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Is $120 oil even real? Not if you ask the Saudis, or even Lehman Bros.
The investment bank’s oil expert said this week that the oil boom is due to bust. Economic growth across the globe will slow just as new refineries kick in, raising supply
Lehman Bros. Report: Oil Bust in the Cards (broken link)
Is $120 oil even real? Not if you ask the Saudis, or even Lehman Bros.
The investment bank’s oil expert said this week that the oil boom is due to bust. Economic growth across the globe will slow just as new refineries kick in, raising supply
Lehman Bros. Report: Oil Bust in the Cards (broken link)
Suspicious. Brought to you from the same guys who can't get anyone to buy their crap mortgage securities. These guys are probably getting burned trying to short oil when it went to 100 and want a short term rally so they can cover their position. I'll pass.
Helicopter Ben has been saying that commodities have been in a bubble for 5 years now.
Whenever I hear a talking head open their pie hole, I feel vindicated knowing I'm doing the exact opposite. Works pretty well.
Is $120 oil even real? Not if you ask the Saudis, or even Lehman Bros.
The investment bank’s oil expert said this week that the oil boom is due to bust. Economic growth across the globe will slow just as new refineries kick in, raising supply
As any fool knows, refineries do not produce oil, they produce oil-based products, like gasoline, kerosene, diesel, propane, naphtha, bitumens, asphalt, petroleum based jellies and lubricants, industrial oils, and feed stocks for pharmaceutical drugs, over-the-counter drugs, shampoos, soaps, body lotions, detergents, laundry detergents, inks and dyes, cosmetics, plastics, fabrics and electronic products, depending on whether the grade of oil is light, intermediate or heavy.
You also seem to want to take great delight ignoring the fact that if $1 were equal to 1 Euro, oil would be $76/barrel, not $120/barrel.
Those who had the wherewithal to read some of the congressional testimony from back in 2005 are keenly aware that it was known then that 5 countries who are net exporters of oil would become net importers of oil by 2010, and significantly increase world demand. It's was also known then that countries like Iran, who is currently a net exporter, would become a net importer by 2015, and several other countries will become net importers by 2012.
You can expect oil prices to rise further, not because of supply and demand issues, but because China will begin purchasing oil from Iran in Yuan, instead of US Dollars, reducing demand for US$ on the world market and causing it's value against the Euro to drop to about $0.58 = 1 Euro, which would make the price of oil about $132/barrel.
Is $120 oil even real? Not if you ask the Saudis, or even Lehman Bros.
The investment bank’s oil expert said this week that the oil boom is due to bust. Economic growth across the globe will slow just as new refineries kick in, raising supply
Lehman Bros. Report: Oil Bust in the Cards (broken link)
While I don't know that I would agree with the specifics (especially regarding the specific future price of oil) of the article, I DO think that while foreign consumption and the fall of the US dollar are behind most of the price increase of oil, speculation has also played a large part. While the price was certain to go up (and actually needed to), some of what we are seeing is artificial and driven by speculators. THAT factor behind the cost WILL collapse at some point.
Oil will bust, but it will be a few years. Last time we have a pretty good president who put us on a solid path to reduce imports, but Americans don't like to be told to conserve. Unfortunately for the last 25 years we've been living like $20 /bbl of oil was our birth right. When Americans dump their gas hog SUV and start paying attention to basics we will drive down import and once again the price of oil will drop.
This of course has nothing to do with refineries. There are plenty.
While I don't know that I would agree with the specifics (especially regarding the specific future price of oil) of the article, I DO think that while foreign consumption and the fall of the US dollar are behind most of the price increase of oil, speculation has also played a large part. While the price was certain to go up (and actually needed to), some of what we are seeing is artificial and driven by speculators. THAT factor behind the cost WILL collapse at some point.
Ken
Yep, and I agree with both you and GreatDay that oil is artificially high at this moment, and Lehman's projection seems about right to me.
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