Are Realestate prices near bottom yet?? (Orlando, Kissimmee: bank owned, days on market, short sale)

[johnnyocc]

Hi am considering purchasing in ther Celebration area? have seen homes consistently being reduced in this area, I am not looking for absolute bottom but have time on my side and would wish to establish a good price base for future appreciation, if possible in Orlando.
I realize that Florida prices swing greatly and that especially the Celebration area had seen the greatest price appreciation over the past years, thus resulting in the higher price reductions of this difficult market, any insite/opinions? I do realize there is no crystal ball but those of you that have lived in the area for many years might have a feel, thanks

[annerk]

In the more desirable areas that weren't terribly overpriced to begin with I think we've hit bottom. Most of Winter Springs, Clermont, Dr. Phillips, and Hunter's Creek have stabalized.

There will still be bleeding in less desirable areas. I don't think Poinciana, much of Davenport, and some of Orlando are done declining yet.

There will also still be declines in areas that were overpriced to begin with. Parts of Windermere and Waterford Lakes, as well as all of Bella Colina and Celebration where prices became excessively inflated will trend towards decline before they become stable or begin to rise.

[Broker Dave]

Survey just released by a group that follows the housing market is 1 in 20 Americans expect to buy next year as they feel prices have stabalized, this is primarily from the 30 and under crowd.
Celebration has always appealed to 2nd home buyers and the Iinternational crowd are you looking at a condo or single family?
There are other great areas spelled out in annerk's post above.

[wigs1]

Statistically, we're bouncing along the bottom now, and might be doing it for another year, we'll see, wish I knew!

[QuickGold]

I believe we've hit about bottom. The housing subsidy for first time homebuyers was extended recently but the government said it would be the last time. I think right now prices are stabilizing and when we hit spring/summer (which is the time of year people tend to look to buy), we will see better numbers.

[cfIfan]

What you are going to find is that areas like Celebration will fall by a larger amount because generally they are over priced to begin with. People are prepared to pay the extra because they want to live in the town Disney built even though realistically Disney dont have anything to do with the residents now.

That being said Celebration will always command a higher price and its prices will always be higher than other areas like Kissimmee etc.

At the moment im working with 3 clients who are purchasing in Celebration, and what we are seeing for those homes that are reasonably priced that homes have hit the bottom. I recently saw a bank owned home on the market 2/2 on water St so in the downtown area which was selling in the boom for $300K range and was listed for $99,000 and is currently pending.

These prices are rock bottom. Now you will find over priced homes still on the market. However, there are a great many which are priced right.

You do need to make sure you are using a realtor who is familiar with Celebration. For example if your using a realtor who is not familiar with Celebration then you wouldnt know it is split into a great many areas and the HOA's vary from area to area. For example Siena has 2 seperate HOA's just for Siena and then the Celebration Master. Water Street condos have a completely different set of HOA's.

Good luck

[johnnyocc]

I was considering the Main village area of estate homes in Celebratin, 4-5 BR w garage apt, some I've seen sold for over 2 Mil. a few years ago and are now in the 600,000-1,000,000 range. Am curious if there is stil more potential downside or if now is the opportunity? wish I had a Crystal ball, but for now i can only ask those that are most familiar with the area.

[cfIfan]

lol i know what you mean. I'll let you into a little secret and if anyone whether they are a realtor or not tell you any different then they are lying. No-one can predict whether the market has hit bottom. Do i think it has? yes. Am i or anyone else absolutly certain? No. We can only look at sales prices although it does look like the market has stabilized because those homes which are reasonably priced are selling and that is only a good thing.

You have to be in the right place at the right time and im afraid it is more a case of blind luck that statistics. The reason why i say this is because ultimately you wont know that the market has hit rock bottom until home prices begin to rise.

That being said, what i would tell you is given the reduction in price, if you are comfortable with paying that amount and it is a good price to you then it is a good deal. Everyone wants a bargain, the difference with Celebration is it is always going to cost more to live there than anywhere else, be it in home prices, HOA prices or taxes.

My professional feeling on Celebration at the moment is that there are homes which are very well priced, and given the stabilization in this area and most then now is a great time to buy and i cant see there is much further for the area to fall if at all, but unfortunatly my crystal ball is broken at the moment.

Originally Posted by johnnyocc

I was considering the Main village area of estate homes in Celebratin, 4-5 BR w garage apt, some I've seen sold for over 2 Mil. a few years ago and are now in the 600,000-1,000,000 range. Am curious if there is stil more potential downside or if now is the opportunity? wish I had a Crystal ball, but for now i can only ask those that are most familiar with the area.

[Broker Dave]

When buying a property in a community like Celebration you need to discover and breakdown the numbers; type (single family, condo, townhome), days on market (again breaking down by number of days per type), special sale provisions (short sale, foreclosure, non-distress) then compare that to the neighborhood trends over the last 6 months.
Personally I like Celebration and have friends that own there. My wife and I eat there at least once a month at the Diner then slide down to Old Town to see the Saturday Nite Cruse.

[johnnyocc]

I like and appreciate the responses i received, very insightful, helpful, and I do feel quite comfortable with the current price points, guess I'll be pulling the trigger soon, will let you all know. Again thanks for the time you took to answer, Johnny O