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jcolt, an interesting and disheartening article indeed. Luckily I'll be working in a much more recession-proof industry .
Sniff, thank you very much for the breakdown, that helps a lot. Thanks again to you both
Don't want to be too negative, but nothing was more recession proof than the legal field. Layoffs on the present scale had not been imagined. During the "internet bubble" burst, 20 years or so ago, there were a VERY few 'support staff' layoffs, which simply allowed some firms to get rid of the chaff. No attorneys were layed off, but hiring was frozen for a short time.
Presently, everyone in the legal field are stunned! Though, I must add, in some areas and departments, the firms went overboard with the hiring, as if the boom would never end. So, to some degree, its a matter of simply being overstaffed for any reality; but, it has gone way past that point.
So, frankly, nothing is recession proof.
In this city, even hospitals are closing.
It'll be interesting to see what incoming salaries will be for new attorneys, once hiring begins again. For a couple of decades, incoming salaries have risen practically each year. I wouldn't be surprised if they were to fall back, now that would be super-stunning. I certainly expect it to be the case in other fields.
That's somewhat illogical. IN a downturn, the first thing people give up are luxuries like expensive haircuts and haircoloring etc. You can get your haircut at Supercuts when you are unemployed or try a new longer style and color at home.
THere are industries that are somewhat recession proof. I'm in insurance. I called someone about a job on July 28 and started work on August 3. One call. Got the job 2 days later.
That may be so, but is not indicative of being recession proof. One can only wonder what more experienced and knowledgeable employee was let go to make room for a cheaper employee. Happens all the time.
For example, in my GF's firm, they had layoffs a few months ago, and are hiring today. During the internet bubble burst, the same firm layed off about a 1/4 of the firm, only to begin hiring again a few months later, not to mention they dispensed with the "pension plan" and instituted a 401k.
So, there are many ways to be effected by recession. Companies can lower their payscale. That new job may have been paying more a year ago?
BTW, does Supercuts do black people? Somehow, I think not.
There really is no "sure thing" in life, esp in an economy in flux. We're going through a downturn, so it's inevitable that this will happen to some extent in many many fields.
However, having a law degree from a prestigious university can probably make it easier to find jobs in related fields. But I've heard that the same situation exists in the medical field. Doctors are finding that their salaries can't cover the expenses enough to give them a truly lucrative living.
It's the same old tradeoff: the longer you stay in school, the later you enter the job force; but I think the OP is going to be interning with a good paying job at the same time if I understand the post correctly?
There was already a lawyer glut. I think if you go into a field with the sole intent of making lots of bucks, you're going to dislike your job and not be as good in your profession. Perhaps we don't need quite as many lawyers lol...
There was only a "glut" in certain areas---those pertaining to Wall St.'s financing of mortgage debt, attorney's specializing in Bonds and other underlying financial instruments. As well as those representing Developers. It is in these areas where the focus was in recent years, with firms merging or absconding other firms specializing in bonds or other firms' bond depts.
This all has to do with BIG LAW, not your local corner lawyer (though he's hurting too!).
It's not as possible to change fields as you would think. Most of these lawyers and grads are WAY over qualified. Many places won't hire them, as they know, once the market turns they will jump ship; and if they don't they'll be looking to be compensated in the manner they had originally expected. These are people who had expectations of earning in the high six figures with a few short years---and eventually in 7 figures. Not many industries can offer such compensation, and certainly not so rapidly.
Additionally, those young attorneys and recent grads who amassed great debt, in excess of $100K, some as much as $200K---NEED a certain income in order to pay off their debt. It's not just the attorneys that are hurt, the support staff is too. BIG LAW maintains a ratio, which varies from firm to firm, of support staff to attorney. Generally, 5 to 10 per attorney. A firm with 500 attorneys could have from 2500 to 5000 support staff. For every attorney layed off, a percentage of staff are too. Just like the attorneys, in seeking other non-legal employment they face the issue of being over-qualified. Additionally, there's the serious issue of their salaries----who's going to hire a secretary who earned in excess of of $100K last year? Same with Assistants and Paralegals, with BIG LAW they are at the pinnacle of their profession---everywhere else will be a serious step down in salary----most places won't hire them because of their previous salary. They know they won't be happy. Even the guys in the copy room face the same issues, perhaps more acutely, as even they have above average earnings.
