Avg Phoenix home price will hit millions of dollars in few years (Scottsdale: gated, subsidized)

[Mike from back east]

Found some stats for March in one of the investment groups I attend.

March 2022, closed sales: 9527
March 2023, closed sales: 7417
Difference, fewer closings 2110
YoY decline: 22.1%

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

My wife would take in her 88-year-old mother. I won't for a dozen reasons: Some logistic and some selfish. Selfishly, I have one life to live and it's not going to volunteer to wipe butts, change diapers, get her dressed and undressed, bathing her, etc. Now if my wife gets into that state of health for whatever reason, I signed up for it and I will be there for her. But not my now-passed parents, brothers, MIL, neighbors, friends, etc. I never agreed to that. My contract is with my spouse. Period. Oh, I will help, but in different ways including friends and family. My wife has helped a lot measured in hundreds of hours. They talk for an hour a day and often by Facetime. Her mom is happy and gets pretty good care. But as she ages, there will be more challenges.

As I mentioned, not all situations are the same. I'm very thankful to have a close knit family, and we believe in taking care of our own first and foremost. I figured that since they provided a loving home, worked hard, and sacrificed a lot for us when we were kids, we should do the same for them as adults when they're unable to fully care for themselves ... including the not so pleasant jobs you mentioned (the "eeww" factor, as many kids would call it). Our parents couldn't be more appreciative of what all we have done for them, even though they never expected it from us. Parents & their adult children can be the best of friends & close companions in their remaining/declining years, which I consider to be a significant benefit. Understandably, that may not be as important to some people, but it is for me.

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

Ditto. Nothing wrong with owning stocks that pay a nice dividend. One of my oil pipelines pays a dividend of 12% per year -- based on the price I paid at purchase. No calls at 9PM that the water heater broke, no need to paint an apartment upon vacancy, no deadbeats to evict, no damage to repair .... just sit back and cash dividend checks each quarter. As it is now we collect about $3k/month in dividends from our basket of stocks, and I can buy/sell within two minutes, on-line, on my keyboard, no transaction fee, no inspection, no local government dealings, no oops to pop up and gum up the works.

Absolutely! While it's true that real estate can offer greater earning potential, it can be extremely stressful & time consuming, especially if you're a landlord. I simply don't have the time nor the patience. Like you, I have invested in stocks & mutuals, and have done quite well. Historically, the stock market is bullish three out of every four years. The period we're in now is rather stagnant due to various factors, but the market was generally in bullish territory (excluding the COVID crash) for approximately 10 years after the last big recession, which went against many people's expectations. The downside is the capital gains taxes if you make a profit.

Originally Posted by Greenvalleyfan

No, I understand. Your mom wasn't in the deepest depths of dementia and you were able to handle her. That's not always the case. For you to place judgment on anyone that is dealing with a family member that is ill is not only wrong, but shows your inability to have a grasp on reality.

I clearly stated that everybody's situation is different. Did you not see that part? Dementia & Alzheimer's are among those different & highly unfortunate circumstances. What I was referring to mainly is elderly parents who require additional assistance due to a physical disability, such as being confined to a wheelchair, unable to walk, drive, or do regular tasks which most of us take for granted. Too many cases of abuse & neglect have occurred in nursing homes. Even the top rated care centers with the best professionals still can't provide the special attention & love like a dedicated family member can. Other families can & should do what they think is best depending on the situations, but all I'm saying is many younger people consider it too inconvenient, or a hassle to assist an elderly family member (selfish reasons). In any event, this has been skewed way off the topic of what the thread is pertaining to.

[garden17]

My SO and I are newbies to the PHX area. It's not our 1st choice but the main reason we came was to be close to her aging parents. They still drive and run errands on their own but their capabilities are very limited. Her mother has RA and father has COPD. They need help with household chores like cleaning, lifting and basic repairs.

