Which do you believe to be the bigger threat, China or Russia? (Iraq, wage)
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I think China, for their economic clout, which is the TRUE measure of power, both for good or for evil.
Russia and China have severe problems that we don't read about too much in our press, though a few folks on financial websites have spoken to this in recent months. Imagine China, a major recession, a hundred million unemployed start clamoring for work, or food, or.... justice. Not a pretty picture. Falling oil prices have hugely hurt Russia's ambitions, now priced out of their reach. We have our problems, that's for sure, but we have something they don't have - 300,000,000 Americans with a can-do history.
In the past I believe I was rather too quick to dismiss China, mostly in part because of its inability to feed itself. Even now China imports nearly 30% of its food and to be required to import such a vital commodity to national stability makes one vulnerable to economic as well as environmental disaster.
However, being an admirer of that aspect of Asian culture that has a tendency to be generational in its thinking. Most Asian cultures discuss their futures in terms of decades and generations, as opposed to us in the west which view the future in terms of the next fiscal quarter.
This passage caught my eye and may be dismissed as mere luck, I believe there to be more to it.
Quote:
However, one must always bear in mind that if Beijing indeed succeeds in becoming the ‘first among equals’, it would not be the first time such event takes place. The ‘Middle Kingdom’ was already a mighty empire thousands of years before the US was even founded. Thus, China (both as a State and as a civilization) has flourished for centuries and has outlived the Roman, Persian, Arabian, Turkish, Mongol, and British empires, which is by no means an easy accomplishment.
While the inclusive and rather isolationist nature of China and its culture has tended to keep it behind the curve in modern times, China is quickly catching on by patiently and quietly waiting on the sideline. While many in the west throw their fortunes in the Middle East and interventionist basket, their interest on the principle is racking up some cash.
China ,-hands down. The burgeoning population and the work ethic and culture of success of the elites is the reason. I was surprised to learn not too long ago that the population of Russia is only 120 million. Having witnessed most of their history as the USSR that came as a shock to me. There is power in numbers. I also suspect that they have concentrated wealth obtained from the empire.
The Chinese have the mindset of the hive and will require resources as they progress. I believe in most of our lifetimes China will be the greatest threat to security in the Middle East. I see China as assuming the role of the U.S. as the leader in products. This will require the type of dirty energy that we are trying to wean ourselves from. We will surely wean ourselves from dirty energy,albeit at great cost to us in the transition stages. We will be better off for it for our future. This is why we must maintain our status as beyond challenge in military advanced weaponry. We must remain beyond challenge. WE will eventually let them succeed in capitalization of the dirty energy. Technological advances will propell us into a secure energy role for the future. Advances in hydrogen and electric automobiles and in conservation awareness as simple as windows, doors, insulation etc. That is the kind of people we are and we will prevail with what is required of us. Pollution will not be quelled because of the Chinese factor but alas global warming is 99% hoax anyway as far as negative impact on all our futures.
The success of humanity will be our dedication to bringing population explosion under control. Something that a concerted emphasis by eletist educators have tried to diminish over the past few decades is the limits to growth. The most conscious society on earth the U.S.A. has consciously and deliberatley addressed this problem for our society even to the extent of agressively promoting abortion. In many ways our greatest threat is contracepting ourselves out of superiority. On the other hand, already, humanity has infested the planet.
I think that upon careful analysis it is rather obvious that Russia is a far greater threat to the US than China. At first blush, China's massive population and growing economic power may imply a greater threat, but then there is the problematic fact that much of China's massive economic growth is predicated upon trade and engagement with the US; it's a dirty little secret that, despite all the rhetoric to the contrary, China needs the US in order to continue improving economically and, therefore, in order to continue providing improved living conditions for its enormous population. Additionally, the US needs China almost as much as the China needs US; they control much of our debt and are one of our largest trading partners. So, while we may have many, and serious, disagreements with the Chinese government, our interests are too intertwined and our economies to interdependent for our relationship to turn to open hostility. The only way I could see a real military conflict with China and the US developing would be if China decided to invade Taiwan, something I consider rather unlikely.
Russia, on the other hand, is not nearly as dependent upon the US for economic growth; it's economy has been fueled by its huge reserves of natural resources, particularly oil and natural gas. The country has shown a strong willingness to use its control of natural resources as a weapon against European countries who do not do as Russia pleases; Russia has shut off gas and oil pipelines to countries such as Ukraine and even Belarus when it doesn't get its way. The country still has the world's largest stockpile of nuclear warheads and some of the largest supplies of biological and chemical weapons. The country's recent invasion of Georgia indicates a willingness to use military force in order to achieve foreign policy goals and has shown a relative lack of concern for international outcries to its actions. Combine this with the strong nationalism and, arguably, xenophobia characterizing its government elites as well as Putin's solid grasp on power and... well, the country's recent 'belligerence' isn't an action; it's a means for Russia to demonstrate it's independence from the US and other western countries and a means to indicate its willingness to use military and economic force to achieve its foreign policy goals. Additionally, the fact that Russia's economy is based on natural resources means that it doesn't rely on the international economy for economic growth in the same way that China does; Russia has resources that can't just be produced everywhere and which are desperately needed by developed countries meaning it has far more economic leverage against Europe and the US than Europe or the US has on Russia.
China needs the U.S. to consume. Russia needs China to consume. China can't consume Russian resources without the U.S. feeding money into China. We are at a stalemate. I don't like the Russians and I don't trust the Russians but they are not a threat at this time.
As another member pointed out, "what is meant by threat", and to that I suppose on one hand we could say a threat to our security, on the other a threat to US global hegemony and an end to our role as the sole world superpower.
To the former, I suppose I might look at Russia for their rather bellicose modus operandi, for the latter, China hands down.
I was sitting here looking at one of my screens (stumbling) and the coinikidinki of China's space program popped by. I googled it and it seems China is actually progressing their space program in a quite steady fashion and is now one of only three nations to place a human in orbit. While they are late in the game and this is no real indicator, it does show the level of technical prowess that is emerging from its economic might.
I haven't really looked at their weaponry systems or compared them with Russia or other western powers, I suspect they probably lag behind and their navy is rather meager. However, I suppose one could wage economic wars with dollars and be ever bit as effective fighting a global war without ever firing a shot on their own soil. Keeps defense budgets humble and more flexible.
I think that upon careful analysis it is rather obvious that Russia is a far greater threat to the US than China............
Excellent post. Well reasoned and well written.
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