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The advance may be to recapture the Donbass or to head towards Crimea and cut the Russian forces in two at Melitopol and put Crimean targets closer to Ukrainian offensive weaponry. Perhaps both. And maybe even storm into Crimea and take it back.
We will see how successful that will be. The world will watch with bated breath as this unfolds.
P.S. - More info. Zelensky issued a final warning: "The Russians still have time to leave, otherwise we will destroy."
Also: Zelensky is going to meet with the Polish government, increasing the speculation that Poland will enter the war on Ukraine's side. The suspense increases.
Still another update: Strong Ukrainian forces appear to be gathering near Bakhmut. These forces may be used to rescue the Ukrainian Bakhmut garrison. The Russian flag has been raised over Bakhmut city hall and about 85 percent of the city is in Russian hands. The plan is for Ukrainian forces to surround the Wagner group that has surrounded Bakhmut and force the Wagnerians to surrender and relieve the garrison.
A lot of things could be happening soon.
Last edited by BusinessManIT; 04-04-2023 at 02:38 PM..
I don’t fully understand how oil trade works. Why is Russian oil needed, can countries not buy from the Saudis or UAE like everybody else? Unless there’s some sort of trade agreement, why is there a need for such a small amount of Russian oil?
That is actually a very good question.
In the case of Japan they need to keep the energy door open, both for oil and natural gas. I can see where making a token purchase - and that's what 750,000 barrels in two months is - will keep the door open.
Also Russia still holds Sakhlin Island, which used used to be Japanese before the USSR just kicked all the civilians off and took the oil and gas for themselves. Russia may not be capable of producing Sakhlin oil (it's pretty complicated) and questions are beginning to arise among India, China and Russia about just what the fate of Sakhlin may be. Japan is made of very smart people. They may not want archenemies while they support the US.
Planning and preparation? Kinda strange, since the invasion promptly fell flat on its face.
My years in corporate America taught me just because you are meeting, writing papers and talking doesn't mean you are actually making worthwhile plans. People do not know the difference between goals, wishes and plans, so they get them all muddled up.
This war and its execution is a perfect example. It should be taught in leadership courses as a poor example.
They were somewhat effective in the south. They managed to bribe enough Ukrainian military and civilian officials to allow their initial success in the invasion from Crimea. That should have been a relatively easy border to defend. Simply blow a few bridges and extensively mine the couple of corridors. But then they ran out of steam beyond Kherson and were quickly driven back. They also ran out of steam in Zaphorizia.
China has longstanding grievances against Russia for seizing territory China would claim as it's own. The port of Vladivostok and the region around it was once part of Manchuria, and had they been able to develop it, China would have had a claim on much of the interior of the Russian east, probably including gas and oil resources.
While both Russia and China have low birth rates, ethnic Russians in the Far East have probably double the birth rate of northern Chinese. While there are millions of Chinese people, every year the ratio in the north is tilting in favor of the Russians. Northern Chinese provinces are depopulating quickly, since they have some of the lowest birth rates in the world coupled with huge internal outmigration to the south. The Chinese region bordering Russia lost 6.5 million people just in the last decade (17% of the population), and those are pre-COVID figures...
Also: Zelensky is going to meet with the Polish government, increasing the speculation that Poland will enter the war on Ukraine's side. The suspense increases.
...
I don't know who could possibly be doing this speculating.
While both Russia and China have low birth rates, ethnic Russians in the Far East have probably double the birth rate of northern Chinese. While there are millions of Chinese people, every year the ratio in the north is tilting in favor of the Russians. Northern Chinese provinces are depopulating quickly, since they have some of the lowest birth rates in the world coupled with huge internal outmigration to the south. The Chinese region bordering Russia lost 6.5 million people just in the last decade (17% of the population), and those are pre-COVID figures...
The whole subject of depopulation is going to generate all kinds of political activity. The information you give is new to me although I have read many comments saying it was "now or never" for Russia as its population shrinks and there are enormous borders to defend.
China's highly valuable work force is going to be hit hard during the next 30 years. It won't be possible for China to keep the pace as a manufacturing/assemble hub. Russia, on the other hand, has the advantage of being an energy/raw materials exporter. That takes fewer people.
And as fortune would have it, Eastern Russia has the exactly natural resources that China needs. I have said the last thing China wants is a successful, more powerful Russia. What they want is Russian oil, gas and even water.
I don't know who could possibly be doing this speculating.
Someone in Olgino perhaps.
Well, people who have heard that Zelensky is going to Poland to meet with Polish officials. Certainly a possibility. It would be good news for Ukraine if that happens. I'm not sure what you mean by your statement.
So Japanese oil companies are pumping oil in Russia? Venezuela had foreign oil companies pull out after Chavez, could Japan follow this example if necessary? Not that it will be beneficial financially but you’d think they’d be more respectful of international sanctions against Russia considering Russia’s ally China wants to start another Ukraine style situation in Taiwan, right in Japan’s backyard.
Also: Zelensky is going to meet with the Polish government, increasing the speculation that Poland will enter the war on Ukraine's side. The suspense increases.
I don't know who could possibly be doing this speculating.
Someone in Olgino perhaps.
Olgino? What it has to do with anything?
You are aware of all the laws, adopted lately the Ukrainian government, greatly increasing Polish presence in the country and giving them major rights, equivalent to those of the Ukrainians?
You do know that, Polaks consider Western Ukraine Wshodnie Kresy, Eastern Boarderland?
That, for centuries, everything on the right side of Dnipro river was Polish colony, with the population treated like slaves? Resulting in multiple and very bloody uprisings, such as, for example, Gaidamachchyna and Koliivshchyna? So bloody and devastating on Poland that they fear even a whisper of those names.
Then, if you know all this, why are you surprised that Poland wants it back? And, Hungary wants Transcarpathis back. And, Romania wants Moldova back.
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