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Old 02-04-2022, 11:44 AM
 
373 posts, read 309,575 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
Fixed income has lost more than 7% this year in real return ..
I'm in fixed income and sure didn't lose 7%. In fact, did a lot better than folks in stocks. I'm sure you are making a general statement and being "selective" on a particular investment in trying to prove your point, but your way is not the best way for many retirees.

Just saying.
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Old 02-04-2022, 12:15 PM
 
106,594 posts, read 108,739,314 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dallasdean View Post
I'm in fixed income and sure didn't lose 7%. In fact, did a lot better than folks in stocks. I'm sure you are making a general statement and being "selective" on a particular investment in trying to prove your point, but your way is not the best way for many retirees.

Just saying.
No , you just don’t understand that it is real returns that count ….cds as an example are down 6-7% adjusted for inflation .

While stocks and more aggressive assets are down , plus the inflation , over time they beat inflation .

CDs and cash instruments have had negative real returns more than half of the time the last 40 years and when they didn’t they beat inflation by very little.

Fixed income has failed to last at a 4% draw rate inflation adjusted draw so many times already over the 121 rolling 30 year retirement time frames it’s success rate is considered unsafe.

A conservative balanced portfolio is the best way to go .maybe even something as simple as vanguard Wellesly

Just sayin
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Old 02-04-2022, 12:21 PM
 
Location: Central IL
20,726 posts, read 16,355,663 times
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OP - in FOUR decades you've only lost money NOW? Believe me, you've been "down" you just didn't know it because you weren't paying attention. And that was a good thing. Just let it ride...take it out now you won't earn a dime and you'll never figure out the "right" time to get back in. No reason to feel sick at all.
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Old 02-04-2022, 12:30 PM
 
373 posts, read 309,575 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
No , you just don’t understand that it is real returns that count
Lol! I fully understand. You said with fixed income you would be down 7% this year. I understand you are talking about including inflation.

But you are simply wrong. I am in fixed income and I am not down 7% (including inflation) this year.

Some people can roll up a magazine and look through it ... thinking they see the big picture.

Just saying
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Old 02-04-2022, 12:37 PM
 
106,594 posts, read 108,739,314 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dallasdean View Post
Lol! I fully understand. You said with fixed income you would be down 7% this year. I understand you are talking about including inflation.

But you are simply wrong. I am in fixed income and I am not down 7% (including inflation) this year.

Some people can roll up a magazine and look through it ... thinking they see the big picture.

Just saying
So tell us what your fixed income investment is
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Old 02-04-2022, 01:08 PM
 
373 posts, read 309,575 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
So tell us what your fixed income investment is
Bonds

But how does that help you? Junk bonds or grade A? Foreign or domestic? ETFs or individual? Short or long? Trade or hold?
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Old 02-04-2022, 01:16 PM
 
106,594 posts, read 108,739,314 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dallasdean View Post
Bonds

But how does that help you? Junk bonds or grade A? Foreign or domestic? ETFs or individual? Short or long? Trade or hold?

There are pretty much no bonds this year where if you had them a while are not worth less than par if you wanted to value them today so they are likely negative in value .

I know my short term etf bond funds shy and vgsh are down , my high yield etf hyg and sphix are down , my total bond fund is down . Treasuries are all negative for the year


Even TIP is down ytd

So what etf do you have that isn’t negative ?
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Old 02-04-2022, 01:26 PM
 
373 posts, read 309,575 times
Reputation: 568
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
There are pretty much no bonds this year where if you had them a while are not worth less than par if you wanted to value them today so they are likely negative in value .

I know my short term etf bond funds shy and vgsh are down , my high yield etf hyg and sphix are down , my total bond fund is down . Treasuries are all negative for the year


Even TIP is down ytd

So what etf do you have that isn’t negative ?
So you averaged a 7% down this year?

Personally, don't use ETF
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Old 02-04-2022, 01:30 PM
 
106,594 posts, read 108,739,314 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dallasdean View Post
So you averaged a 7% down this year?

Personally, don't use ETF
if we are looking at real returns over a year period then one would be down whatever the years inflation is plus whatever the bond fund , bond value or etf is .

That is what inflation adjusted real returns are .

If it is cash instruments or money markets then you are likely getting under 1% in inflation averaging 7% .. that would be a minus 6% real return.

The problem is unlike stocks cash instruments don’t average out well over longer periods of time and are usually going to have negative real returns over most time frames after inflation and taxes
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Old 02-04-2022, 01:55 PM
 
10,226 posts, read 7,576,434 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
if we are looking at real returns over a year period then one would be down whatever the years inflation is plus whatever the bond fund , bond value or etf is .

That is what inflation adjusted real returns are .

If it is cash instruments or money markets then you are likely getting under 1% in inflation averaging 7% .. that would be a minus 6% real return.

The problem is unlike stocks cash instruments don’t average out well over longer periods of time and are usually going to have negative real returns over most time frames after inflation and taxes
By "fixed income" and "bonds," I wonder if he means I Bonds? The current rate is 7.12%, I think. Or individual bonds?
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