JFYI, let me outline a rather realistic scenario, I once worked for a bond firm, which was, sometime during the boom years, shall we say, acquired by a much larger and prestigious firm. It appeared a good deal for everyone involved, and everyone was going to make more money. The bond firm, normally a quiet but steady earner, because of its specialty, and the R.E. boom was in a position to reap HUGE benefit. The larger firm could bring in the Wall St. clients, and the bond firm had the expertise. Great arrangement.
Until the rug was pulled out. Now, there is no Wall St. mortgage bond business; but the larger firm, now the merged firm, still has the debt incurred to make the merger, and it still has to pay the salaries, bonuses, and partner shares to the bond firm members and employees.
Where do they get this money? Out of the pockets of the firm's partners, which means that EVERYBODY across the board are going to earn LESS! It also means, smaller partner shares, a reduction in the number of partners, stagnant employee salaries, layoffs, and most likely a roll-back of starting salaries for incoming attorneys---for those firms that do hire, which number will be reduced, at the moment hiring is frozen and/or delayed.
This scenario is occurring in one form or another all across BIG LAW. There is and will be a lot of grumbling and rumbling among partners, as the end of the year nears. Some partners and their areas of business are doing just fine economically, while others aren't earning at all. So, the question is, how are profits to be divvied up? No one will want to carry those not pulling their weight. These are not corporations, they're partnerships, and it's all very personal (and can be cutthroat).
Just a flash picture.
So, for the OP, whatever his field, there is a similarity occurring in many areas. Specifically, the business climate is uncertain and facing change; and if the Democrats/Liberals have their way, not only will CEO compensation face a roll-back, but so will all corporate executive pay. I won't be surprised if all the talk actually turns into a real trend. As a result another trend may develop with corporations taking themselves private. In which case, Obama & Co. won't have any say upon compensation. It all remains to be seen, what jobs and what pay will survive.
I apologize for yapping so much, just a subject near and dear.
Well, John, if I were you, given the economic downturn, my major concern, especially, before taking on such a huge debt load, would making a cold hard determination as to whether that job and, most specifically, that salary is going to be realistic and available in a couple of years. Times they are a changing....
For example, this may not be your profession, but it highlights the prospects:
Yes this is soo true! Postion that once existed aren't in existence any more ! many are walking around with a Degree in Finance and engineering and are working for NYPD OR EVEN TEACHING IN ANOTHER FIELD ALL TOGETHER Be Careful!
You're reminding me of a friend of mine who was still paying off law school deep into his forties. I hope he paid it off before he had to start paying for his 2 kids' college tuitions!
Location: Chi-Town soon to be NYC and eventually Ireland
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elvira Black
There really is no "sure thing" in life, esp in an economy in flux. We're going through a downturn, so it's inevitable that this will happen to some extent in many many fields.
However, having a law degree from a prestigious university can probably make it easier to find jobs in related fields. But I've heard that the same situation exists in the medical field. Doctors are finding that their salaries can't cover the expenses enough to give them a truly lucrative living.
It's the same old tradeoff: the longer you stay in school, the later you enter the job force; but I think the OP is going to be interning with a good paying job at the same time if I understand the post correctly?
There was already a lawyer glut. I think if you go into a field with the sole intent of making lots of bucks, you're going to dislike your job and not be as good in your profession. Perhaps we don't need quite as many lawyers lol...
Well-intentioned, I know, but decidedly NOT true. They (career services, family and friends, etc) will tell you this, but the reality is that MOST employers want nothing to do with a JD- you will likely get your resume thrown right in the trash.
It's a rough time. BUT education is usually a good investment (esp if it is focused on a certain field). 100K is not much in loans and the interest rate is quite low. Many of them have a 30 yr payment plan... so you end up paying around $600 a month.
Well, one good thing about the downturn, despite the fact that some folks may think we're becoming a "socialist" state (lol)...good old capitalist competition.
When layoffs happen in industries across the board, the herd gets thinned out, and IMO the ones who remain may be the ones who "deserve" to be there.
For instance, I've found that since the downturn a lot of businesses are very concerned about, and want feedback re: customer service. The local supermarket chain had a scare because the Kingsbridge Armory was allegedly going to build a big box supermarket, and I found the service/staff more and more friendly and helpful (turned out that I think they nixed the idea).
I've just generally found that customer service has improved (though not in all cases) because when the economy goes south, competition for consumers grows more fierce and those who "try harder" hopefully prevail.
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This is great advice!
Be Careful!
