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Many would like to stay in their homes. Many are planning to do so. But there comes a time for many (maybe most?) when they either have to go to assisted living or a nursing home. Then they die and the house goes on the market.
...or the heirs of the boomers can take over the property. If the heirs are still in the basement, maybe they can move up to the first floor.
The real estate market is just the tip of the iceberg. The graying of the boomers are also killing NASCAR, Harley Davidson, the Shriners, the Mason's and Knights of Columbus. Even the Catholic Church in RI and Mass has been closing churches.
NASCAR is killing NASCAR. Boomers are not causing the death of NASCAR.
The same folks predicting the 'silver tsunami' are also predicting that climate change is going to wipe-out great swaths of oceanfront property. Sounds like one will cancel-out the other.
It's all in market timing. Everybody alive today will be long dead before Florida goes under water. That's a problem for the next century, not for boomers and their heirs.
We spent a week in the Silicon Valley area of CA and saw an interesting dynamic for real estate. Houses of all types from '50s bungalows to lofty estates are valued at ridiculous prices, $750 to $1500 per SF. Not many are for sale because there are few buyers that can finance the purchase. .....
My daughter has lived in the Bay area for the past 9 years and her experience does not at all match your observations.
She tried and tried and tried to buy a condo. The condos came on the market, yes at prices most of us would consider ridiculous, and they were instantly sold, usually for cash. A couple of years ago she tried to buy a house and the same thing kept happening. Houses went on the market and were typically sold for cash within a day or two of being listed. I am sure there are plenty of would be buyers that cannot finance the high costs or just plain cannot afford a house of any type. But there are plenty more who can and have the cash in hand.
The reason there are few houses for sale is they are gone instantly and often for cash and often for more than the asking price. Potential sellers are NOT just sitting afraid to list because there are no buyers.
I can see that happening, but where will the next crop of retirees go, then? They don't like the beach/warmer areas?
Maybe they won't retire...
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewbieHere
I’ve read seniors like to stay in their home more now. I think it’s from the wsj too.
There is a huge bubble of baby boomers. They own homes. They will die. When they die their homes will go on the market.
There will not be enough buyers because of the size of the baby boomer population relative to the population younger than them.
I can see the problem being particularly acute in areas that people leave as well as destination areas.
Almost identical story in today's (Saturday 11/23) Wall Street Journal. In a nutshell, there are so many more Boomers than GenX that the inventory they will gradually vacant will outstrip housing demand & the numbers needed to buy & keep prices, & probably regions, stable. Also GenX & younger types aren't seen to be interested in over-55 developments (The Villages, Sun City, etc.,) & in fact are gradually leaving rural & rustbelt areas for more urban regions with more walkable/mass transit options with parks, restaurants, etc... with easily accessible social opportunities.
They give an example about how some of the newer "over-55" developments being designed in AZ are now incorporating "neighborhoods" to include schools & other amenities to appeal to young families as a necessity for their future.
Yes, your traditional Sun City style developments will have to adjust - but one likes Margaritaville 55+ communities are doing great. We've been to the one in Hilton Head (actually Hardeeville, SC) and everyone looking there were early to mid 50s, like us.
Location: Was Midvalley Oregon; Now Eastside Seattle area
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^ Hefe, that's what we did. We retired , From suburbia Salem OR to urban Redmond WA.
factoid: Both are growing tremendously.
Salem OR with a pop ~180k, has 6 high schools, +1800ea and installing portables, grades 9-12. Household income ~60k. We had 2 cars doing 10k miles/yr-each.
Redmond WA with a pop ~80k, has 1 high school, ~ 1700students, 9-12. Household incm +$100k. Now 1 car, averaging 80mi/mn or ~1000mi/yr. We walk to everywhere or bus to Seattle - surrounding cities. More dogs than under 18yo.
There is a huge bubble of baby boomers. They own homes. They will die. When they die their homes will go on the market.
There will not be enough buyers because of the size of the baby boomer population relative to the population younger than them.
I can see the problem being particularly acute in areas that people leave as well as destination areas.
I think there will be enough potential buyers, they just won't have enough money to buy the homes at current value.
The retiree areas may well generate less interest for future buyers, but then again younger folks today could find them more appealing as they themselves age.
My daughter has lived in the Bay area for the past 9 years and her experience does not at all match your observations.
She tried and tried and tried to buy a condo. The condos came on the market, yes at prices most of us would consider ridiculous, and they were instantly sold, usually for cash. A couple of years ago she tried to buy a house and the same thing kept happening. Houses went on the market and were typically sold for cash within a day or two of being listed. I am sure there are plenty of would be buyers that cannot finance the high costs or just plain cannot afford a house of any type. But there are plenty more who can and have the cash in hand.
The reason there are few houses for sale is they are gone instantly and often for cash and often for more than the asking price. Potential sellers are NOT just sitting afraid to list because there are no buyers.
The condos your daughter tried to buy are typically under $500K, the houses are typically $1M+. I’m sure there are houses sold at those prices, but seriously who in their right mind would pay $1500/SF for a dowdy, 70 year old house in a working-class neighborhood? Only speculators or ignorant foreigners.
Another interesting data point is a seeming glut in commercial real estate in the area between Milpitas and Santa Clara. Dozens of big empty buildings, most of them quite modern, in an area that otherwise looked affluent. A short distance away there were construction cranes working to erect some corporation's brand new HQ building
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, From suburbia Salem OR to urban Redmond WA. 
