Mon Valley in 10 years? (Pittsburgh, Allentown: rent, condo, mortgage)

[PreservationPioneer]

Originally Posted by I_Like_Spam

Coming into town from McKeesport can be difficult, just making it to East Lib is a bit easier.

The commute from the tube city to town is either Route 30, or over the Mansfield Bridge and through Lincoln Place and Hazelwood.

Neither is that great.

Not great, but it's do-able and not awful. But certainly from places like Swissvale and Turtle Creek, it's not bad.

[SteelCityRising]

I'm going to have to reinforce PreservationPioneer here. At some point all of the walkable or semi-walkable safe urban neighborhoods of the city proper of Pittsburgh will become unaffordable for lower-middle-class first-time home-buyers. Right now places like Greenfield, Squirrel Hill, Shadyside, Regent Square, Highland Park, East Liberty, Bloomfield, Friendship, Lawrenceville, Polish Hill, Strip District, Downtown, South Side Flats, Central North Side, Allegheny West, North Shore, Brookline, and Manchester have all risen to the point where entry-level homes are generally $100,000+ whereas a decade ago you could still buy a livable home for under that price point in some of those areas.

For my sub-$100,000 budget for a starter home in a safe (semi)-walkable city neighborhood I'm now relegated to Beechview, the "backside" of Mt. Washington (not very walkable), Allentown, Troy Hill, East Deutschtown (east of I-279), Elliott, Observatory Hill, and MAYBE Brighton Heights, although housing prices seem to be on the rise there. I can easily see those neighborhoods all experiencing housing appreciation over the course of the next decade to the point where first-time home-buyers will be priced out of any and all city neighborhoods with walkability, which means they'll start more seriously considering suburban jurisdictions that have walkable elements.

McKeesport won't really take off, though, until any and all of the (semi)-walkable areas between it and the city (a large distance) are gentrified. I'd put money on Homestead and McKees Rocks seeing revitalization long before McKeesport.

[UKyank]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

I'm going to have to reinforce PreservationPioneer here. At some point all of the walkable or semi-walkable safe urban neighborhoods of the city proper of Pittsburgh will become unaffordable for lower-middle-class first-time home-buyers. Right now places like Greenfield, Squirrel Hill, Shadyside, Regent Square, Highland Park, East Liberty, Bloomfield, Friendship, Lawrenceville, Polish Hill, Strip District, Downtown, South Side Flats, Central North Side, Allegheny West, North Shore, Brookline, and Manchester have all risen to the point where entry-level homes are generally $100,000+ whereas a decade ago you could still buy a livable home for under that price point in some of those areas.

For my sub-$100,000 budget for a starter home in a safe (semi)-walkable city neighborhood I'm now relegated to Beechview, the "backside" of Mt. Washington (not very walkable), Allentown, Troy Hill, East Deutschtown (east of I-279), Elliott, Observatory Hill, and MAYBE Brighton Heights, although housing prices seem to be on the rise there. I can easily see those neighborhoods all experiencing housing appreciation over the course of the next decade to the point where first-time home-buyers will be priced out of any and all city neighborhoods with walkability, which means they'll start more seriously considering suburban jurisdictions that have walkable elements.

5166 Natrona Way, Pittsburgh, PA 15201 is For Sale | Zillow

1232 Wolfrum St, Pittsburgh, PA 15212 is For Sale | Zillow

529 E Carson St, Pittsburgh, PA 15203 is For Sale | Zillow

4930 Yew St, Pittsburgh, PA 15224 is For Sale | Zillow

Plus many others in the areas you mentioned just doing a very quick search

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by UKyank

5166 Natrona Way, Pittsburgh, PA 15201 is For Sale | Zillow

1232 Wolfrum St, Pittsburgh, PA 15212 is For Sale | Zillow

529 E Carson St, Pittsburgh, PA 15203 is For Sale | Zillow

4930 Yew St, Pittsburgh, PA 15224 is For Sale | Zillow

Plus many others in the areas you mentioned just doing a very quick search

These homes in these neighborhoods are the exception---not the rule---and in a few years bargains like this in these neighborhoods will not be available.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

McKeesport won't really take off, though, until any and all of the (semi)-walkable areas between it and the city (a large distance) are gentrified. I'd put money on Homestead and McKees Rocks seeing revitalization long before McKeesport.

FWIW, I do think that Swissvale will eventually take off, due to being the terminus of the East Busway. Right now the area around the Busway is the least desirable, but I expect it will invert over time. The housing stock there is affordable, largely in good shape, and has character. There's also a fairly large (albeit partially empty" downtown area which still has room for significant infill. Housing prices are rising, although no one would say it's gentrifying yet. The school district has issues of course, but the same is true for most of Regent Square.

