National December employment report looks promising for Pittsburgh

[BrianTH]

I do wish the media consistently reported on the alternative unemployment rates, or at least U6 as well as U3, and there may be ways for the government to encourage the media to do that.

But making the transition in public discourse is obviously going to be tricky. That NYPost article, for example, is deliberately trying to confuse people about the origins of these different measures as well as the prevailing trends, and they are actually making use of the fact that U3 is the historic headline number to do that.

Again, though, I'm all for people paying attention to more than U3, including U6. My point is just that as with so much else going on these days, these shameless attempts at deception make such beneficial changes far more difficult than they should be.

Edit: By the way, I would note that I don't think U3 is defined in a way intended to deceive, even though I agree the way it is reported and understood by the public may end up creating inaccurate impressions. The U3 definition is actually an international definition, adopted by the ILO, and was designed to allow for more meaningful comparisons of labor market conditions in different places and in different times. Unfortunately, the way it is discussed most people assume it is defined as something like the number of people who would like to work but can't find a job, which is probably best captured by U5 (U6 adds in people with part time jobs that would prefer full time employment, and I actually think that is a little broader than how most people conceive of "the unemployment rate").

[Aqua Teen Carl]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

(U6 adds in people with part time jobs that would prefer full time employment, and I actually think that is a little broader than how most people conceive of "the unemployment rate").

It's also people that have full time jobs that turn into part time jobs periodically because their hours are cut. For example, I worked full time at Shop N Save when I was younger and one week you could go from 40 hours to 20 hours slashing your pay in half for the week. Many people fought for "hours" aka full time employment for full time pay. Since they had to put food on the table for their children, turning a full time job into a part time one randomly often made them underemployed through no fault of their own.

Either way, I think that is a definitely something that should be taken into consideration, know what I mean?

[BrianTH]

Absolutely agree--we need to be concerned about people who are involuntarily part time.

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by h_curtis

A friend of mine owns a business in Lawrenceville. He was robbed not once, but twice this weekend. That place is a dump and a crime ridden hole. I think he will have to close his doors because his insurance won't pay enough. What a hole. They broke his front window one day and the next day smashed in his front door. Guess that place is the same as it was 7 or so years ago. A dump.

Which business? I'll take the down to earth people of Lawrenceville, Bloomfield, etc over the soulless Stepford Wife snobs of Fox Chapel and Upper St. Clair any day.

[4thGenerationPGH]

The real numbers...

NFP Payrolls At 200K, Expected At 155K; Unemployment Rate Drops To 8.5%, Labor Force Participation At Lowest Since 1984 | ZeroHedge

Real Jobless Rate Is 11.4% With Realistic Labor Force Participation Rate | ZeroHedge

[gg]

Originally Posted by 4thGenerationPGH

The real numbers...

NFP Payrolls At 200K, Expected At 155K; Unemployment Rate Drops To 8.5%, Labor Force Participation At Lowest Since 1984 | ZeroHedge

Real Jobless Rate Is 11.4% With Realistic Labor Force Participation Rate | ZeroHedge

I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I do believe the labor force is shrinking. Just look at all the baby boomers nearing retirement. Of course the government isn't telling us the truth. Just looking at the fudged military budget with $50 dollar cokes and $100 snack packs hidden in there. We are never told the truth, so our leaders do as they please. They have us all living in fear and addicted to medias, so no one knows what is going on. Just look at how many people walk around texting each other. No one knows what is going on at all and the government loves it.

[BrianTH]

There are at least three factors contributing to the declining labor force participation rate. One is demographic shifts which are pretty much independent of current economic circumstances (and that is one of the reasons you can't use the recent historic average participation rate as your benchmark). The second is discouraged unemployed halting their job searches, which is obviously dependent on current economic circumstances and something we should be very concerned about. The third is younger people staying in school longer, which is likely only in part driven by current economic circumstances so may not retreat entirely with improving economic circumstances, and is not necessarily a bad thing in the long run.

Edit: A useful discussion on the demographics issue:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...ion-ratio.html

This graph shows a couple different pre-recession calculations of where the participation rate was heading anyway for demographic reasons. We're below that track, so it isn't all demographics, but they are contributing substantially:



And here are a couple posts on young people staying in school:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...-kids-are.html
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...-kids-are.html

More graphs:

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

The second is discouraged unemployed halting their job searches, which is obviously dependent on current economic circumstances and something we should be very concerned about.

^ This would describe my partner and I. He's been permatemping for a local staffing service since graduating from college in May 2009 with undergraduate degrees in Mathematics and Statistics. They abuse him, which is why I'm personally so guarded against "temping" here. I graduated in May 2009 with an undergraduate degree in Accounting and have been underemployed since moving here. Both of us are supporting ourselves, and while both of us wish we could be more "fully" employed we've become discouraged to the point where neither of us is applying any longer. I just can't take the "Thanks, but no thanks..." e-mails anymore, and my partner sees how discouraged I've been with my own job search and has also given up on his own search. The sad thing is that given Pittsbugh's low overall cost-of-living if even ONE of us was gainfully employed in our fields the other would be well taken care of.

[Kippy]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

^ This would describe my partner and I. He's been permatemping for a local staffing service since graduating from college in May 2009 with undergraduate degrees in Mathematics and Statistics. They abuse him, which is why I'm personally so guarded against "temping" here. I graduated in May 2009 with an undergraduate degree in Accounting and have been underemployed since moving here. Both of us are supporting ourselves, and while both of us wish we could be more "fully" employed we've become discouraged to the point where neither of us is applying any longer. I just can't take the "Thanks, but no thanks..." e-mails anymore, and my partner sees how discouraged I've been with my own job search and has also given up on his own search. The sad thing is that given Pittsbugh's low overall cost-of-living if even ONE of us was gainfully employed in our fields the other would be well taken care of.

So much for tenacity. If you truly want to land a "real" job and be able to buy a home, then you have to fight for it.

Have you considered taking the necessary steps to become a CPA? Have you considered that perhaps you need to change your job search/application/interview strategies? Have you tried contacting your school's carrer center or alumni services department for advice? Have you had someone who knows what they are doing review and edit your resume (remember, keep it short and sweet)? Have you taken any steps to try to network within your desired field?

In the Internet Age, applying for a job is free, it doesn't even cost any postage. There is no reason not to be carpet bombing corporations with your resume. There is no reason not to keep applying for open positions as they are posted on corporations' websites.

It is a numbers game, and if you keep applying, chances are you'll eventually find something. However, it is a sure bet that you won't find anything if you give up.

Edit to add: I think that you can do it! Don't give up on yourself!