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Interesting to think about this in reference to my own neighborhood. When we moved in we were surrounded by older folks. In eleven years’ time there has been an almost complete changeover. We are now surrounded by young families with little kids everywhere. In another handful of years it will be our turn, and the cycle will continue.
I’ve read seniors like to stay in their home more now.
25 years ago there was no such thing as "home healthcare."
Now there is, and Medicare will pay for it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hefe
Almost identical story in today's (Saturday 11/23) Wall Street Journal. In a nutshell, there are so many more Boomers than GenX that the inventory they will gradually vacant will outstrip housing demand & the numbers needed to buy & keep prices, & probably regions, stable.
That's hardly news. Economists Greg Mankiw and David Weil said that in 1989.
Sometime this year, the millennial generation — those born from 1981 to 1996 — will overtake baby boomers as the largest adult population group in the United States, according to government data analyzed by the Pew Research Center.
This
Millennials are the #1 home buying group. They're not buying Boomer McMansions but they're buying everything else.
Tech workers Portland Or and Seattle WA, tend to prefer apartment living. They want the mobility, knowing that they will change jobs or job location fairy frequently. Portland and Seattle are land constrained but have a pretty good and improving public transportation infrastructure. Eventually some of the tech workers will buy SFH but I think the 2+2 apartment/condo will be enough.
YMMV
One of my kid’s lab partner just bought a house in Seattle, by herself, two years out of college. Amazing.
Boomers - 76 million from 1946 to 1964
Millennials - 71 million from 1981 to 1996 (not the years I used originally)
How many boomers are left today:
Found this: (obviously out of date) - I'd guess about 55 million are left now
There were actually a total of 76 million births in the United States from 1946 to 1964, the 19 years usually called the “baby boom.” Of the 76 million baby boomers born, nearly 11 million had died by 2012, leaving some 65.2 million survivors.Apr 16, 2014
Interesting to think about this in reference to my own neighborhood. When we moved in we were surrounded by older folks. In eleven years’ time there has been an almost complete changeover. We are now surrounded by young families with little kids everywhere. In another handful of years it will be our turn, and the cycle will continue.
So we think.
In my mother's neighborhood, the first three decades, at least, she said most everyone seemed to age in place. Since many of those homes have been sold for the first time without being new-construction, they have been occupied by families who move AGAIN in a short number of years.
There is a GIS map that will highlight the parcels sold in the past 3 years. Today, it indicates nearly half of them. This was not always the case. Often, it would be YEARS before ONE house came up for sale. Now, it is commonplace to see several homes for sale at the same time.
Boomers - 76 million from 1946 to 1964
Millennials - 71 million from 1981 to 1996 (not the years I used originally)
How many boomers are left today:
Found this: (obviously out of date) - I'd guess about 55 million are left now
There were actually a total of 76 million births in the United States from 1946 to 1964, the 19 years usually called the “baby boom.” Of the 76 million baby boomers born, nearly 11 million had died by 2012, leaving some 65.2 million survivors.Apr 16, 2014
Bad math. The Boomer count is 18 years. The Millennial count is 15 years. There are more 25 year olds than 62 year olds and 1957 was the peak Boomer year.
Millennials aren’t buy in Geezerville but they’re buying like crazy in affluent suburbia as they hit breeding age. With the much lower birth rate, the demand for large houses is off. It’s often tough to sell a 5 or 6 bedroom house.
Beach property if the sea levels rise like the Democrats insist is coming soon.
82 Days Underwater: The Tide Is High, but They’re Holding On
A brutal “king tides” season made worse by climate change has flooded the streets of a Florida Keys community for nearly three months.
I am a bit surprised that no one believes immigration would take up a noticable amount of slack. I don't know whether it will or won't, but it at least seems like a possibility.
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Boomers - millennials
