Guess the 2010 Population for these Ohio Cities (Columbus, Cleveland: vs, estimates)

[jbcmh81]

Both city proper and the MSA populations. What do you think they will be when the Census releases Ohio's numbers?

Cleveland
Columbus
Cincinnati
Dayton
Akron
Toledo

As some of the early releases have shown, estimates can be WAY off. Here are the 2009 estimates for both city proper and MSAs.

Cleveland
City: 431,369
MSA: 2,091,286

Columbus
City: 769,332
MSA: 1,801,848

Cincinnati
City: 333,012
MSA: 2,171,896

Dayton
City: 153,843
MSA: 835,063

Akron
City: 207,209
MSA: 699,935

Toledo
City: 316,179
MSA: 672,220

Here are my guesses (rounded) with reasoning:

Cleveland
City: 435,000
MSA: 2,085,000

This looks to be the opposite of Dayton. I think that, finally, Cleveland sees a reversal of its city proper population, and like Cincy, has begun to grow again. The outlook for the MSA, though, is not as rosy, and will probably still show an overall decline. I may be too high with my number, actually.

Columbus
City: 783,000
MSA: 1,830,000

As with Indianapolis, I think estimates will have been too low and the numbers will be higher than people are thinking. In fact, I may end up too low on my guess.

Cincinnati
City: 337,000
MSA: 2,200,000
For Cincy, estimates have barely any growth or loss in the last decade, which I think is just dumb. If anything, with the recent development downtown, I can easily see the population climbing now. Maybe not a lot, but I think the declines have stopped and probably reversed from previous decades. The MSA should come in with numbers that show continued solid growth.

Dayton
City: 150,000
MSA: 840,000

With Dayton, I think the slow bleed continues for the city proper, but I think the MSA is actually growing now vs what the estimates have.

Akron
City: 210,000
MSA: 697,000

Much like Cleveland, I think the city proper has seen some growth while the overall MSA shrinks more.

Toledo
City: 314,000
MSA: 669,000

I can easily see both the city proper and MSA losing population here. I don't think Toledo has yet made the kind of turnaround that the larger cities in the state are making. It might take several more years to see larger scale changes.

Overall, I think we see more positives than negatives in that city propers will begin to see more turnaround in growth. MSAs will be a mixed bag.

[PhillytoCincy]

Originally Posted by jbcmh81

Both city proper and the MSA populations. What do you think they will be when the Census releases Ohio's numbers?

Cleveland
Columbus
Cincinnati
Dayton
Akron
Toledo

As some of the early releases have shown, estimates can be WAY off. Here are the 2009 estimates for both city proper and MSAs.

Cleveland
City: 431,369
MSA: 2,091,286

Columbus
City: 769,332
MSA: 1,801,848

Cincinnati
City: 333,012
MSA: 2,171,896

Dayton
City: 153,843
MSA: 835,063

Akron
City: 207,209
MSA: 699,935

Toledo
City: 316,179
MSA: 672,220

Here are my guesses (rounded) with reasoning:

Cleveland
City: 435,000
MSA: 2,085,000

This looks to be the opposite of Dayton. I think that, finally, Cleveland sees a reversal of its city proper population, and like Cincy, has begun to grow again. The outlook for the MSA, though, is not as rosy, and will probably still show an overall decline. I may be too high with my number, actually.

Columbus
City: 783,000
MSA: 1,830,000

As with Indianapolis, I think estimates will have been too low and the numbers will be higher than people are thinking. In fact, I may end up too low on my guess.

Cincinnati
City: 337,000
MSA: 2,200,000
For Cincy, estimates have barely any growth or loss in the last decade, which I think is just dumb. If anything, with the recent development downtown, I can easily see the population climbing now. Maybe not a lot, but I think the declines have stopped and probably reversed from previous decades. The MSA should come in with numbers that show continued solid growth.

Dayton
City: 150,000
MSA: 840,000

With Dayton, I think the slow bleed continues for the city proper, but I think the MSA is actually growing now vs what the estimates have.

Akron
City: 210,000
MSA: 697,000

Much like Cleveland, I think the city proper has seen some growth while the overall MSA shrinks more.

Toledo
City: 314,000
MSA: 669,000

I can easily see both the city proper and MSA losing population here. I don't think Toledo has yet made the kind of turnaround that the larger cities in the state are making. It might take several more years to see larger scale changes.

Overall, I think we see more positives than negatives in that city propers will begin to see more turnaround in growth. MSAs will be a mixed bag.

Last I checked Akron's Metro area was growing. As was Canton. So Akron/Canton are actually growing. I don't give it long before Akron watches its city proper grow. I see that happening well before Cleveland. Toledo's metro area has been growing btw.

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by Beavercreek33

Last I checked Akron's Metro area was growing. As was Canton. So Akron/Canton are actually growing. I don't give it long before Akron watches its city proper grow. I see that happening well before Cleveland. Toledo's metro area has been growing btw.

The estimates I looked at at the Census site shows a gradual population loss. But again, these were just estimates. I just continued that loss, but honestly I was not very confident on Akron.

Toledo's estimates also had both the city proper and MSA declining. I based my guess on just the fact that I just haven't seen much in the way of redevelopment news come out of there compared to Cincy and Cleveland, or even Akron.

So what are your guesses? I'd like to have at least one person offer something!

[PhillytoCincy]

Originally Posted by jbcmh81

The estimates I looked at at the Census site shows a gradual population loss. But again, these were just estimates. I just continued that loss, but honestly I was not very confident on Akron.

