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I'm not going to make this a poll, just looking for opinions. I don't want to put words in people's mouths. If Trump wins and therefore Biden loses this election what will be the biggest contributing factor to that, in your opinion?
He’s a terrible candidate and he has dementia. He’s a career politician who makes decisions based on politics, not on what is right. You can’t survive for decades by voting your conscience.
He’s all talk. He’s gonna do this and he’s gonna do that. Why didn’t he do any of that for 47 years?
I wouldn't blame it on Biden per se. I think it's the entire Democratic Platform that is the major buzz kill for voters. It's too much of a departure from the Obama years. People don't like change that much and the radical underpinnings of the left make many uncomfortable.
The Democrats have largely abandoned their traditional clientele, and centered their present coalition around a collection of rioters, looters, and outright thugs -- many of whom have no business near a voting booth in the first place.
This should suprise no one. Beginning in the late Sixties, an organization known as the New Democratic Coalition began recruiting disaffected "soft" Leftists on many campuses, the poisoned tree has borne rotten fruit ever since.
Last edited by 2nd trick op; 11-02-2020 at 10:05 AM..
As many mentioned, he's not a good candidate who's health is declining rapidly. How comfortable is anyone having a president that is deteriorating so quickly? Also, his policies are just not a winning formula for the common person and the China/family baggage is a big concern.
The Democrats have largely abandoned their traditional clientele, and centered their present coalition around a collection of rioters, looters, and outright thugs -- many of whom have no business near a voting booth in the first place.
Bingo! I live in Seattle. You'd be surprised how many people still have their Obama bumper stickers on their cars and every time they go to wash their cars and they are cleaning their rear bumpers, a little tear trickles down their faces....
Forget Trump, forget Biden and look at three historical patterns that favor incumbents:
1) Challenger is not now nor has ever been a chief executive of any organization, public or private. The office of POTUS is chief executive of the largest, richest and most powerful organization on Earth. You have Choice Red, the incumbent, who has a bona fide, legit track record as a chief executive, both public and private. And you have Choice Blue, a lifetime legislator/meeting attendee who has never been the chief executive of anything in any sector, ever. Since 1888, America is rock solid on choosing chief executives over meeting attendees to be the next chief executive.
2) Incumbent has rock solid party support. When incumbents have lost in the last 132 years, in addition to their challenger being a governor (former/current chief exec, just of smaller org), the incumbent did not have properly strong support from the party as evidenced by strong primary challenge and/or base shifting towards a vigorous 3rd party interloper. Not only is there no conservatarian quasi right 3rd party presence of any consequence in this election, but the incumbent has the strongest party/base support since our primary system has been in its current form. Not only did Trump get more total primary votes than Emperor Barack I did in 2012, he got more primary votes, running unopposed mind you, than the entire Democrat field of 2020...COMBINED, including Sen Get Off My Lawn, who does have pretty serious support.
3) Incumbent has more economic good news than bad news. Objectively, the economy during the Trump administration is as strong and resilient as any four year period in American history, even with the scamdemic and the politically motivated wreckage the Democrats tried to inflict. Lowest Black and Hispanic unemployment EVER. A period of more than a year where we actually had more unfilled jobs than we had people looking for work. A 33% single quarter rebound in GDP...during an election year where half the political class and most of the media was driving a doom and gloom narrative to wreck the economy? When incumbents have lost, the economic bad news far outweighed the good, and no matter how they spin Mar-Jun 2020, the good news since Jan 2017 far outweighs the bad, so says the 56% of Americans who told Gallup they are better off today than they were four years ago.
Look at the elections where Hoover, Carter and GHWB lost. Then look at all the incumbents who won. Trump shares not one factor common to the former group, and shares much with the latter.
So when Biden loses, the reason is simple - electoral history and how he specifically was never going to overcome it. They needed a governor, they needed way less support for Trump from the Republican party and base, and they needed more economic bad news than good for the last 4 years.
This is me being fair to Biden. I have gone on record (search for it, by all means) that I think the DNC trotting this guy out in his clearly obvious, and unfortunate, condition to face the rigors of the most grueling process in global politics was nothing short of abject cruelty. I feel bad for Joe Biden. Not totally, since you cannot rape the willing, but he got bullied into his position more than he chose it.
Had the Dems tapped a governor like 2 years ago to start building a more compelling case of something to vote FOR instead of AGAINST, they'd be doing better and Biden could be chasing pretty butterflies in his backyard. But they tapped someone who would be sure to have every possible historical pattern going against him, and none for him.
tl,dr - it really isn't anything Biden so much as the forces of electoral history. He isn't really a candidate. He's the face on the posters the media and DNC are using as the backdrop to their incessant shrieking. He's an anti-Trump placeholder.
Great analysis. The wildcard here of course though is Trump himself. There is so much hatred for him that being an anti-Trump placeholder might just be enough. We'll find out soon though.
He has dementia.
He is completely corrupt.
He has a socialist who is likely to take over as President immediately as his running mate.
His policies are bad.
I'm not going to make this a poll, just looking for opinions. I don't want to put words in people's mouths. If Trump wins and therefore Biden loses this election what will be the biggest contributing factor to that, in your opinion?
If Biden loses ... it will be because he picked Harris.
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