Just how hot is the NoVA real estate market right now? (Fairfax: for sale, renters)

[Rick Lee]

I live in AZ, but am getting killed on my condo in Fairfax. I could raise the rent $200 a month, but then my excellent tenant would leave and it'd take me nine months at the new rent to make back the one month I lost trying to re-rent the place. I'm down $500 a month when nothing at all goes wrong. That's a good $30k since I moved out of the place in 2008.

I've been talking a lot with a very helpful realtor, but he doesn't convey any sense of excitement or urgency about the current market, which, I hear from others, is really heating up in NoVA. I bought in Oct. 2004, so before the peak, but ran up a HELOC while switching careers during the peak. So I need to sell it for what I bought it for in order to not have to write a check at closing. Are we almost there (again)?

[mshan242709]

What is name of condo community?

(You can see what is for sale and recent actual sale prices at the Frankly MLS website)

[kutra11]

How hot you ask? Well, for the next couple of days, everything is going to be hot... ...with temps of 90 degrees F. Ouch! Ouch!!

[FCNova]

What he said. Low inventory, low interest rates, 90+ degree heat wave. The market is very hot

[kww]

the market is definitely moving right now. condos can potentially be a more difficult property to move for various reasons (high condo dues, lack of approved financing for a community, etc)

[boyd888]

The market is very hot, but for single family homes with two car garages, 3000 sq ft, etc. There is way more demand than supply for these types of homes (in Fairfax and the other closer to DC counties). There is still plenty of land to build on in PWC so it isn't as crazy there.

There are still a ton of condos available with more being built all the time as well. While I don't think they are depreciating, I don't think condos are really hot either. Run a search and see if you can find some comps for your condo to see if it's worth listing.

[NC211]

I'd like to think that you could sell it for more than what you paid for it, 9 years ago, regardless of the existing loan balance. Not to be a jerk here, but if you've been losing $6,000/year on it, why have you not spent the $400 to get it appraised already? Now, with the low interest rates, would be the time to cut it loose from your own personal financial balance sheet. Take your current loan balance and mulitply by 1.06 to give you what you'd need it to sell for to break even and clear realtor fees. I'd have to assume that you've at least realized 6% appreciation in value over the past 9 years in Fairfax, VA. I've realized twice that amount over the past 18 months in Loudoun County alone (and I'm far from unique in that regard).

[Rick Lee]

Originally Posted by NC211

I'd like to think that you could sell it for more than what you paid for it, 9 years ago, regardless of the existing loan balance. Not to be a jerk here, but if you've been losing $6,000/year on it, why have you not spent the $400 to get it appraised already? Now, with the low interest rates, would be the time to cut it loose from your own personal financial balance sheet. Take your current loan balance and mulitply by 1.06 to give you what you'd need it to sell for to break even and clear realtor fees. I'd have to assume that you've at least realized 6% appreciation in value over the past 9 years in Fairfax, VA. I've realized twice that amount over the past 18 months in Loudoun County alone (and I'm far from unique in that regard).

Believe me, I'd done the math plenty of times. I bought for $343k and that's just about what I'd need to sell it for to pay the realtor and both loans off. Why pay for an appraisal? My realtor seems pretty knowledgeable and he's watching the neighborhood activity for me. I hear there's a unit under contract for $320k now and mine is an end unit. But I don't think that adds that much value. This is in the Greens at Wescott Ridge in Fairfax.

[CherryBloss]

We just purchased a condo in Fairfax. Unless the condo is in really bad shape we noticed (in the fairfax area) that they were under contract/had a bid within one week or two. Just what I have noticed since we have been looking at real estate over the past month--even condos are moving pretty quickly.

[CAVA1990]

It's pretty clear most of the "heat" is in lower end properties. I'm not seeing a whole lot of frenzy in the $500-750K range and a'm guessing most of the buyers are former renters or people moving in from out of the area, rather than move-up buyers looking to improve their locations or amenities. Zillow projects prices in my zip code will barely increase (by 2%) at the rate of inflation. That's not a sign of a hot market overall like we saw in the mid-2000s or like what they're seeing in California where the house I grew up in is projected to increase by 11% in the coming year.

I'd rate the market here as tepid, particularly considering the low level of inventory.