Toledo's estimates also had both the city proper and MSA declining. I based my guess on just the fact that I just haven't seen much in the way of redevelopment news come out of there compared to Cincy and Cleveland, or even Akron.

So what are your guesses? I'd like to have at least one person offer something!

lol honestly I was looking at estimates too. I saw the Toledo Metro are growing around the 2% range. Although, I think it has the least amount of oppurtunities since it is so close to Michigan. They seem to do things like Michigan. The overall vibe feels like Michigan too. Akron is a pretty nice area. They really have diversified, and their economy still revolves around a lot of its old industries, but they have managed to modernize and grow towards a technology based economy.

[jdmcleve78]

My predictions:

Cleveland

city: 452,000
MSA: 2,000,800

I think the estimates are way off on the city proper. While I think that Cuyahoga county in general has suffered population decline since 2000, the growth in surrounding counties like Lorain, Medina, Portage, and Geauga have kept the MSA somewhat stable (maybe a little under the 2000 count).

Akron

city: 215,000
MSA: 700,000

same story as Cleveland

Toledo

city: 304,000
MSA: 665,000

don't be fooled by its 2006 (or 2007?) challenge to its population estimates...I still think it will be around the 300,000 mark

Columbus

city: 770,000
MSA: 1,800,000

I'm not sure I agree with you here about Columbus' similarities to Indi...some think that Ohios small population gain (1.6%) from 2000-2010 is all about Columbus gain and Clevelands loss....not sure columbus gained as much as people think and Cleveland lost as much as people think.....I guess we'll find out next week!!!

Dayton

city: 155,000
MSA: 840,000

Not sure about Dayton

Cincinnati

city: 335,000
MSA: 2,300,000

I have a feeling Cincy is pretty stable and will start a growth spurt this decade.

Fun stuff!

[PhillytoCincy]

Originally Posted by jdmcleve78

My predictions:

Cleveland

city: 452,000
MSA: 2,000,800

I think the estimates are way off on the city proper. While I think that Cuyahoga county in general has suffered population decline since 2000, the growth in surrounding counties like Lorain, Medina, Portage, and Geauga have kept the MSA somewhat stable (maybe a little under the 2000 count).

Akron

city: 215,000
MSA: 700,000

same story as Cleveland

Toledo

city: 304,000
MSA: 665,000

don't be fooled by its 2006 (or 2007?) challenge to its population estimates...I still think it will be around the 300,000 mark

Columbus

city: 770,000
MSA: 1,800,000

I'm not sure I agree with you here about Columbus' similarities to Indi...some think that Ohios small population gain (1.6%) from 2000-2010 is all about Columbus gain and Clevelands loss....not sure columbus gained as much as people think and Cleveland lost as much as people think.....I guess we'll find out next week!!!

Dayton

city: 155,000
MSA: 840,000

Not sure about Dayton

Cincinnati

city: 335,000
MSA: 2,300,000

I have a feeling Cincy is pretty stable and will start a growth spurt this decade.

Fun stuff!

Good estimates. I hope they are right, don't want Cleveland to lose too many people.

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by jdmcleve78

My predictions:

Cleveland

city: 452,000
MSA: 2,000,800

I think the estimates are way off on the city proper. While I think that Cuyahoga county in general has suffered population decline since 2000, the growth in surrounding counties like Lorain, Medina, Portage, and Geauga have kept the MSA somewhat stable (maybe a little under the 2000 count).

Akron

city: 215,000
MSA: 700,000

same story as Cleveland

Toledo

city: 304,000
MSA: 665,000

don't be fooled by its 2006 (or 2007?) challenge to its population estimates...I still think it will be around the 300,000 mark

Columbus

city: 770,000
MSA: 1,800,000

I'm not sure I agree with you here about Columbus' similarities to Indi...some think that Ohios small population gain (1.6%) from 2000-2010 is all about Columbus gain and Clevelands loss....not sure columbus gained as much as people think and Cleveland lost as much as people think.....I guess we'll find out next week!!!

Dayton

city: 155,000
MSA: 840,000

Not sure about Dayton

Cincinnati

city: 335,000
MSA: 2,300,000

I have a feeling Cincy is pretty stable and will start a growth spurt this decade.

Fun stuff!

Interesting for sure. You definitely have Cleveland proper doing much better than I had, but the overall MSA doing much worse.

Cincinnati and Columbus I am the least confident about. Cincinnati because estimates have held it between 330,000-335,000 for the last decade. I just don't think the population was that stable. Either they lost more or they gained more, and given the development there, I would think it gained.

Columbus makes me the most nervous. It's been the bright spot in the state, but as you said, some of that growth is just coming from other areas of the state. Ohio overall gained less than 200K people, and if I had to guess, I would think most of that went to Columbus and Cincy MSAs, with a smaller amount to NEOH, Toledo, etc.

[PhillytoCincy]

I have a feeling the census is going to be very crude to Ohio.

[Dayton Sux]

Ohio...the amazing shrinking state.

[austiNati]

Originally Posted by Dayton Sux

Ohio...the amazing shrinking state.

Not shrinking, but not really growing either. This seems like a northern/midwest problem. Anyways, my estimates for the 3 C's:

Cleveland:
city- 420,500
metro- 2,050,000

Columbus
city- 740,000
metro- 1,800,100

Cincinnati
city-345,000
metro- 2,200,250