Do you think we're seeing a housing bubble? (Pittsburgh, McKeesport: best neighborhood, real estate)

[PghYinzer]

Originally Posted by Knepper3

Agree, it's not so much a bubble but lack of supply. The past year inventory of homes for sale has been extremely low so homes that have sold are driving up prices. Lack of inventory is a little curious, wondering if some people are holding to see if the Amazon hype moves things up more or something. Even so people here do not seem to move away and there is not a huge amount of speculation buying either so I dont expect a large number of homes to suddenly come on the market which would bring down prices. I think people are reluctant to sell for the very reason you bring up, they are not looking to move out of the area so where would they move given the high cost of another home. Personally we've been thinking for a few years of moving now that our kids are out of school but there isn't something bigger/more property with a modest increase in price so we are just sitting and looking at improving our existing. Only way for prices to drop significantly is to see a big increase in inventory.

This exactly. I have thought about cashing in on the equity in my house, as I could get more than double for what I paid for it 8 years ago, but where would I go? I would simply be sinking all of that and more into an equitable house on the same street and since I love my house it's not worth it. I am sitting on a boatload of equity but no way to tap into it.

[Knepper3]

Honestly I think you would have 2 options, make some improvements on your home instead of moving up which will improve your equity and give you want you want or go the complete other route and sell/get something that needs alot of work but has the overall size/lot you want to make it what you want. I'd do that but my wife already went through living in a construction zone when we bought 11 years ago so she isnt looking to do that again.

[Knepper3]

We even talked to a few appraisers the last 6 months and they have had to adjust their pricing, not enough comps anymore to justify higher home sales so they have to look at adjustments to the comps for inventory

[trackstar13]

The Pittsburgh market is still relatively "cheap" and has a long way to go before it becomes a "bubble." As much as I don't usually like the Post Gazette, this is a pretty good article with an overview of the current Pittsburgh real estate market compared to many of the other potential "Amazon" cities. It is amazing to me how expensive Raleigh and Atlanta have become.

Pittsburgh housing market a boon to attracting Amazon, real estate experts say | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

[jea6321]

Originally Posted by PghYinzer

This exactly. I have thought about cashing in on the equity in my house, as I could get more than double for what I paid for it 8 years ago, but where would I go? I would simply be sinking all of that and more into an equitable house on the same street and since I love my house it's not worth it. I am sitting on a boatload of equity but no way to tap into it.

depending what you plan to do with the equity, there are ways to tap into it that make sense. you can cash out refi, but the rate will most likely be higher if you bought in 2010. HELOC and use the funds to either buy an investment property or invest elsewhere that you are confident you can get a higher return that the 5%ish you pay on the money. I would ( and have) only done this to purchase further investment property. If you have substantial amounts of equity and can qualify for a decent heloc as a second, you can go buy properties as a cash purchase, renovate them, rent them out and then cash out refi the new one. You get most or all of your money back and can then go do it again. Look up ( BRRRR investing if you want to learn more). Its a popular way to harness idle cash and acquire multiple properties without having to save up lots of large down payments.

As for the original question. Nope, we are still much cheaper than most other cities that have any type of "cool" factor. it looks like a bubble to pittsburghers that have lived here their whole life or don't pay attention to other markets at all. We are probably due for a flat line or mild appreciation period after the past couple years, but housing isn't going to be crashing here. As everyone has discussed, if HQ2 does somehow end up coming here, things will change drastically. People will be bumping this thread in 5 years laughing about how these were the good ole days where you could buy into prime areas for under 300k.

[Knepper3]

I do agree on people focused too much on the local market too. Housing here is still cheap though maybe not as cheap as 12 years ago relative to other areas. That was a major reason we moved from Orlando area. We sold our 1450 sqft ranch, nothing special, back in 2007 for about $265k and immediately bought a 3 story in a sought after SD here for $200k. About 3 times the space and double the lot size. Yes taxes were more but I think we went from $2500 to $3500 in taxes which was well worth avoiding private school.


I check on our old home still in Oviedo, it went from our sold price of $265k down to about $150k and is only now back up to $230k. Still $230k there for a small ranch is more expensive than Pgh in similar areas.

[Copanut]

I'm still amazed at the new high end construction I see popping up here in the GWN. I drive by two under construction that front on Babcock Blvd. Both are easily a million to start. Makes no sense to me, that kind of money and all that traffic. I just wonder what type of increase in value they expect and will there be buyers that can afford it down the road.

[gladhands]

Originally Posted by trackstar13

The Pittsburgh market is still relatively "cheap" and has a long way to go before it becomes a "bubble." As much as I don't usually like the Post Gazette, this is a pretty good article with an overview of the current Pittsburgh real estate market compared to many of the other potential "Amazon" cities. It is amazing to me how expensive Raleigh and Atlanta have become.

Pittsburgh housing market a boon to attracting Amazon, real estate experts say | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Originally Posted by jea6321

As for the original question. Nope, we are still much cheaper than most other cities that have any type of "cool" factor. it looks like a bubble to pittsburghers that have lived here their whole life or don't pay attention to other markets at all. We are probably due for a flat line or mild appreciation period after the past couple years, but housing isn't going to be crashing here. As everyone has discussed, if HQ2 does somehow end up coming here, things will change drastically. People will be bumping this thread in 5 years laughing about how these were the good ole days where you could buy into prime areas for under 300k.

Originally Posted by Knepper3

I do agree on people focused too much on the local market too. Housing here is still cheap though maybe not as cheap as 12 years ago relative to other areas. That was a major reason we moved from Orlando area. We sold our 1450 sqft ranch, nothing special, back in 2007 for about $265k and immediately bought a 3 story in a sought after SD here for $200k. About 3 times the space and double the lot size. Yes taxes were more but I think we went from $2500 to $3500 in taxes which was well worth avoiding private school.


I check on our old home still in Oviedo, it went from our sold price of $265k down to about $150k and is only now back up to $230k. Still $230k there for a small ranch is more expensive than Pgh in similar areas.

Pittsburgh's relative affordability, compared to other cities doesn't mean it isn't experiencing a bubble. If we're seeing unsustainable appreciation, we're probably in a bubble. FWIW, I think we're experiencing a national housing bubble, but yes, I'm focusing on the local market, because that's where I would be buying.

[Goinback2011]

Given there's no population growth to support rapidly appreciating prices, you need to come up with a rational way to explain it. Otherwise, it's just investor speculation which, by definition, is a bubble.

[PghYinzer]

Originally Posted by Goinback2011

Given there's no population growth to support rapidly appreciating prices, you need to come up with a rational way to explain it. Otherwise, it's just investor speculation which, by definition, is a bubble.

There is not appreciation in all areas of Pgh though. The population churn is bringing in new people who have more money than the people who left (most leaving feet first) so they are able and willing to pay more for what houses do come on the market, but only in the right areas.