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Hi Jeb. I am curious how the SAT score of TJ is weighted in calculating FFX's average. I am under the impression that TJ has significantly fewer students than a typical FFX high school. If TJ is weighted equally with other FFX high schools in the calculation, FFX's average SAT score will be skewed to the high side.
The averages are based on the total number of seniors at the county's high schools, including TJ, taking the SATs, so the only skew in Fairfax's favor should result from the roughly 20% of TJ students who live outside Fairfax, but attend TJ. The county average is not based on an equal weighting of the averages for the county's 25 high schools.
In response to your earlier suggestion that TJ should be excluded entirely from the FPCS average, I ran the numbers to exclude 20% of TJ's students (assuming they scored no better or no worse than other TJ students) and concluded this would reduce the FCPS average by approximately six points, in which case the FCPS average - for now - would remain well over the LCPS average. I raised this again only because one of ILD's recent posts could be read to suggest FCPS test scores currently might not be higher than Loudoun's. I'd agree that, with some of the demographic and income trends in the two counties, this gap may narrow in the coming years, and there may come a time when the Loudoun average exceeds that in Fairfax, but that does not mean no gap exists today or that one knows with any degree of certainty what will happen in the future.
By the way, the average FCPS high school had around 2140 students last year; TJ had about 1850 students. That was the seventh smallest enrollment among the county's 25 high schools.
I wouldn't choose between Loudoun and Fairfax based on school quality, particularly if you are going to use SAT scores as your metric. I agree with IndiaLimaDelta. I doubt there is any difference worth considering.
I wouldn't choose between Loudoun and Fairfax based on school quality, particularly if you are going to use SAT scores as your metric. I agree with IndiaLimaDelta. I doubt there is any difference worth considering.
Some on this thread have not been shy to identify what they consider a superior "lifestyle" in Loudoun, or to suggest that Loudoun is ascendant while Fairfax is declining. However, insofar as certain metrics related to schools are concerned, Fairfax continues to score higher than Loudoun. These averages (as well as the numbers of National Merit Semifinalists) are what they are; it's up to individuals to decide whether to assign any significance to them, and if so how much. It's all part of the mix of information, along with relative traffic congestion, data on in-migration and out-migration, access to nature trails, proximity to jobs, and home prices, that people sometimes consider. Rarely does one single factor drive an entire decision; in some cases, it may be a tie-breaker.
So, for example, since I work downtown and want a reasonably short commute, no amount of data on the number of Fairfax residents moving to Loudoun would make me want to live in Loudoun. Conversely, if I planned to homeschool my kids and work at home, I would not pay much attention at all to information on SAT averages in FCPS. If I were working near Dulles or in Herndon, I might look at test scores at various high schools in Loudoun and Fairfax, but assign as much or more weight to things like the construction quality and neighborhood amenities of the local communities.
Some on this thread have not been shy to identify what they consider a superior "lifestyle" in Loudoun, or to suggest that Loudoun is ascendant while Fairfax is declining.
Oh, snap!
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Originally Posted by JEB77
However, insofar as certain metrics related to schools are concerned, Fairfax continues to score higher than Loudoun. These averages (as well as the numbers of National Merit Semifinalists) are what they are; it's up to individuals to decide whether to assign any significance to them, and if so how much. It's all part of the mix of information, along with relative traffic congestion, access to nature trails, proximity to jobs, and home prices.
We can objectively evaluate these metrics and have a discussion about them. I've read many studies about predicting post-secondary success. College admissions weigh heavily the educational attainment level of the parents for good reason. Assessing high school quality demands the researcher control for income disparity. From a social science standpoint, there isn't any notable difference between county school systems. You can find good enough schools in either place. For that matter, you find good enough schools in Fairfax without paying the premium that others seem willing to fork over in the name of quality.
Sorry that SAT scores aren't the pom-pom event you would like it to be.
We can objectively evaluate these metrics and have a discussion about them. I've read many studies about predicting post-secondary success. College admissions weigh heavily the educational attainment level of the parents for good reason. Assessing high school quality demands the researcher control for income disparity. From a social science standpoint, there isn't any notable difference between county school systems. You can find good enough schools in either place. For that matter, you find good enough schools in Fairfax without paying the premium that others seem willing to fork over in the name of quality.
Sorry that SAT scores aren't the pom-pom event you would like it to be.
I tried to put the information in the appropriate context. It's not the be-all and end-all of a discussion regarding two counties, any more so than your data on net migration. I won't bother citing back to you the prior posts in which you've expressed interest in some of the information that was posted, and the fact that the Loudoun scores tend to be tightly bunched together, while the Fairfax (and MoCo) scores show more variation at the higher and lower ends. I can guarantee you that, had the Loudoun scores increased this year, LCPS would have made a point of calling that to the attention of parents, with or without pom-poms.
