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Words on the street was Putin ordered him to go to Moscow for drug rehab about a week ago. Did Putin poison him? Who knows.
If he is indeed in a coma, that would make him the second of my favorite Russia's propagandists to go Bye Bye. Prigozhin was the first. After Prigozhin's assassination, I have come to rely on Solovyov for my daily dose of Russian propaganda. He has been extremely sad after the Sevastopol strike. In this video he tried hard to even speak at all. But he knew he might fall out a window if he didn't finish the script.
Interesting from the Russian general and MP Gurulev who took it to Telegram to say that Ukrainians have changed tactics, that they effectively combat minefields, that their drones are endless, and that the Russian counter-battery fire is still ineffective.
If you want my honest opinion about what would happen if an actual WWIII happened without nukes?
I think there wouldn't be a major ship left in either the Pacific or the Atlantic other than submarines after a week. All commercial air travel between continents would be completely stopped. All energy flows to Europe would be halted, including the destruction of the gas pipelines from Norway. Russia and China would be operating a defacto blockade of Europe and Asia. Every satellite would be knocked out.
With Americans unable to resupply South Korea, the North Koreans would invade South Korea with Chinese/Russian support. The Japanese would be in veritable starvation mode. And with American supplies cut off, Russia/China would slowly overwhelm Europe with their vast resources and manpower.
Lastly, without international trade and America controlling the world's reserve currency, the living standards in the United States would drop precipitously. Leading to both an economic and political crisis in the United States.
This is why the first and second-island chains are so important to the United States. We need them to prevent Chinese submarines from operating freely in the open ocean. If America's Navy/merchant fleet cannot operate, America is irrelevant. China/Russia will run roughshod over all of Eurasia.
Huge issues with your suppositions.
The Russian and Chinese militaries are no match for the west. Let’s start with the same comparison I did with the Koreas.
NATO and other allies:
Population – Over one billion people
GDP – Over $50 trillion
GDP per Capita - ~$50k
Military Spending – Over $1.2 trillion
China/Russia/North Korea
Population – Over 1.5 billion people
GDP – Over $30 trillion
GDP per Capita - ~$20k
Military Spending – Under $300 billion
Lets look at another comparitive number
Stealth aircraft:
US/NATO/Allies – over 800
China/Russia – 160
Russia’s military is a joke, it has been outed as a paper tiger that can’t defeat impoverished Ukraine right next door. Their modern weapon systems have turned out to be vaporware and their main equipment is old and in disrepair. Most importantly Russia doesn’t have effective logistics to supply an army a hundred miles from its own borders, how could they possibly supply an army a thousand miles away in western Europe. With a conventional war Russia would lose air superiority to the west in days, you don’t believe me? See my notes on stealth aircraft. And 80% of the stealth aircraft I have noted for China/Russia? China. With the loss of the skies It’s Russia’s navy that wouldn’t last a week. Russia’s navy is taking a beating from Ukraine, a country that DOES NOT HAVE A NAVY.
China? China is building a military as a strong and effective regional power. They do not have force projection capabilities. Almost all the military spending I noted above is by China. China would be a very formidable foe near China. But they do not have a blue water navy. They have no world wide network of bases. They have no way at all to logistically support military actions like blockades on the other side of the world. The US and NATO do. And the US and NATO have world power allies right next to China, countries like Japan and South Korea. And the US already has bases there. If anyone would get blockaded, it would be China. That’s what they are afraid of and that is what China’s large new navy is built to fight against. Not as a force projecting blue water navy. China would be a very ugly war in China’s region, but they have no capability to fight a war on the other side of the world.
Mostly though, China has no reason to want to fight the west and a lot to lose and a ton of risk in a war with the west. First off, China can’t feed itself. No energy supplies to speak of either. Maybe during a war China could get enough oil and gas from Russia, but they have to have food shipments from Europe and the Americas. Most importantly, China’s vast economy is built around building stuff for the west. A war with the west would collapse China’s economy and likely send the country into starvation. An autocratic government can’t take stressors like that very long. China’s autocratic government’s main goal is to stay in power and a pointless war with the west greatly increases the chances the people rise up against the government. China only has to look at Russia and Ukraine to know they want no part of anything like that. And Russia cut off from the west can feed themselves and keep the lights on, China can’t.
Hell, if China wanted to fight a war to stabilize China, it would be with Russia to take their natural resources and farmland.
The Russian and Chinese militaries are no match for the west.
1) If the United States can't get across the Atlantic/Pacific, military strength is irrelevant.
2) Europe has no natural resources. Without continued American support and energy imports, Europe would turn into a third-world country(why do you think they're pushing alternatives so hard?).
3) The combined natural resources and manpower of China and Russia dwarfs that of Europe. Europe would pretty much head into WWIII with what they have, and with no ability to replenish their stocks. Throw on top of that terrible internal demographics, and where the military-age demographics are sometimes majority non-European. Who at best wouldn't fight for Europe in WWIII, and would most likely fight against Europe, acting as saboteurs, fifth-columns, etc.
The only thing that protects Europe is the American security umbrella. If you neutralize America, Russia and China could run roughshod over the entire Eurasian continent. It might take a while, but it is inevitable.
The only question is, can Russia and China neutralize America?
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Originally Posted by swake
Russia’s navy wouldn’t last a week.
No navies would exist in WWIII except submarines. Aircraft carriers are just big expensive targets for hypersonic missiles.
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Originally Posted by swake
The US and NATO have world power allies right next to China, countries like Japan and South Korea. And the US already has bases there. If anyone would get blockaded, it would be China.
