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There's some interesting charts & graphs to go along with this article. It's a bit too much to post it all here - so I recommend if you're interested check out the article from the link below (no paywall). This article originally appeared in the Miami Herald today (May 29th).
Florida faces hectic hurricane season. Can science say who will get hit in coming months?
The bottom line of every preseason hurricane forecast this spring has been sobering, even a little scary. Meteorologists and their computer models all agree that it’s going to be a super busy and perhaps record-breaking season — and that with so many expected storms, it’s very likely that somebody, somewhere is going to get smacked this year.
But exactly who and where?
That’s been a question many scientists have long considered impossible to answer months ahead of any storm forming.
But an increasing number of experts are starting to take a crack at it. This year, for instance both AccuWeather and Colorado State University included landfall chances in their advance forecasts for hurricane season 2024, which officially starts on Monday and runs through November.
Their odds will only add to Florida’s seasonal hurricane anxiety: CSU, for instance, predicts a near-lock that the state will be impacted somewhere by a tropical system and a roughly one-in-three chance that South Florida will see a hurricane. Accuweather predicts four to six direct hits somewhere along the United States coastline this season.
Meteorologists stress considerable uncertainty remains in such long-range forecasts but that they also reflect a sign of evolving science and constantly improving understanding of tropical weather systems.
“No matter how bananas the hurricane season, the odds of any one spot getting hit are low,” said Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist and researcher who oversees the closely watched Colorado State University forecasts. “But when you have an environment as amped up as it is in 2024, the odds of it being a quiet season for everybody are extremely low.”
There are lots of reasons why forecasting landfalls is much more daunting than seasonal numbers. The global forces that brew up storms, such as hot Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico temperatures, can be measured and tend to change slowly. But many of the forces that steer them can be regional and mercurial, such as weather fronts sweeping across the Southeast United States that can push storms back out to sea. That’s why the National Hurricane Center predicts storm tracks out only five days — and even those increasingly accurate plots can shift in the last days or hours before landfall. There are plenty of recent examples.
AccuWeather, for instance, also compares the upcoming season to other meteorologically similar seasons to analyze which spots got hit more often. They also factor in the warmer sea surface temperatures we’ve seen in recent years, thanks to human-caused global warming, which are linked with more storm formations.
“We plotted storm landfalls of those years and we highlighted areas there’s clustering as areas that are most vulnerable,” said Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane forecaster for AccuWeather. “It’s not perfect
CSU’s forecast for this year gives Miami-Dade a 36% shot at seeing impacts from a hurricane, which is higher than the average 23% chance of impacts from a hurricane from 1880-2020. For all of Florida, CSU gives the state a 96% chance of seeing fallout from some type of storm this season.
But, like with the stock market, past performance is no guarantee of future results. And the landfall forecasts are pretty broad. Predicting a tropical system might impact Florida during any season is a pretty good bet. No forecaster can say exactly where or when storms will land in what promised to be the busy months ahead.
As people move around the country, a phenomenon called “brain drain” is plaguing some U.S. cities. That is to say, people with college educations are leaving certain areas.
In two Gulf Coast metro areas, the opposite was true last year, according to HireAHelper, a company that specializes in moving.
In fact, Sarasota-Bradenton experienced the largest “brain gain” — or influx of college-educated residents — among metro areas around the country, the company reports.
In 2023, there was a 135% increase in college-educated people moving to the Sarasota-Bradenton area, according to the report. College-educated is defined as having at least a bachelor’s degree.
While Sarasota-Bradenton topped the list of metros gaining college-educated residents, it was one of three Florida areas among the top 10 fastest-growing areas for college-educated residents in the country.
Beginning with her junior season at Venice High, Allison has competed in golf (after not making the volleyball team), weightlifting and beach volleyball.
That ability to overcome her disorder and transform into a three-sport athlete is why Schapley was selected as the Herld-Tribune 2024 Courage Award winner. She will be honored during the Sarasota-Manatee Sports Awards event being held Friday at the Van Wezel Performing Arts Hall.
The Conservation Foundation of the Gulf Coast announced Wednesday that John Patterson, husband of former Sarasota city and county commissioner Nora Patterson, a land preservation proponent, will leave the Conservation Foundation Land Fund with a portion of the family's estate.
"Funds will be designated to Conservation Foundation’s Land Fund in memory of Nora’s impact and lasting mark on our community," spokesperson Sam Valentin said in a press release. The percentage was not identified.
Nora Patterson, 79, died in February after years of public service. She was elected to the Sarasota City Commission, where she served for eight years, and then to the Sarasota County County Commission in 1998, and served until 2014. Patterson also served on the boards of Planned Parenthood of Southwest Florida, Sarasota Teen Court, and Sarasota United Way.
The city and county commissions named a park at the north bridge to Siesta Key the Nora Patterson Bay Island Park in 2015, to recognize her advocacy for conservation.
Based in Osprey, the Conservation Foundation works throughout Charlotte, Collier, Lee, Manatee, and Sarasota, Counties on land conservation programs. The foundation called the donation a "transformative gift."
Sarasota luxury condo breaks downtown sales price record (Photo Gallery)
A17th-floor condo in the Epoch in Sarasota has sold for $11.35 million, setting a new price benchmark for a downtown condo property.
The most recent mark surpassed a June 2023 condo sale in the same building when the 18th floor unit in the Epoch at 605 S. Gulfstream Avenue sold for $11.15 million.