I won't bother citing back to you the prior posts in which you've expressed interest in some of the information that was posted, and the fact that the Loudoun scores tend to be tightly bunched together, while the Fairfax (and MoCo) scores show more variation at the higher and lower ends.
Yes, I am very interested in the SAT information you have posted. I find it useful for demographic analysis and it dovetails with the migration numbers, providing a detailed picture of the relationship between the two counties. I'll leave all the hand-wringing about which county is better to you.
I raised this again only because one of ILD's recent posts could be read to suggest FCPS test scores currently might not be higher than Loudoun's.
And one would have read that incorrectly in such a case. I know there is some gap in the county-wide average SAT scores between Fairfax and Loudoun.
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I'd agree that, with some of the demographic and income trends in the two counties, this gap may narrow in the coming years, and there may come a time when the Loudoun average exceeds that in Fairfax, but that does not mean no gap exists today or that one knows with any degree of certainty what will happen in the future.
I agree.
My additional caveat on this score, rather, was that if you are the kind of involved parent who might have a child in the top ten percent of a good quality school, Fairfax or Loudoun wouldn't really make much of a difference.
TJ is a whole another ball of wax that we should set it aside for the purpose of this discussion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JEB77
Some on this thread have not been shy to identify what they consider a superior "lifestyle" in Loudoun, or to suggest that Loudoun is ascendant while Fairfax is declining.
I don't recall anyone suggesting either. If you think I did, you are certainly reading more into it than I intended, for whatever reason.
First, it's not that Loudoun has a "superior" lifestyle, but more that a substantial chunk of moneyed folks with families prefer the type of exurban-outer suburban lifestyle many communities in Loudoun offer. This does not mean there aren't folks (even affluent ones with families) who prefer high density Clarendon living, for example. But the numbers are what they are.
My study of the issue and survey of those I queried seem to counter the claims of those that Loudoun simply has empty space conducive to cheap large SFH and that's the main reason why people are moving there from Fairfax and inner suburbs.
Quote:
However, insofar as certain metrics related to schools are concerned, Fairfax continues to score higher than Loudoun. These averages (as well as the numbers of National Merit Semifinalists) are what they are; it's up to individuals to decide whether to assign any significance to them, and if so how much. It's all part of the mix of information, along with relative traffic congestion, data on in-migration and out-migration, access to nature trails, proximity to jobs, and home prices, that people sometimes consider. Rarely does one single factor drive an entire decision; in some cases, it may be a tie-breaker.
Yes I agree. Average SAT scores are useful. SAT scores at individual schools are more useful still. I also agree that how the scores are distributed within the county as well as within the schools are also significant.
I personally prefer a dense center in the bell curve whether income or SAT scores. It tends to foster social harmony and, by extension, more congenial peer pressure environment. But that's my view. People of a more socialist or leftish persuasion should like that by right (low Gini coefficient), yet they always seem to knock areas like that as opposed to more urbanized areas where the coefficient is higher and there is greater disparity. Not saying you are one of those folks, of course.
In any case, I think you and I agree that Loudoun has more of the kind of distribution I like than Fairfax does.
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Originally Posted by JEB77
I can guarantee you that, had the Loudoun scores increased this year, LCPS would have made a point of calling that to the attention of parents, with or without pom-poms.
I understand the occasional emergence of Loudoun triumphalism can be grating, but some of that is in response to the dismissive attitude of some inner suburb residents toward "way out there" and comments like "it's for (presumably "shallow") folks who commute 2 hours so they can have a cheap McMansion.
Call it the little brother is beginning to beat the older brother syndrome.
Sadly for rhetorical purposes, and happily for C-D harmony, your last post was largely in sync with my views and only prompts me to respond to a limited number of points.
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Originally Posted by IndiaLimaDelta
TJ is a whole another ball of wax that we should set it aside for the purpose of this discussion.
I don't recall anyone suggesting either. If you think I did, you are certainly reading more into it than I intended, for whatever reason.
I am not sure that, when comparing Fairfax and Loudoun schools, one should set TJ aside. While Loudoun students can and do attend TJ, TJ is located in Fairfax; it is more convenient for Fairfax students to attend TJ; and TJ's presence in the county may attract to the county some families with high academic aspirations whose students end up performing well on things like standardized tests even if they do not attend TJ. While SAT scores, in particular, are highly correlated with income levels, I would not exclude the possibility that the presence of TJ in Fairfax "raises the bar" for at least some other Fairfax schools to a greater extent than it does for Loudoun schools, and thus serves as a demographic "pull," in the same way that several have suggested that prosperous, and comparatively homogenous, neighborhoods in Loudoun are a "pull" for others.
Quote:
Originally Posted by IndiaLimaDelta
My study of the issue and survey of those I queried seem to counter the claims of those that Loudoun simply has empty space conducive to cheap large SFH and that's the main reason why people are moving there from Fairfax and inner suburbs.
