Texas turning blue.... (Houston, San Antonio, Austin: high school, cost of, stats)

[apple92680]

Originally Posted by LocalPlanner

Oh yeah? Explain how CA is still attractive for your average middle class family then. Because I sure don't see it.

Plenty of middle class people all over California, including myself and everyone in my family. We enjoy healthy salaries and don't spend money like we're Rockefellers or Vanderbilts. The only people I know who "struggle" in California are those who think they have to buy a new boat every year, a new set of boobs/plastic surgery, new jet skis, a new RV or kitchen remodel every five years....basically new "toys" all of the time. Then they'll crank up Fox News and blame "California" and "taxes" for their financial problems and whine and moan about leaving the state. California doesn't force anyone to make those choices, they do that on their own in order to fulfill some psychological "emptiness" they think they have. This is something that tends to afflict middle-class Whites and Filipinos more than any other group, for whatever reason?

Originally Posted by LocalPlanner

Your reasoning may have a lot of applicability, yes, but the anti-fossil-fuel thing has very direct economic / job consequences in TX that it doesn't in CA. I just can't believe that it didn't significantly factor into voting decisions in heavily Hispanic areas where the oil industry accounts for a significant share of accessible, good-paying jobs.

I think that's because, even in heavily-Hispanic areas, most oil industry jobs are still held predominantly by Anglo Whites. Not saying that's a good thing or a bad thing. It just is.

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by apple92680

I think that's because, even in heavily-Hispanic areas, most oil industry jobs are still held predominantly by Anglo Whites. Not saying that's a good thing or a bad thing. It just is.

I dont think you can make that claim. Around here, I dont think thats a true statement. There are a lot of those jobs that are held by Hispanics here.

[malcorub16]

^^ True, west Texas oil jobs are heavily Hispanic. Oil jobs in CA...not so.

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by apple92680

Plenty of middle class people all over California, including myself and everyone in my family. We enjoy healthy salaries and don't spend money like we're Rockefellers or Vanderbilts. The only people I know who "struggle" in California are those who think they have to buy a new boat every year, a new set of boobs/plastic surgery, new jet skis, a new RV or kitchen remodel every five years....basically new "toys" all of the time. Then they'll crank up Fox News and blame "California" and "taxes" for their financial problems and whine and moan about leaving the state. California doesn't force anyone to make those choices, they do that on their own in order to fulfill some psychological "emptiness" they think they have. This is something that tends to afflict middle-class Whites and Filipinos more than any other group, for whatever reason?



I think that's because, even in heavily-Hispanic areas, most oil industry jobs are still held predominantly by Anglo Whites. Not saying that's a good thing or a bad thing. It just is.

In several oil-heavy areas in South and West Texas where I've done work, many of the oil field or oil-related jobs are very much held by Hispanics. Especially jobs that don't require extensive post-high-school education but still pay well. And oil field jobs often underpin the whole rest of the local economy as well. You're from CA...have you studied the local economies in TX to make such pronouncements?

[apple92680]

Originally Posted by LocalPlanner

In several oil-heavy areas in South and West Texas where I've done work, many of the oil field or oil-related jobs are very much held by Hispanics. Especially jobs that don't require extensive post-high-school education but still pay well. And oil field jobs often underpin the whole rest of the local economy as well. You're from CA...have you studied the local economies in TX to make such pronouncements?

Hispanic men working in the oil industry in one or two regions of Texas wouldn't really compromise a huge demographic -- especially not influential enough to shift the voting patters of the demographic at large. I'm sure far more Hispanic men, and Hispanic people in general, work in other industries (education/teachers/admins/districts, custodial, municipal city/county jobs, small business owners, state jobs, federal jobs/Border Patrol/military, office support, etc.)

What I'm saying is that you cannot attribute them turning away from the Democratic Party solely because of the fraction of men working in the oil industry. There are obviously other factors at play.

And how California, as a separate state, got drug into this conversation is beyond me??? I can only surmise that, in Texas -- when all else fails, change the subject to "California" ?

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by apple92680

Plenty of middle class people all over California, including myself and everyone in my family. We enjoy healthy salaries and don't spend money like we're Rockefellers or Vanderbilts. The only people I know who "struggle" in California are those who think they have to buy a new boat every year, a new set of boobs/plastic surgery, new jet skis, a new RV or kitchen remodel every five years....basically new "toys" all of the time. Then they'll crank up Fox News and blame "California" and "taxes" for their financial problems and whine and moan about leaving the state. California doesn't force anyone to make those choices, they do that on their own in order to fulfill some psychological "emptiness" they think they have. This is something that tends to afflict middle-class Whites and Filipinos more than any other group, for whatever reason?



I think that's because, even in heavily-Hispanic areas, most oil industry jobs are still held predominantly by Anglo Whites. Not saying that's a good thing or a bad thing. It just is.

