Do you think we're seeing a housing bubble? (Pittsburgh, McKeesport: sale, house)

[PghYinzer]

Originally Posted by Goinback2011

From PPG in March:

"Allegheny County suffered a net migration loss of 7,835 residents to other parts of the country last year, and the metro loss was 8,633."

Why Pittsburgh's population is still declining | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Whoops, I thought we were talking about the city, not the county. It's incredibly hard to determine where at that level people are leaving.

[PreservationPioneer]

Originally Posted by pittsburghaccuweather

What has happened to the real estate on the south side flats? Why is it never talked about anymore? When I was looking 13 years ago for a city home, real estate was red hot here. Do people not like the south side anymore? I think it has all of that a more than a Lawrenceville.

Shhhhh... Don't let the secret out. I've been waiting for the prices to come down on those pre-Civil War row houses in the South Side. It's still the BEST neighborhood in the city. Great business district (the best in the city), historic, and walkable to downtown and Oakland!

[PreservationPioneer]

Originally Posted by gladhands

I’m not poor, and location matters. I’m not looking for a cheap house. I’m lookin As someone who grew up in Manhattan, and moved here from Boston. A neighborhood where I can’t walk to 90% of the things I need holds no appeal for me.

Missing the point. It's not about whether you want a cheap house. It's about the fact that you can afford a house in the Pittsburgh area, but don't want what you can afford. There are many markets without any affordable housing stock.

[PreservationPioneer]

Originally Posted by szug-bot

People want, and should, have it "all" - that which makes them enjoy where they live. And this rarely is in Elliot, Sheraden, etc.

How many people said this about East Liberty, Lawrenceville, and Millvale a decade ago? Seems like peoples' perspectives changed on what is enjoyable about a neighborhood.

[trackstar13]

Originally Posted by PGH423

What really matters is whether the population of home buyers has grown. The problem with Goinback's argument is that total population is an inexact, and probably at times poor, proxy for home buyers.

I completely agree and the population can actually be declining in an area while the number of homebuyers is increasing. This is definitely true in an urban market where household sizes are actually getting smaller.

[pittsburghaccuweather]

Originally Posted by pittsburghaccuweather

No we aren’t.

The prices are inflated in the good areas because of two reasons.

1. Pittsburgh housing stock is very old. Finding something updated is few and far in between and costs more as a result.

2. There is a lack of new housing construction in the city and metro as a whole further inflating desirable areas and decent existing homes there.

What would relieve these prices is a lot of new construction in desirable areas or fixing up rundown housing in borderline neighborhoods to help rejuvenate them.

We probably won’t see new construction anytime soon. I actually think amazon would bring home prices down. They would have no choice but to bulldoze and build new homes. There just isn’t enough to support amazon now in livable condition. Lots of old rundown homes everywhere. They would have to start fresh and new.

I think my comment goes hand in had with Preservation Pioneers statements.

Originally Posted by JoeP

You can't look at population growth and expect to see housing trends like that.

For many areas in the metro, the decline is due to natural change - more deaths than births. You have a lot of old Pittsburghers dying and people are buying their homes.

See goingback2011 response below you may want to correctly edit your post

Originally Posted by _Buster

If you mean moving out by dying, true. But in terms of migration patterns of the living, Pgh has more people moving in than out.

See goinback2011 post response below you may want to correctly edit your post

Originally Posted by Goinback2011

From PPG in March:

"Allegheny County suffered a net migration loss of 7,835 residents to other parts of the country last year, and the metro loss was 8,633."

Why Pittsburgh's population is still declining | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Thank you for posting a response with facts to back it up. JoeP and Buster can learn lots from you.

Originally Posted by PreservationPioneer

Missing the point. It's not about whether you want a cheap house. It's about the fact that you can afford a house in the Pittsburgh area, but don't want what you can afford. There are many markets without any affordable housing stock.

Agreed. This thinking eliminates 80 plus city neighborhoods and 90 percent or more of the suburbs. Plenty of housing and a lot in need of repair in non hot neighborhoods that are a steal.

Originally Posted by PreservationPioneer

How many people said this about East Liberty, Lawrenceville, and Millvale a decade ago? Seems like peoples' perspectives changed on what is enjoyable about a neighborhood.

Agreed!

[PreservationPioneer]

I personally don't understand what people have against the Pittsburgh suburbs. I have always been an anti-suburb, pro-city person. I'm originally from the Detroit metro, a city strangled by soulless sprawl. However, Pittsburgh is surrounded by historic mill towns and industrial villages, many with functional business districts, and affordable housing that is more architecturally interesting and older than much of what is left in the city of Pittsburgh. Let's face it -- half of the core of Pittsburgh was lost to urban renewal, leaving a lot of the suburbs as more historic than the city itself. Pittsburgh burned in 1845. Sharpsburg has older houses. My point is that looking at Pittsburgh as good and the suburbs as soulless is somewhat reversed in some cases. I get really bored in most of the East End neighborhoods (Lawrenceville and Bloomfield are cool), which were built up as suburbs themselves. I mean, is there really that much difference between Bellevue and Highland Park? At least Bellevue has a real business district.

[_Buster]

Originally Posted by pittsburghaccuweather

See goinback2011 post response below you may want to correctly edit your post

See the original post - this is about the city, not the county or metro. You may want to correct your post. But you probably won't.

[Grlzrl]

I see softening in the market nationwide, particularly the higher end market. I think people are trying to attribute it to increases in interest rates but I think it's due to the tax policy changes....eliminating the mortgage interest deduction (or rather reducing it from a $1m to a $750k loan) and doubling the standard deduction which essentially....eliminated the mortgage interest deduction. Also, SALT and property taxes are only deductible up to $10k total. For higher earners in blues states, this is huge.

So yes, I think the bubble is letting off some steam. And while I realize real estate is largely local, I see some signs of it in California, which is arguably the most run up market in the country.

[pittsburghaccuweather]

Originally Posted by PreservationPioneer

I personally don't understand what people have against the Pittsburgh suburbs. I have always been an anti-suburb, pro-city person. I'm originally from the Detroit metro, a city strangled by soulless sprawl. However, Pittsburgh is surrounded by historic mill towns and industrial villages, many with functional business districts, and affordable housing that is more architecturally interesting and older than much of what is left in the city of Pittsburgh. Let's face it -- half of the core of Pittsburgh was lost to urban renewal, leaving a lot of the suburbs as more historic than the city itself. Pittsburgh burned in 1845. Sharpsburg has older houses. My point is that looking at Pittsburgh as good and the suburbs as soulless is somewhat reversed in some cases. I get really bored in most of the East End neighborhoods (Lawrenceville and Bloomfield are cool), which were built up as suburbs themselves. I mean, is there really that much difference between Bellevue and Highland Park? At least Bellevue has a real business district.

I agree. The new trend is the suburbs with their own downtowns and business districts. I am also a believer that it is bad to concentrate all of the jobs in the city limits especially in Pittsburgh’s case. The public transportation and road network needs a lot of work. It is good when businesses setup in the suburbs. Not everybody has good accessibility to the city. Imagine that if this new growth was more spread out. It could help areas like McKeesportport and drop prices significantly in these chic areas. We are one metro we need to thrive as one to move forward. I’m glad we have the airport area, cranberry and south pointe. More businesses in the burbs and surrounding towns is a good thing.

Originally Posted by _Buster

See the original post - this is about the city, not the county or metro. You may want to correct your post. But you probably won't.

Census bureau blames Pittsburgh city mostly for population losses. The county appears to be losing less than the city.

City pinpointed as most responsible for Allegheny County's population drop | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette