Quote:
Originally Posted by Submariner
For highlights:
a- in the past decade our grid customer base has grown 25%, while spending on infrastructure maintenance has dropped 30%.
|
Okay.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Submariner
b- we had a solar event in 1989 that destroyed a component of the national grid.
|
That is a bit of an exaggeration.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Submariner
c- in the 1800s we had two solar events that were both capable of 100% destroying our current national grid.
|
I'm not aware of that.
I am aware of the Carrington Event. It is true that a Carrington Event now would destroy 100% of your Electric Grid, and a large percentage of electronic components of a personal nature, as well as those used in business and industry, including vehicles.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Submariner
d- utility companies today are strong lobbies and have not allowed congress to mandate equipment updates in the face of known dangers.
|
I lack sufficient information to comment on that.
I'm not convinced Congress has the power or authority under the Constitution to regulate utilities such as water or electricity or telephone.
The several States would certainly have that power.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Submariner
e- In the event of a large solar flare, our entire national grid could be fried.
|
That is not entirely accurate and smells like the cries of alarmists.
Solar Flares come in five different flavors.
A, B, C & M Class Solar Flares are of no consequence, although C & M Class Solar Flares have the potential to disrupt communications in certain band-widths by ionizing regions of the Stratosphere and Mesosphere.
The only Class that affects you is the X-Class.
Not just any X-Class Solar Flare, but X-Class Solar Flares greater than Magnitude 15.
1989 was an X-Class Magnitude 23.
Why no problem?
Because it wasn't accompanied by a proton storm with the protons having an average energy of 30 MeV or greater (Million electron Volts).
That, is the key to understanding all of this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Submariner
In such an event, estimates range from 75% to 90% of our population will not survive.
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Submariner
The discussion of the 'expert's in the OP claimed between 50% and 90% loss within one year.
|
And that is because they read my posts here on C-D years ago.
You're only 4 years late with the warnings, but hey, I guess late is better than never.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Submariner
f- North Korea has already tested a missile to see that it could reach the USA without detection, to deliver to the USA a nuclear EMP device. That missile was successful. And NK has repeatedly threaten to launch a nuclear device at the USA.
|
That is complete utter BS tin-foil-hat-prepper-stupidity-and-nonsense. You see this...."
a nuclear EMP device"...that's fear-mongering sensationalism.
All nuclear devices by their very nature generate an electromagnetic pulse. The strength, intensity and duration of the electromagnetic pulse is a function of the warhead's size in terms of yield in kilotons. The scope of the area impacted, is a function of height of burst.
North Korea is no threat to the US.
What's the largest nuclear warhead North Korean can build? In theory, ~200 kilotons. To go bigger than 200 kt requires the use of fusion, and North Korea has neither the education, the training, the skill, the experience, the know-how or the resources to build a fission-fusion device.
The practical limit for a plutonium-based device is 140 kt. The French had a warhead like that. On a missile? Nope, that can only be delivered by aircraft (I think the French used the Etenard).
Clinton gave North Korea two plutonium-producing nuclear reactors. Based on their operational time, the maximum amount of plutonium would be about 60 kg -62 kg.
Recoverable plutonium, well, that would depend on the separation method used, and how efficient the North Koreans were in operating it, meaning probably not very efficient, so say 55 kg, and then they had at least two test shots of 1 kt each, so that would be an additional 4.5 kg to 5.0 kg of plutonium, leaving them with about 45 kg.
The evidence I see shows North Korea to have 8-10 1 kt devices, or perhaps 5-6 1 kt devices and one 10 kt to 20 kt device.
That's nothing to worry about.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Submariner
These were not tin-foil hatters. These were industry reps, Phds, and a state legislator who has been talking with many other industry engineers.
|
Okay, but they could have gotten their point across without fear-mongering.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Submariner
I found it interesting that they all admit these events are expected to happen 2 to 3 times per century.
|
Uh, I am not seeing that at all, and I see no evidence to support it.
Let's say the Carrington Event is the standard by which we judge all others. What can we say? Every single time the Sun exits a Solar Minimum, you have a Carrington Event.
Sun exits the Dalton Minimum, and you have
the Carrington Event. Sun exits the Spoerer Mimimun, the Maunder Minimum and all the others, you have a Carrington-like Event within 5-20 years.
They didn't have technology centuries ago, but they did have astronomers and astrologers and scientists who wrote extensively about extremely peculiar Northern Lights that could be seen from places on Earth -- like south of the Equator -- where they should not be able to be seen, or which had very bright intensity lasting for month after month after month.
Some scientists claim we have been in a Solar Minimum for about 15 years now. Others, for example 2 German scientists are saying that we are entering a Minimum. If so, then when the Sun exists, you will have a Carrington Event, guaranteed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Submariner
No state is prepared for these routine events.
|
But they are
not routine. They are very rare.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Submariner
When it happens, our nation only has enough linemen to repair one state at a time.
|
Not if they're dead.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Submariner
Repair parts are not manufactured in the USA, and there is no stock-pile of parts in the USA.
|
I have discussed that on several different threads.
You know those transformers that sit on telephone poles? It takes about 6-8 months to make one of those.
A Carrington Event would destroy everyone one of those transformers in the US and Canada, and part of northern Mexico. And don't forget that North Central Europe was affected (not sure about Eastern Europe).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Submariner
In the panel discussion, there seems to be agreement that this will happen at some point, and that the power industry is united in fighting any effort to be prepared for it.
|
Notwithstanding the fact that I don't know if the power industry is fighting it or not, I still see that as a grotesque characterization.
As I mentioned on several other threads,
in 2010 the estimated cost to upgrade the Electrical Grid in the US was $3 TRILLION to $3.5 TRILLION.
You don't have that money.
Are you ready for the bad news?
"Upgrade" means removing all of the analog components still in use from the 1920s-1980s and replacing those components with chip-based computerized components.
You want to protect those components from EMP?
Okay, fine.....add another $2 TRILLION to $2.5 TRILLION to the price tag.
You think the "power industry" should operate at $0 Profit and fix this? Okay, assuming you don't all get wiped out by a Carrington Event, you might actually get your entire Electrical Grid upgraded by the year 2400.
Electromagnetically...
Mircea
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