Everyone would get blockaded, but Russia/China getting blockaded in Eurasia is completely different than America getting blockaded in the Western Hemisphere. Why do you think China wants the Belt-and-Road so badly? Belt and road is just a massive rail network that basically connects all of Eurasia and thus bypasses the world's shipping lanes(IE can't be blockaded, and with redundant networks).
Quote:
Originally Posted by swake
Mostly though, China has no reason to want to fight the west and a lot to lose and a ton of risk in a war with the west.
Yes, time is on China's side. The real question is, is it already too late?
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Originally Posted by swake
China can’t feed itself.
This is somewhat overstated. China does import a lot of food, but China could be nearly self-sufficient(and has recently pushed for greater agricultural productivity, including encouraging citizens to keep small gardens, converting more land to farming, etc). For that matter, the Russian surplus alone would meet China's caloric needs. The main problem for China is a lack of protein. They wouldn't starve, but they would have to change their consumption patterns, and there would be greater malnourishment. At least until Ukraine is fully under control.
Quote:
Originally Posted by swake
No energy supplies to speak of either.
China would have more than enough energy from Russia. The main concern for China is its dependency on iron ore from Australia and Brazil. Most of that iron ore is used in Chinese manufacturing to produce goods for export, so losing that inflow isn't quite as bad as it would seem, but certainly China's economy would take a massive dump. Although in a WWIII scenario, economies take a back seat to winning the war, and China already has the industrial capacity to quickly convert to weapons production, much like America in WWII.
I think America would have to take out Chinese manufacturing, and especially to target China's massive dams/hydroelectric.
Another question is, what would happen to Latin-America in the event of WWIII? Would America reassert its Monroe Doctrine and turn the entire Western Hemisphere into a resource mine for American industry? Or would Latin-America seize the opportunity to fracture the United States through its demographic division, or at least hold America back in the jungles of Central America through guerrilla forces?
Quote:
Originally Posted by swake
Hell, if China wanted to fight a war to stabilize China, it would be with Russia to take their natural resources and farmland.
That is correct. A Russia/China alliance would be extremely powerful. Which is why America pushed the Sino-Soviet split. Keeping China/Russia apart was pretty much the #1 priority for Henry Kissinger. Even Richard Nixon said that a Russia/China alliance during the Cold War would have guaranteed a victory for communism. But yes, China and Russia are not natural allies. Without America threatening both of them at the same time, they would be each other's greatest enemy. And certainly, if they could defeat "America" in WWIII, they would instantly turn on each other, much like America and Russia turned on each other after WWII.
Which is probably where India and Iran come into the picture.
Last edited by Redshadowz; 09-15-2023 at 04:06 PM..
I wouldnt go that far. While NK army may not have the latest and greatest weapons, there army under trained and under fed, they do have somethings going for them. For one thing is numbers, another is alot of artilary that can immediately hit the capital city of SK, Seoul. Not to mention, as Redshadowz mentioned, the people of NK are essentially brainwashed. The defectors who have come from NK have attested to that.
With that said, while I do firmly believe that SK and its allies would win in the end, there would be many deaths on both sides, especially if NK is the one who starts it.
The North Korean military is far more inept then the Russian military is. Weapons technology which North Korea doesn't have would annihilate North Korea in a military operation. And no all their missiles that lack any type of guidance system, would not help them either.
Yeah. North Korea would be crushed in a couple months (assuming they didn't use nukes in which case they would become glass). Now Seoul would be devastated as its pretty close to the border, so it would be bad for the South, but they would win.
It would be bad, but even a world war between Russia, North Korea, Belarus, Iran and whatever other banana republics wanted to join them, against NATO, Japan and South Korea would be the shortest world war in history. And no China would never come to their aid. China would never get involved with a bunch of losers like that. They have far too much to lose. They would sit on the sidelines eating their popcorn, just like they are doing now.
Ukrainian forces liberated Andriivka in the Bakhmut area on September 14 and continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 15. The Ukrainian General Staff and other Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces liberated Andriivka on September 14 and achieved unspecified partial success near Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) on September 15. The Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade reported that its personnel liberated Andriivka and “completely destroyed“ the Russian 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd Army Corps) after encircling the settlement. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and are inflicting significant losses on Russian manpower and equipment near Verbove (18km southeast of Orikhiv).
It would be bad, but even a world war between Russia, North Korea, Belarus, Iran and whatever other banana republics wanted to join them, against NATO, Japan and South Korea would be the shortest world war in history. And no China would never come to their aid. China would never get involved with a bunch of losers like that. They have far too much to lose. They would sit on the sidelines eating their popcorn, just like they are doing now.
But China isn't sitting on the sidelines, rofl. There would be no war without China. Saying that China is "sitting on the sidelines" is like saying America was sitting on the sidelines in WWII until Pearl Harbor. Or that America was sitting on the sidelines in WWI until 1917(or that America is sitting on the sidelines in the Ukraine War).
Just because America didn't declare war on Germany until 1917 doesn't mean we weren't the key player in that war. Germany would have won WWI long before 1917 had it not been for the United States. Why do you think Germany sent the Zimmerman telegram?
Russia is getting everything it needs from China. China will stay out of this war just like America did WWI/WWII until it has no other choice. Which is why the United States is constantly trying to provoke China in the Pacific. China is currently the biggest beneficiary of this war. China hopes this war lasts forever. It will just keep selling Russia computer chips and everything else it needs, while its manufacturing base continues to grow, and while its biggest industrial rival(Germany) continues to be crushed by the energy crisis in Europe. This war is bankrupting and deindustrializing Europe. Another year of this war and there won't be an EU.
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