I think you are mostly responding to another poster here, but I'd simply note that people in Loudoun should not be cowed into denying that, in some cases, one of the things they liked about the county was the ability to purchase a larger home in a newer community at a lower price than may have been the case in some other jurisdictions where land is currently more expensive. That's fairly tightly linked to a preference for a more homogenous area, which can be very tempting for people, particularly when they have younger kids.
Quote:
Originally Posted by IndiaLimaDelta
I personally prefer a dense center in the bell curve whether income or SAT scores. It tends to foster social harmony and, by extension, more congenial peer pressure environment. But that's my view. People of a more socialist or leftish persuasion should like that by right (low Gini coefficient), yet they always seem to knock areas like that as opposed to more urbanized areas where the coefficient is higher and there is greater disparity. Not saying you are one of those folks, of course.
I guess that begs the question as to whether building more communities in the outer suburbs or exurbs does anything to reduce the high Gini coefficients in the more urbanized areas. The reality is that well-educated, affluent people, whether they view themselves as liberal or conservative, generally seem to prefer to be around a large number of similar people - and that much of the dialogue that occurs about different areas is a direct or indirect appeal to the "hearts and minds" of people they would like to attract to their communities. Every time you read a post by someone that you believe to be of a "socialist or leftish persuasion" knocking an area like Ashburn as "cookie-cutter," you should consider the distinct possibility that they actually would love for Ashburn residents to move their families and their bank accounts to their own neighborhoods, particularly since they may feel like they are doing God's work by living in a more diverse community and actually want reinforcement.
Quote:
Originally Posted by IndiaLimaDelta
I understand the occasional emergence of Loudoun triumphalism can be grating, but some of that is in response to the dismissive attitude of some inner suburb residents toward "way out there" and comments like "it's for (presumably "shallow") folks who commute 2 hours so they can have a cheap McMansion.
Call it the little brother is beginning to beat the older brother syndrome.
Language matters. While I generally subscribe to the notion that what's discussed on the DC forum belongs there, and what's discussed on the NoVa forum belongs here, I got into a heated argument recently with a DC poster who described people who live in West Virginia and commute into DC or the inner suburbs as "fringe people with a lot of time on their hands." What bothered me was the apparent implication that such individuals are both marginal and indolent; he was adamant that all he meant was that (1) these people live on the "fringe" of the metro area; and (2) it takes a long time to commute from Jefferson County to DC. We tacitly agreed that we'd beaten the issue to death, and moved on, but certain phrases do appear to be deeply embedded in the lexecon of those who favor older architecture and/or denser development.
I also thought of the sibling analogy, although I am not sure whether Loudoun is Eli Manning or Serena Williams. Definitely not Patrick McEnroe. The main studies that I have read suggest that, if Loudoun plays its cards right and economic conditions are favorable, it will gain a higher share of the new jobs expected to come to the region in the coming decades than other jurisdictions in the area. I am not sure whether every new development or business that comes to Loudoun should be characterized as "beating" another jurisdiction. That's Chamber of Commerce-speak, but Loudoun currently has more available land to develop and a lower jobs-to-residents ratio than Fairfax or Arlington, and there comes a point where some residents of counties as built-out as Fairfax actually are happy that the next company is moving to Columbia or Dulles, even if it does mean lost tax revenue.
I think you are mostly responding to another poster here, but I'd simply note that people in Loudoun should not be cowed into denying that, in some cases, one of the things they liked about the county was the ability to purchase a larger home in a newer community at a lower price than may have been the case in some other jurisdictions where land is currently more expensive
If I had a dollar for every time someone who had a new job anywhere from Tysons to Herndon, and the prospect of living in LoCo came up, and the amount and quality of house you could buy for the $$ was mentioned, I would put that dollar towards my "move to Arlington, Alexandria or DC" fund.
I personally prefer a dense center in the bell curve whether income or SAT scores. It tends to foster social harmony and, by extension, more congenial peer pressure environment. But that's my view. People of a more socialist or leftish persuasion should like that by right (low Gini coefficient), yet they always seem to knock areas like that as opposed to more urbanized areas where the coefficient is higher and there is greater disparity. Not saying you are one of those folks, of course..
I am neither a socialist nor a leftist, and am a liberal only by today's odd standards, but I would say that people who want a more egalitarian SOCIETY want a low gini coefficient for the SOCIETY. Having the poor exist in our society but living in another jurisdiction (not all that far away) doesn't do anything for them as a matter of ideology, and its hardly surprising.
Whether they personally choose to live with others more like themselves or not is more a matter of personal preference.
Apparently they can be called hypocrites either way. If a liberal lives in a neighborhood with few poor people, they are hypocrites for avoiding the poor. If they live in an area that is more diverse in its SES, than they are hypocrites for not living in a place with a lower Gini Coefficient.
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