In general though, I think it's unlikely that the gentrification zone will spread much past Wilkinsburg/Edgewood/Swissvale within the next 20 years, without further investment in mass transit infrastructure, such as extending the East Busway further.

[PreservationPioneer]

Originally Posted by UKyank

5166 Natrona Way, Pittsburgh, PA 15201 is For Sale | Zillow

1232 Wolfrum St, Pittsburgh, PA 15212 is For Sale | Zillow

529 E Carson St, Pittsburgh, PA 15203 is For Sale | Zillow

4930 Yew St, Pittsburgh, PA 15224 is For Sale | Zillow

Plus many others in the areas you mentioned just doing a very quick search

That house on Natrona is a good deal.

[UKyank]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

These homes in these neighborhoods are the exception---not the rule---and in a few years bargains like this in these neighborhoods will not be available.

Then buy one already

[robrobrob]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

I'm going to have to reinforce PreservationPioneer here. At some point all of the walkable or semi-walkable safe urban neighborhoods of the city proper of Pittsburgh will become unaffordable for lower-middle-class first-time home-buyers. Right now places like Greenfield, Squirrel Hill, Shadyside, Regent Square, Highland Park, East Liberty, Bloomfield, Friendship, Lawrenceville, Polish Hill, Strip District, Downtown, South Side Flats, Central North Side, Allegheny West, North Shore, Brookline, and Manchester have all risen to the point where entry-level homes are generally $100,000+ whereas a decade ago you could still buy a livable home for under that price point in some of those areas.

For my sub-$100,000 budget for a starter home in a safe (semi)-walkable city neighborhood I'm now relegated to Beechview, the "backside" of Mt. Washington (not very walkable), Allentown, Troy Hill, East Deutschtown (east of I-279), Elliott, Observatory Hill, and MAYBE Brighton Heights, although housing prices seem to be on the rise there. I can easily see those neighborhoods all experiencing housing appreciation over the course of the next decade to the point where first-time home-buyers will be priced out of any and all city neighborhoods with walkability, which means they'll start more seriously considering suburban jurisdictions that have walkable elements.

McKeesport won't really take off, though, until any and all of the (semi)-walkable areas between it and the city (a large distance) are gentrified. I'd put money on Homestead and McKees Rocks seeing revitalization long before McKeesport.

I think you are mistaken about housing prices a decade ago in the city.

My wife and I looked at houses (with a realtor) in most of the East End Neighborhoods 15 years ago and you couldn't get a house in Highland Park, Shadyside or Squirrel Hill for under 100,000. In Shadyside the best we could find was a two room condo for 70K with a room on each floor and a spiral staircase with a kitchen tucked underneath it. Squirrel Hill was just as bad. We looked at a rowhouse/townhouse on Wilkins for 180,000 with no parking. We also looked at a rowhouse/townhouse on Shady that was a total gut for 150,000. In Highland Park we looked at a house that had 30 steps and hadn't been touched since the 1930's for 150,000. We didn't look at the stuff on the East Liberty/Highland Park border because 15 years ago it was basically a ghetto. Forget about the city section of Regent Square. There was nothing there in our price range. A friend looked at a house there 20 years ago for 130,000 and it was fixer that backed up to the alley that ran behind Murphy's Tap Room. 11 years ago a friend bought a small house in Friendship for 170,000 and it is a block from Penn.

Lawrenceville was never as cheap as the Southside. I am not a Southside guy but we did look there too. Roughly 15 years ago friends each bought total fixers there for 80K. One lucked out when a neighbor died and the other friend happened to be riding by on his bike when a bankrupt homeowner put up a for sale by owner sign. Two or three years later the best we could find was an awful house with a stone front with a bowed wall on an alley for 100,000.

I will give you the Central North Side has some cheap homes back then. A friend bought a rental a couple of blocks off of East Ohio Street for about 50,000. Bloomfield was cheap too back then.

The thing is 10 years ago is a long time. Even 3 percent appreciation adds up.

[Geeo]

That house on Natrona Street is cool. I love the flowered carpeting that looks like it's from the late 1940s, and the kitchen is a well-preserved late 40s/early 50s. Even the table and chairs look like they're from the period. If I had this house, I think I would keep the kitchen as it is because it works.

[Goodjules]

Originally Posted by PreservationPioneer

That house on Natrona is a good deal.

It looks like a single family home, but the listing says it's a condo. Anyone know what's up with that?