1. California has worse real poverty metrics than any state with the possible exception of Hawaii. A few years ago ~30% of all US welfare recipients lived in CA. ~1 in 6 Californians struggles to pay rent and eat. Jet Skis and boob jobs aren't much of a problem for this group.

2. I'm in the oil business in West Texas......let's just say those of Hispanic extraction are very well represented in rig-side.

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by apple92680

Hispanic men working in the oil industry in one or two regions of Texas wouldn't really compromise a huge demographic -- especially not influential enough to shift the voting patters of the demographic at large. I'm sure far more Hispanic men, and Hispanic people in general, work in other industries (education/teachers/admins/districts, custodial, municipal city/county jobs, small business owners, state jobs, federal jobs/Border Patrol/military, office support, etc.)

What I'm saying is that you cannot attribute them turning away from the Democratic Party solely because of the fraction of men working in the oil industry. There are obviously other factors at play.

And how California, as a separate state, got drug into this conversation is beyond me??? I can only surmise that, in Texas -- when all else fails, change the subject to "California" ?

The number of Hispanics in the oil industry is not insignificant. On the contrary, it is MASSIVE.

This is true in Houston, West, and south Texas for sure. They are present in large numbers in all layers of the industry from oil field jobs to upper management.

I can assure you that the hostility towards the oil industry, whether that is well intended or not, is costing them large numbers of Hispanics votes in Texas.

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by apple92680

Hispanic men working in the oil industry in one or two regions of Texas wouldn't really compromise a huge demographic -- especially not influential enough to shift the voting patters of the demographic at large. I'm sure far more Hispanic men, and Hispanic people in general, work in other industries (education/teachers/admins/districts, custodial, municipal city/county jobs, small business owners, state jobs, federal jobs/Border Patrol/military, office support, etc.)

What I'm saying is that you cannot attribute them turning away from the Democratic Party solely because of the fraction of men working in the oil industry. There are obviously other factors at play.

And how California, as a separate state, got drug into this conversation is beyond me??? I can only surmise that, in Texas -- when all else fails, change the subject to "California" ?

Most of the publicity around the lower Democratic voting share among Hispanics in TX was focused in parts of the state where the oil industry creates a major share of decent jobs and is a foundation of the local economy. We're basically saying that this is not a coincidence. We're not denying that the reasons you stated may also be playing into it. But when a political party basically comes out as going after your very livelihood, wouldn't you think that would have an impact?

[redguard57]

You guys are leaving out the elephant in the room of the realignment hapoenning in American politics right now - it has to with education.

As long as we've tracked exit polls, which is back to the election of 1944, Republicans were always the party of people who called themselves "white collar." Starting in 1968 they began to ask what level of college education voters had. Again, Republicans won the vote of people who said they had a college degree. Democrats started winning the postgraduate vote in the 1980s but they were a small population until recently and still is fairly small.

2008 was the first election Democrats won the 4-year college educated vote, and only barely. They lost it in 2012, barely. But in 2016 we saw some very different behavior. Hillary won the college educated vote, and in 2020 Biden won them by more.

Look at the education stats in Texas - Moderator cut: link removed, competitor site

Look at the towns with the highest percentages of their population who never graduated high school - Pharr, Mission, Brownsville, McAllen... all have 30%+ who never graduated high school. Hmm see a pattern there? Trump has changed the Tepublican party from white collar to blue collar The Democrats increasingly are the party of the suburban yuppie professional class.

I'm born and raised from the RGV. My 9th grade class started with over 800 students and only about 425 walked the stage on graduation day. About 125 or so of us went to college. The vast majority of us that left the Valley for college never went back, most of us settled in Houston, DFW, SA or Austin.

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by redguard57

Look at the towns with the highest percentages of their population who never graduated high school - Pharr, Mission, Brownsville, McAllen... all have 30%+ who never graduated high school. Hmm see a pattern there? Trump has changed the Tepublican party from white collar to blue collar The Democrats increasingly are the party of the suburban yuppie professional class.

I'm born and raised from the RGV. My 9th grade class started with over 800 students and only about 425 walked the stage on graduation day. About 125 or so of us went to college. The vast majority of us that left the Valley for college never went back, most of us settled in Houston, DFW, SA or Austin.

So much truth here.

I think if Trump has given the Republicans anything, its the blue collar populist vote. By that same token, if hes given the Democrats anything, its the educated and suburban vote.

Have a look at the trends from the last year on the Cook Partisan Voter Index. The districts that are shifting right are mostly in the Rust Belt and Midwest, the RGV in Texas, and South Florida. The districts that are shifting left are almost all in suburban Houston, DFW, Atlanta, and Los Angeles.

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/n...an-voter-index