While a slower sales pace has returned to Sarasota's luxury market after a pandemic buying surge drove prices to new heights throughout the region, luxury sales records continue to be broken even as some properties are sitting longer,
Morris has been a full time Realtor in Sarasota for the past 25 years. She said while there's no doubt that the current market isn't as hot as it was even a year ago, she believes that luxury buyers remain in Sarasota, although now they are a bit more "price and value sensitive" before signing on the dotted line.
"The premium properties will still sell," she said. "This record sale says a lot about the Sarasota market; we just closed a record sale in this market."
Morris said the previous sellers remained in Sarasota, closing on a property in the 4200 block of Bay Shore Road north of downtown for $9.5 million.
At a City of North Port commission meeting on Tuesday, the board discussed a presentation provided by the Sarasota Alliance for Historic Preservation.
The alliance, used Sweet Sparkman’s Feb. 28th ‘Warm Mineral Springs Building Complex Post-Storm Assessment and Options report.’ According to the presentation, that report estimated a full restoration of the three historic buildings to cost between $11-13.1 million.
“To take what they have in existing, already allocated funding for Warm Mineral Springs, and they could more than double it by leveraging it for matching grants and for other kinds of financing to fully restore the three buildings,” said Jan Vertefeuille, the Director of the Sarasota Alliance for Historic Preservation.
Vertefeuille said the buildings are significantly important. The presentation added in 1959, the year North Port was incorporated, the three buildings were designed by Jack West, one of the founders of the Sarasota School of Architecture.
Warm Mineral Springs structures receive stay of execution from North Port City Commission
NORTH PORT – Three iconic buildings at Warm Mineral Springs Park received a stay of execution Tuesday night, after the North Port City Commission unanimously agreed to resurrect talks to preserve them.
Two other votes involved directing staff to work with consultants on updated cost estimates to restore all three historic structures, as well as the cost for flood mitigation additions and hurricane hardening, and to estimate the cost of insuring all three structures once they are restored.
Meetings are also continuing with other governments and nonprofits that would secure preservation of the 61.4 acres surrounding the 21.6 historical Warm Mineral Springs site.
A geotechnical study of the entire 83-acre park site sought by residents will be discussed at a future meeting.
The key vote reversed a March 5 directive for city staff to raze the three buildings and replace them with one minimalistic structure.
A crowd that packed both commission chambers and Room 244, used for overflow, was on hand for the Warm Mineral Springs issue and the first hearing on the extensive rewrite of the city’s long-range growth plan and future land use map. Many of the speakers – both in open public comment and during the Warm Mineral Springs discussion – commented on both topics.
The Warm Mineral Springs discussion ended after 11 p.m. while the overall meeting was adjourned shortly after 2:30 a.m., upon conclusion of the land use hearing, with other items bumped to a future agenda.
Here’s what you need to know about the Warm Mineral Springs meeting.
SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - Slightly drier air has moved in and allowed the high temperatures in the afternoon to climb to the low to mid 90s near the coast and some mid to upper 90s inland. At the coast the onshore winds will increase the moisture content of the air in the afternoon and bring some high “feels like” temperatures near 102.
Rain fall remains scarce, with only a few well inland showers to be found. The rainfall we do get will be on the light side. Things may change a bit on Friday as a cold front approaches and increases our chance for a thunderstorm or two and rain showers. This will be in the later afternoon and early evening.
These afternoon rain chances will continue into the weekend as moisture increases. Even if the rain chances are better, they will still remain low. The summer rainy season has not kicked in just yet.
Sarasota developers want to team up on a decadelong effort to bring a right-sized convention center and adjacent hotel to Sarasota, and they are asking the Downtown Improvement District Board of Directors for help.
The idea is to redevelop the south side of the block of Ringling Boulevard between Orange Avenue and Pine Place, the site currently occupied by the city-owned Federal Building and the U.S. Postal Service office and its vehicle maintenance yard. The federal building would remain and the new construction would occur on the post office property.
Sarasota developers Mark Kauffman and Sadek Omar, managing partner of Jebcore Development, pitched the idea to the DID board on March 5. Two months later, the board heard from Wayne Appleby, the city’s economic development manager, who suggested the board consider backing the idea by lobbying the Sarasota City Commission.
Kauffman and Omar told board members much has to happen first, including the city gaining ownership of the post office property. They said the U.S. Postal Service is looking to relocate both the main office and the maintenance yard in separate locations, and that often when the federal government vacates property it is deeded to the host city.
The pitch is that the city would retain ownership of the property and lease it to the partnership, which would build and operate the facilities.
A nearly two-decade-old flight path over Longboat Key changed, according to recent communications between Sarasota Bradenton International Airport staff and Longboat Key.
On May 21, SRQ Senior Vice President, Operations & Public Safety Lionel Guilbert emailed Town Manager Howard Tipton to notify him of the change in air traffic procedure made by the Federal Aviation Administration.
Dozens of Sarasota County School police officers have been honored for their bravery in a ceremony at Sarasota County School Board Chambers Wednesday morning.
Those who protect and serve Sarasota County Schools have been honored in a special ceremony included three officers who put their lives on the line for the community.
Officers Andre Jenkins, David Singer and Sergeant Todd Perna all have one thing in common; they are heroes.
Officer Singer quickly removed a loaded gun from a student’s waistband at Woodland Middle School last October. Officer Jenkins responded to danger at Booker Middle School and helped get students and faculty to safety while Sgt. Perna tracked down a student with a gun and neutralized the threat.
“I truly believe we have the safest schools in the state of Florida and across the nation, the experience, the number of years of experience that our law enforcement agencies have. If you add it all up i think its a thousand years,” said Superintendent Terry Connor.
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