next day.
3) I do agree that the ridge will get shunted a bit further south with time, but you have to admit that the feature is just extremely strong given the time of year.
4) It could be a 2nd half winter, but I will take things at face value until the entire East sees a sustained week or two period of below average temperatures. As long as temperatures are way above average in the Southeast the warmth will not ever be too far removed.
5) I do see a bit more of a northwest flow pattern developing in the GFS which would translate to more clippers. Cold air is still margnial so I'm still not terribly impressed.
1) I agree that any long-range forecasting is iffy due to flips that could happen within a 2 week period of time.
2) Temperatures have not been record setting, but they have been consistently 4-8F above the average in northern New England. Concord, NH just had a low temperature of 4F a few nights ago and then warmed to a high of 41F the next day.
3) I do agree that the ridge will get shunted a bit further south with time, but you have to admit that the feature is just extremely strong given the time of year.
4) It could be a 2nd half winter, but I will take things at face value until the entire East sees a sustained week or two period of below average temperatures. As long as temperatures are way above average in the Southeast the warmth will not ever be too far removed.
5) I do see a bit more of a northwest flow pattern developing in the GFS which would translate to more clippers. Cold air is still margnial so I'm still not terribly impressed.
Good post.
Well, I'm not bias to anything because I love weather of all aspects, most know I need Arctic weather, but to put a spin on you're #2... Here in CT December overall is above normal BUT the minimum temps have been below normal 8 out of the 19 days. Thats 42% of the time.
Only 3 of the 19 have been below normal for daily high temps, the rest I consider average with a few days like you said 4-8 above.
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