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With the recent surge it wouldn't surprise me if there was a bit of a drop in Jan and improvement from there in Feb, but where exactly are these figures coming from? The actual jobs report is not released by the BLS until Friday morning.
while it's Breitbart, it clearly is discussing ADP's estimate. You can use almost any major media source, and they'll have an article. CNBC for ex:
"Obviously" this relates to Psaki's assertion that the report would be "wonky" because people were out with an Omicron "infection". We'd have to see ADP's methodology
Much of the data processing used in preparing the NER mimics the methodology used by the BLS to calculate payroll employment for the CES report. One difference is that the ADP NER includes any active employee within the company, whereas the BLS tracks employees only if they are paid during the applicable month
their records search relies on the 12th of the month ...
Quote:
Most of payroll records are not processed on the 12th of each month - companies often pay workers before or after that date. If there is no recorded employment for a given pay period that includes the 12th, but a record exists for either a later or earlier pay period during the month, we estimate employment for the reference period
Here's another entity I follow (largely for the amusement value) who, like ADP, tries to predict the BLS's numbers before the BLS numbers come out. Their track record is so-so. Their methodology is to track the numbers of job postings on tens of thousands of corporate and government web sites (not, like Indeed.com or any another website that re-posts jobs advertised elsewhere).
"Obviously" this relates to Psaki's assertion that the report would be "wonky" because people were out with an Omicron "infection". We'd have to see ADP's methodology
Just pulled in the ADP report. I did notice looking at past trends and comparing it to the BLS report is it does seem to move more both high and low than the BLS report. For example in December the BLS report showed 199k growth, but the ADP report showed almost quadruple that at 776k. The differences could be related to seasonal adjustments.
ADP Report: Private Sector Shed 301,000 Jobs in January Under Biden Administration
Quote:
Private payrolls fell by 301,000 for the month, well below the Dow Jones estimate for growth of 200,000 and a marked plunge from the downwardly revised 776,000 gain in December. It was the first time ADP reported negative job growth since December 2020.
That’s a shift of over one million jobs net within a single month. Of course, ADP turned out to be wildly off to the upside in December in relation to the official Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report, which only showed 199,000 jobs gained net in the month. Joe Biden and his administration have to hope that ADP misses as much to the downside on Friday, when the next BLS report will drop.
Feb was originally 379,000, is now 536,000
Mar was originally 916,000, is now 785,000
Apr was originally 266,000, is now 269,000
May was originally 559,000, is now 614,000
Jun was originally 850,000, is now 962,000
Jul was originally 943,000, is now 1,091,000
Aug was originally 235,000, is now 483,000
Sep was originally 194,000, is now 379,000
Oct was originally 531,000, is now 648,000
Nov was originally 210,000, is now 249,000 with 1 more revision to go
I think it's the employees realizing their job hopping is leaving them with less options. Pretty soon, it's pick a seat or pick a bridge to live under. I seriously am fascinated to see what careers continue on the upswing.
Will it be tech? Construction, medical, trades?
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ADP Report: Private Sector Shed 301,000 Jobs in January Under Biden Administration