I respect her greatly for wanting to be nearby so she can be helpful to her parents. It's honorable of you to care for your mother. Not many people would willingly volunteer to do these things in their busy schedules.

We looked into AL and it might come down to that very soon or having them move in with us. They are 2 of the sweetest people on earth and I'd welcome them in our home with open arms if needed.

[JSmith799]

Well this topic went sideways. How did we go from Real Estate Price Predictions to discussing our relatives Rheumatoid Arthritis?

[Greenvalleyfan]

Because topics grow legs.

[smoochaz]

Adding to this very loooong post an interesting article - so true!!!
https://azbigmedia.com/real-estate/m...ZWC5Qf9pMA7mvo

[Bicala]

Originally Posted by smoochaz

Adding to this very loooong post an interesting article - so true!!!
https://azbigmedia.com/real-estate/m...ZWC5Qf9pMA7mvo

And, then, there's this...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lr7dqUud_Mc&t=20s

I've posted some comments before on this thread, and pretty much everyone told me I didn't know what I was talking about. Here's a new news clip that can help people decide if there just might be a problem with lack of water. I would predict the opposite...my guess is home prices will decline, decline, decline, in time. (Just for the record, that's not what I want to happen...at all. I just think it will).

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Bicala

And, then, there's this...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lr7dqUud_Mc&t=20s

I've posted some comments before on this thread, and pretty much everyone told me I didn't know what I was talking about. Here's a new news clip that can help people decide if there just might be a problem with lack of water. I would predict the opposite...my guess is home prices will decline, decline, decline, in time.

And you still don't. Read the last couple of pages of this thread https://www.city-data.com/forum/phoen...prices-13.html .

[Bicala]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

And you still don't. Read the last couple of pages of this thread http:////www.city-data.com/forum/pho...prices-13.html .

Until there is a solution that shows that it's solving the water issue, I'll believe that there's still a big issue. I honestly believe people are in denial.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Bicala

Until there is a solution that shows that it's solving the water issue, I'll believe that there's still a big issue. I honestly believe people are in denial.

I honestly believe people are incapable of understanding anything beyond a soundbite. They are one (maybe two) levels deep in their problem-solving ability. Take this example (respun article about the same topic you posted):
title: "Phoenix area can’t meet groundwater demands over next century." from https://www.washingtonpost.com/clima...lation-growth/

The article goes on to highlight the subtitle with this B.S. line: "A new report amounts to a chilling warning for a region that has been a development hot spot for new residents and high-tech businesses"

lol "chilling". And here is the catch (which makes it a FACT): "There is not enough groundwater underneath the Phoenix metropolitan area to meet projected demands over the next century, a finding that could threaten the current home-building boom in outer suburbs that are among the fastest growing parts of the United States, according to an analysis of the groundwater supply released Thursday."

Well, yea!!! How "chilling". But we have 100 years of groundwater North of PHX in AZ. And that's without using a drop of water from the THREE rivers coming into the metro. See some actual facts here https://new.azwater.gov/news/articles/2018-12-01 So, I guess the Washington Post was factually "right". We do NOT have "100 years of water UNDERNEATH in the metro area. But we have 200 years of round water in AZ without taking a drop of water from a river. Will it be more expensive (PHX has some of the cheapest water in the entire USA), yep! It sure will. i think water should cost more money (and that will make people conserve). And that's not including the water in the wells UNDERNEATH. To be clear, someone should be challenging reckless growth. And that Buckeye example is a fine one to put the breaks on.

Do you see why I am sleeping like a baby? I've done my homework, and you post manipulated facts from an article aiming to garner clicks over being balanced. Because it was written by CBS or the Washington Post, people are not smart enough to realize these links write to make money. they crank out small changes to whatever they are fed every day. I can link to literally 30 articles from every paper that regurgitated this headline. This is all about being responsible. Putting a break on stupid growth. Rest assured, we will have another 1M more people coming and they all will have water. Albiet, more expensive.

Meanwhile, you can puff your chest touting how right you were all along!