Net Migration Between Loudoun and Fairfax Counties (Virginia Beach, Norfolk: crime, new house)

[IndiaLimaDelta]

Originally Posted by IndiaLimaDelta

Except average home price and time on market only speak to the relative demand vs. supply in that particular market segment and cannot be generalize for all consumers as a whole. For example, just because Georgetown has higher average home price and/or time on the market does not mean most consumers want to live there, it simply means the relative supply of available homes there greatly exceeds whatever the demand is. That can happen even if the supply and demand in that market are very small in absolute terms. Price is only a snapshot signal of imbalance rather than absolute quantities or direction, for that matter.

Crud, let me re-write that:

Except average home price and time on market only speak to the relative demand vs. supply in that particular market segment and cannot be generalize for all consumers as a whole. For example, just because Georgetown has higher average home price and/or shorter time on the market does not mean most consumers want to live there, it simply means the relative demand of available homes there greatly exceeds whatever the supply is. That can happen even if the supply and demand in that market are very small in absolute terms. Price is only a snapshot signal of imbalance rather than absolute quantities or direction, for that matter.

[Caladium]

Originally Posted by shamrock847

Many people in Loudoun work in western Fairfax or Loudoun and have the same commute time or less than they would if they lived in Fairfax.

You can explain this over and over, but it just doesn't seem to register. I've given up trying. It doesn't matter if you offer personal accounts, or tally the number of people posting on this forum who are moving here for jobs in Reston/Herndon or Loudoun. Some people simply refuse to believe that people work out here, no matter how often the Dulles Tech Corridor is mentioned.

FWIW I think there's a fair amount of migration from Loudoun to Fairfax, as well. Young people are growing up and moving closer to DC, as young people tend to do. Since the big wave out to Loudoun began about 20 years ago, followed by lots of babies being born out in the burbs, by now there should be a large and growing wave of 20-somethings who want to move closer to the action.

[stpickrell]

Originally Posted by LynchburgLover

Don't forget there are a lot of Marylanders escaping Montgomery County's "millionaire" tax, which is now down to $100,000aires. Our area of Western Loudoun had a boatload.

I suspect most of those went to Frederick County (MD), especially if their jobs were somewhere along the 270 corridor.

As for SAT scores: I noticed the same thing for Frederick County MD in the SAT score race, a (lower-scoring) cluster of schools, although unlike Park View being the low school out in Loudoun, Urbana was the high school out in Frederick.

Finally, until Loudoun finishes building up its job base, making escape to Frederick (VA) a realistic option, I don't know if we'll see the bifurcation we're apparently seeing in Fairfax.

Also, from a surface analysis it does seem Fairfax is getting some degree of poverty being suburbanized, what with people still coming in but income leaving (or it may be more attractive to singles who by definition have lower HHI.) Loudoun and western PWC are attractive areas for families.

While there are by any empirical standards more jobs in DC and the inner suburbs, the gap is closing. But in fields like IT, it's not a huge loss to move out to Loudoun.

[JD984]

Originally Posted by stpickrell

I suspect most of those went to Frederick County (MD), especially if their jobs were somewhere along the 270 corridor.

As for SAT scores: I noticed the same thing for Frederick County MD in the SAT score race, a (lower-scoring) cluster of schools, although unlike Park View being the low school out in Loudoun, Urbana was the high school out in Frederick.

Finally, until Loudoun finishes building up its job base, making escape to Frederick (VA) a realistic option, I don't know if we'll see the bifurcation

Also, from a surface analysis it does seem Fairfax is getting some degree of poverty being suburbanized, what with people still coming in but income leaving (or it may be more attractive to singles who by definition have lower HHI.) Loudoun and western PWC are attractive areas for families.

While there are by any empirical standards more jobs in DC and the inner suburbs, the gap is closing. But in fields like IT, it's not a huge loss to move out to Loudoun.

I think that there would have been at least as much movement out of Montgomery to Howard as to Frederick (MD), and that the parallels between Howard and Loudoun are greater than those between Frederick and Loudoun. I still think of Frederick as more rural, but maybe that's changing.

[globalburgh]

Originally Posted by JEB77

I think that there would have been at least as much movement out of Montgomery to Howard as to Frederick (MD), and that the parallels between Howard and Loudoun are greater than those between Frederick and Loudoun. I still think of Frederick as more rural, but maybe that's changing.

From 1996-2010, Montgomery County is net exporting almost 3 times as many people to Frederick (#1 destination) as to Howard (#2 destination).

Edit: I looked at just outmigration for Montgomery:

1 Prince George's County, MD 112,653
2 Frederick County, MD 57,448
3 Howard County, MD 31,070
4 Anne Arundel County, MD 18,891
5 Baltimore County, MD 11,168

[globalburgh]

Here are the outmigration numbers for Fairfax County:

1 Prince William County, VA 149,590
2 Loudoun County, VA 137,947
3 Arlington County, VA 65,879
4 Alexandria city, VA 60,539
5 Fairfax city, VA 15,511

[cdmurphy]

Originally Posted by Caladium

You can explain this over and over, but it just doesn't seem to register. I've given up trying. It doesn't matter if you offer personal accounts, or tally the number of people posting on this forum who are moving here for jobs in Reston/Herndon or Loudoun. Some people simply refuse to believe that people work out here, no matter how often the Dulles Tech Corridor is mentioned.

No kidding. They would certainly know it if the folks in Loudoun really were all commuting into the city - it would be total gridlock on all commuter routes and public transport.

[stpickrell]

Originally Posted by globalburgh

Here are the outmigration numbers for Fairfax County:

1 Prince William County, VA 149,590
2 Loudoun County, VA 137,947
3 Arlington County, VA 65,879
4 Alexandria city, VA 60,539
5 Fairfax city, VA 15,511

Wow, I'm surprised Montgomery County didn't even make the top 5, or was that a possibility in what you ran. Surprised Fairfax CITY made the #5 slot, would've expected Fauquier or Stafford to be there.

[hilsmom]

Originally Posted by globalburgh

Here are the outmigration numbers for Fairfax County:

1 Prince William County, VA 149,590
2 Loudoun County, VA 137,947
3 Arlington County, VA 65,879
4 Alexandria city, VA 60,539
5 Fairfax city, VA 15,511

Huh, that is interesting. I would not have guessed those numbers to PWC. Where are they moving to? Gainesville? Woodbridge? Just curious.

[stpickrell]

Originally Posted by hilsmom

Huh, that is interesting. I would not have guessed those numbers to PWC. Where are they moving to? Gainesville? Woodbridge? Just curious.

Actually, there's two things:
1) PWC has options for upscale folks (Haymarket, Gainesville, parts of Woodbridge) and downscale (the other parts of Woodbridge, Dumfries, Dale City, etc.) Loudoun, not quite as much for the downscale set.
2) PWC has 400k people, Loudoun just hit 300k.