Avg Phoenix home price will hit millions of dollars in few years (renting, condo)

[Valley Native]

https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/defaul...2023-02-09.pdf

Here's a list of median sales prices in various areas throughout the nation. The most recent report shows just 4 metro areas having median home prices over $1M, and not surprisingly, 3 of them are in CA. Phoenix ranks 33rd on this list, so it's going to be a long time before the median prices even come close to the $1M mark. This is considering that a good share of listings in this market are over $1M, including many in my neighborhood, but we're talking median for the entire metro area.

[locolife]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/defaul...2023-02-09.pdf

Here's a list of median sales prices in various areas throughout the nation. The most recent report shows just 4 metro areas having median home prices over $1M, and not surprisingly, 3 of them are in CA. Phoenix ranks 33rd on this list, so it's going to be a long time before the median prices even come close to the $1M mark. This is considering that a good share of listings in this market are over $1M, including many in my neighborhood, but we're talking median for the entire metro area.

2 of those markets may be back under $1M soon as well.

[EDnurse]

Originally Posted by outspokenaz

Today Katie Hobbs released a report that says the area near Buckeye - west of Phoenix - has less than 100 years of water left. This is important because a home builder can only build new homes if they can show they have at least 100 years of water available. Without water builders cant build new homes. That means the price of existing homes will skyrocket. The same thing happened in California with strict building codes - look at the avg price of a home in California today.


https://www.12news.com/article/news/...f-12758179ff88





I am not selling my house. If I move I'll rent it out. When new homes cant be built and something like 300 people moving to phoenix every single day home prices will go to the moon.

It’s already happening.

A flipper bought a house on the street north of mine for like 425,000. He redid the entire house (even added some sq footage) and just closed on it for 1.2 million. It’s insane.

I can’t move either-I’d be priced out. I don’t want to move though: I don’t have an HOA to contend with.

Location, location, location.

[EDnurse]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/defaul...2023-02-09.pdf

Here's a list of median sales prices in various areas throughout the nation. The most recent report shows just 4 metro areas having median home prices over $1M, and not surprisingly, 3 of them are in CA. Phoenix ranks 33rd on this list, so it's going to be a long time before the median prices even come close to the $1M mark. This is considering that a good share of listings in this market are over $1M, including many in my neighborhood, but we're talking median for the entire metro area.

They’re probably counting a lot of condos. There are a lot of listings for over 1 million.

[EDnurse]

Originally Posted by john3232

Didn't notice it was still active. Seller might still take bath.

What do I mean buyer spotted the area? The house sold in 2021 for under 500k. Another 400k was likely sunk in to completely renovate the property. This is common with older homes in SF for example. Why up and coming? Granted I do not know Phx very well. I am going by the horrible elementary school rating and the asking price for the home.

It’s going to be a while before that area gets gentrified.

[DetroitN8V]

Originally Posted by EDnurse

It’s going to be a while before that area gets gentrified.

It already is as long as you only look east. To the west, I agree.

[singlegirlinaz]

Originally Posted by EDnurse

They’re probably counting a lot of condos. There are a lot of listings for over 1 million.

Maybe in North Scottsdale and Biltmore but my condo isn't anywhere close to 7 figures. Most of them are compact and affordable for people who don't need a lot of space.

[Mike from back east]

Bloomberg reports: "New home listings sank 21% as potential sellers don’t want to give up their low mortgage rates."

A lot of buyers don't want or can't afford to pay today's higher mortgage rates which probably puts a damper on activity.

The expansion of major semi-conductors plants in this area may help boost new and existing home sales, so as always, local conditions may not line up with national statistics.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

Bloomberg reports: "New home listings sank 21% as potential sellers don’t want to give up their low mortgage rates."

A lot of buyers don't want or can't afford to pay today's higher mortgage rates which probably puts a damper on activity.

The expansion of major semi-conductors plants in this area may help boost new and existing home sales, so as always, local conditions may not line up with national statistics.

A few points. we are still seeing 300 people per day moving into Maricopa County from other areas— that’s 111K more people yearly. As you pointed out with the semi-fab industry, more higher-paying jobs are arriving. Builders have slowed way down in comparison. Still, inflation is increasing and the job market is (for now) strong. So that is holding our county.

As expected, in March, the average home price went from price went UP 2% from February or $417K. But I read that homes that are under the average value are not moving nearly as fast. i.e., they are more sensitive to mortgage rates which makes sense.

When April #'s are reported, I suspect homes prices might go up again. But I don't suspect that's going to happen once the summer hits. And I bet this Fall it slowly deflating.

I just stared at what our specific hood has for sale and what has sold. Homes are still selling but at a much slower velocity. I see people fish for the top (top) buck out of fear they need to buy another spot at a premium or because they are greedy. But very few people are dropping prices to where they actually need to sell. So once something looks remotely like a semi-deal, they sell. Still, premium properties in our hood always command surprisingly big money. As in, people who have thick wallets obviously don't mind paying crazy money. I'm talking about homes with a view and people are willing to pay $500K plus more for the same caliber property. those homes no longer sell in a week, but rather, in 30-60 days.

On the other hand, properties that back up to a busy road or have a lousy lot are just sitting. Specifically in that situation, if they wanted to sell now, I suspect they are going to have to give away nearly all of their $300K run-up 2020 -2022. After RE fees and upgrades, some might be upside down. But 20 resale houses in that situation and in our hood are trying to hold out. Mine's not for sale for the next 10+ years. So whatever happens in the short term (shouldn't) matter to me. But I cannot help myself to look at the trends. lol

[locolobo13]

Speaking for myself, I couldn't afford a $500k house, let alone a million dollar house. Few people that I know could. Who's going to buy houses at those prices? Where is everybody else going to live?