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Solar Storms on MPBN -
I heard part of this yesterday, today I found the link and I was able to listen to all of it. Very interesting.
Including in the discussion:
Rep. Andrea Boland/D-Sanford
Tom Popik -Foundation for Resilient Societies
Max Riseman -Meteorologist
Dr. Peter Pry -EMPACT America
Brian Conroy -Central Maine Power
For highlights:
a- in the past decade our grid customer base has grown 25%, while spending on infrastructure maintenance has dropped 30%.
b- we had a solar event in 1989 that destroyed a component of the national grid.
c- in the 1800s we had two solar events that were both capable of 100% destroying our current national grid.
d- utility companies today are strong lobbies and have not allowed congress to mandate equipment updates in the face of known dangers.
e- In the event of a large solar flare, our entire national grid could be fried. In such an event, estimates range from 75% to 90% of our population will not survive.
f- North Korea has already tested a missile to see that it could reach the USA without detection, to deliver to the USA a nuclear EMP device. That missile was successful. And NK has repeatedly threaten to launch a nuclear device at the USA.
These were not tin-foil hatters. These were industry reps, Phds, and a state legislator who has been talking with many other industry engineers.
I was flabbergasted (but should not have been) to find out that many of the replacement parts being installed after failure, have been made in CHINA! In the past 3-4 years here, especially in the Oct/Nov timeframe with hurricanes, freak snow storms, even a (mini) tornado, we have experienced power outages lasting 10 days to 2 weeks -- unheard-of in past years. It's not the weather that's gotten more freaky, it's the power grid getting more rickety.
The grid in older places of the country, like New England, is over 100 years old in all but the newest developments -- and even those are connected to the really old stuff. There were few to no deaths in our last few years of power failures, but that was largely due to generator use, which could not continue indefinitely due to gas shortages. If the trucks can't get through, and the station has no genset, even people with their own will run out of fuel -- any kind of fuel.
So you may be right about death rates, but 75 to 90% seems high to me.
The most likely threat is a hacker bringing the grid down, and it taking weeks, to get the lights on. Total chaos will ensue within the first week.
I was living in Italy when the 2000 thing happened. A week or two before, I remember talking to a railroad engineer there. Every engineer uses a pocket watch, and goes by a strict written schedule. He was confused by what we thought computers were supposed to do.
Since the previous century had three solar events that damaged our grid. I suspect this is a much great likelihood of happening again.
The most likely threat is a hacker bringing the grid down, and it taking weeks, to get the lights on. Total chaos will ensue within the first week.
While I agree that a hacker could cause mayhem, it would take much longer than "weeks" to get it back to working. Change that to years, if a thorough job is done on it! I don't think just one week would cause "total chaos" (we've been longer without power here), but certainly my timeframe of years, if it was completely brought down, would lead to "total chaos".
In the panel discussion, there seems to be agreement that this will happen at some point, and that the power industry is united in fighting any effort to be prepared for it.
I don't think just one week would cause "total chaos" (we've been longer without power here), but certainly my timeframe of years, if it was completely brought down, would lead to "total chaos".
If we are talking about the majority of the country being without power, yes, a week would cause "total chaos" and a year would probably mean the death of at least half our population.
If we are talking about the majority of the country being without power, yes, a week would cause "total chaos" and a year would probably mean the death of at least half our population.
The discussion of the 'expert's in the OP claimed between 50% and 90% loss within one year.
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