Nonsoon? But wait a sec? (Phoenix, Tucson: house, live, trees) - Arizona (AZ) - City-Data Forum

sh9730 · 06-23-2011, 10:07 AM

SO,

I was about to post how this is definetely so far a nonsoon - I mean 110+ and 8% RH yesterday....with the same heat predicted for the next week at least. I mean I havent even seen a hint of cumulus in the mountains yet, much less here in the valley....

BUT, then I look outside and see a little south wind, and though still early in the morning...the dewpoint outside my house here in Casa Grande is 47 degrees!!! No, not the 55 we need for monsoon...but a lot higher than the 20's and 30's we ve been having.

That would be pretty amazing if it starting turning that quickly!

HX_Guy · 06-23-2011, 10:44 AM

Traditionally the monsoon did not start until mid-end of July up until last year when they decided to give it a useless date of June 5 - Sept 15. The start used to be signaled by three consecutive days of 55+ degrees dew point. They changed it because while the old model worked for Phoenix, the whole state is more than just Phoenix. I prefer the old system.

M74 · 06-23-2011, 10:50 AM

How long have you lived here? I ask because this whole "Monsoon season with a starting date" is new. Monsoon seasons typically "tries" to peek it's little head in July. Monsoon season is nothing like it was 20 years ago. You could set your clock and watch it roll in every afternoon or early evening depending on where you lived. They also didn't seem to be as violent. They were at times sure, but lately it's seems all we get now is hellacious dust, wind lightning and in certain areas a freakin' micro burst that resemble tornados. Rain only occasionally.

They were a sight to see when I was younger. Now? Laughable. It must be weird to be a meteorologist here. "Hey good evening everybody it's..... Hot. No rain yet. Good night."

Bungle · 06-23-2011, 11:08 AM

I believe they gave it actual dates with the starting well ahead of when we actually see some moisture to let the public be aware and on the look out for these storms that can pop up out of nowhere. After watching weatherman Jamie King on Fox I could tell he wasn't a fan of having a 'start date'.

Personally I don't pay attention to it. When I'm sitting around my house and start to see moisture forming on the outside of my beer bottle...that's when I know the time is approaching.

sh9730 · 06-23-2011, 11:11 AM

Yeah, I ve been here a few years, and I completely understand the new system....but I also know that ON AVERAGE we are supposed to get our first monsoon rain here in the valley about 4th of July (per NWS site)....but usually much earlier in the mountains since they get at least the dry lightning stuff and so far no hint of that yet.

Also, the last few years have started a little earlier even before the official start of the "season". I remember hearing the cicadas going by now last year and they always seem to start hitting the trees when it moistens up.

But the other side of my post was that its actually a little more moist today than I expected. I mean even now at 10 AM I still have a dewpoint of 42 with pretty steady south wind. Maybe it will change up to more humidity more quickly than I thought!

Ponderosa · 06-23-2011, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sh9730

SO,

I was about to post how this is definetely so far a nonsoon - I mean 110+ and 8% RH yesterday....with the same heat predicted for the next week at least. I mean I havent even seen a hint of cumulus in the mountains yet, much less here in the valley....

BUT, then I look outside and see a little south wind, and though still early in the morning...the dewpoint outside my house here in Casa Grande is 47 degrees!!! No, not the 55 we need for monsoon...but a lot higher than the 20's and 30's we ve been having.

That would be pretty amazing if it starting turning that quickly!

Way too early for monsoon. First we have to suffer through the big heatup. Normally there is little moisture in the air until after the 4th. NWS has been hedging on a little moisture coming in. Maybe you are seeing that. NWS usually completely misses the first surge in my memory.

pbenjamin · 06-23-2011, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HX_Guy

Traditionally the monsoon did not start until mid-end of July up until last year when they decided to give it a useless date of June 5 - Sept 15. The start used to be signaled by three consecutive days of 55+ degrees dew point. They changed it because while the old model worked for Phoenix, the whole state is more than just Phoenix. I prefer the old system.

Actually the new system began in 2008, and the beginning was typically a little earlier in July than you suggest. But I agree, the new system is dumb.

HX_Guy · 06-23-2011, 02:47 PM

Hmm...I don't know why I thought it was later in July, your'e right though.
Here are some other Monsoon facts from Arizona Monsoon Facts - Monsoon in Phoenix - What is Monsoon

• The average starting date of the monsoon in Phoenix is July 7.
• The average ending date of the monsoon is September 13.
• The earliest start date for the monsoon was June 16, 1925.
• The latest start date for the monsoon was July 25, 1987.
• The average date of the first break in the monsoon is August 16.
• The average total number of monsoon days (where a monsoon day is considered one with an average dewpoint of 55 degrees or higher) is 56.
• The greatest number of monsoon days was 99, recorded in 1984.
• The fewest number of monsoon days was 27, recorded in 1962.
• The greatest number of consecutive monsoon days was 72, from June 25 through September 4, 1984. • This was also the greatest number of consecutive days with dew points of 60 degrees or higher.
• In Phoenix, normal rainfall during July, August and September is 2.65 inches.
• The wettest monsoon occurred in 1984 when we had 9.38 inches of rain.
• The driest monsoon occurred in 1924 with only 0.35 inches.

HX_Guy · 06-23-2011, 02:48 PM

Also, here are monthly rainfall totals for the Monsoon months...

National Weather Service - NWS Tucson

sh9730 · 06-23-2011, 03:50 PM

HX,

Yep, thats what I was saying initially...that I didnt think there was any way we would get to actual monsoon conditions (using the old method) until AFTER the average date this year...I mean again, nothing even up in the mountains yet...and they always get it before us..and its only 2 weeks away from that July 7th date....

But then I do see this little bit of moisture in the air today...still a 44 degree dewpoint down here in CG even now at 3 PM....so maybe nature knows better than me! LOL