I had heard about this study by the Comptroller's office, but thought that the jist of it was that middle class people were more likely to leave the city. It turns out that middle class families, those earning between $60,000 - $140,000, were more likely to stay in the city, while upper middle class and those earning $40,000 - $60,000 were more likely to leave. I'm really surprised. I thought New York was losing its middle class. Am I the only one who missed this?
THOMPSON: MODERATE-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS MOST LIKELY TO LEAVE NYC
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Study Finds Upper Middle Class Households Also More Likely to Depart, But Not Move As Far[/CENTER]
Twice as many people move out of New York City to other parts of the country than migrate here each year, and those most likely to stay put are households earning $60,000 to $140,000 per year, according to New York City Comptroller William C. Thompson, Jr.’s review of 2005 population data.
In his new
Economic Notes, Thompson found that the city lost nearly 300,000 residents in 2005 to other parts of the country, while less than half as many people made the reverse relocation.
The analysis - available at
www.comptroller.nyc.gov – also determined that the region’s population boost has been driven by immigration from abroad and because the number of births exceeded deaths.
The analysis found that moderate-income families earning between $40,000 and $60,000 annually were the most likely to leave the five boroughs.
“When these moderate-income households do leave the city, they tend to move out of the metropolitan area entirely, indicating they may be seeking better job opportunities as well as more affordable housing,” Thompson said. “Only 28 percent move within New York State, to New Jersey or to Connecticut.”
Additionally, households earning $140,000 or more were disproportionately more likely to leave the city, representing 11 percent of non-elderly city households but 13 percent of households who leave. Thompson noted, however, that 60 percent of them stay in the tri-state region.
“One of the more encouraging findings in the study was that middle-income households earning $60,000 to $139,999 were the least likely to leave,” Thompson said.
Thompson’s report also assessed New York City’s economic conditions for the first half of 2007. The report noted that despite the risks posed by a slumping national housing market, subprime mortgage delinquencies, high energy prices and restrictive Federal Reserve policy, the city’s economy expanded during this period and its economic growth outpaced the nation’s and is expected to do so during the remainder of 2007.
Each period, Thompson devotes a section of Economic Notes to examining trends affecting the economic health of the city, such as self-employment and tourism. The new report analyzes domestic migration patterns. Among the key findings in Thompson’s report:
- In 2005, about 4 percent of the city’s population “turned over,” not including natural population changes caused by births and deaths. At that rate, more than a one-third of the city’s population would change over the course of a decade.
- Migrants to New York City from the rest of the country are young, well-educated, and usually single. Almost two-thirds of the domestic migrants to the city in 2005 held a Bachelor’s or higher degree and about two-thirds were unmarried.
- About 40 percent, or 76,000, of the adults who left the city in 2005 had a BA degree or higher. When international immigration is factored in, approximately the same number of college-educated people arrived in the city that year.
- The average age of the heads of households who left the city was 40 years old, compared to almost 50 years for those who stayed.
- The average income of households who left the city in 2005 was $72,000, slightly higher than the $66,500 average of those who stayed.
- Moderate-income ($40,000 to $59,999 annual income) and higher-income households ($140,000 to $249,999 annual income) were most likely to leave the city, while middle-income ($60,000 to $139,999) and wealthy households ($250,000 and above) were least likely to leave.
- Black, White, Hispanic and Asian New Yorkers each left the city roughly in proportion to their share of the city’s population.
- Controlling statistically for other factors, households with young children were most likely to leave the city.
- People who were born in other states are more likely than native New Yorkers to leave the city, while foreign-born residents are less likely to leave.
While the analysis identifies the characteristics of individuals who move in and out of the city, Thompson noted that his review only provides “indirect clues” as to the causes. Further research is needed to identify reasons for migration patterns detailed in the report.
According to official estimates, the city’s population was 8.2 million in July 2005, and that population has been growing by about 40,000 residents each year. That steady growth, though, masks a huge deficit in the internal migration flow, which totaled over 800,000 from April 2000 to July 2005.
International migration only partially offsets this deficit. Net international migration into and out of the city was estimated to total between 500,000 and 600,000, leaving the city with a net migration deficit of roughly 200,000.
“The city’s population was able to grow despite more people leaving than arriving because of the natural population increase, defined as the number of resident births over resident deaths, which averaged about 70,000 annually during the first half of the decade.”
So where are New Yorkers going? According to Thompson’s analysis, nearly 200,000 working-age New Yorkers left the city in 2005 for other parts of the state and country, but many didn’t go far. About one-third stayed in the New York metropolitan area.
Exiting New Yorkers with children were more likely – 43 percent – than singles and couples without children – 32 percent – to move close to the city. More than half of the working adults who moved to other parts of the metropolitan region continued to work within the city.
After New York, Thompson noted, the next most common destinations were New Jersey and Florida. In 2005, more than 40,000 New York City residents of all ages migrated to Florida, of whom nearly 90 percent were under age 65 (and about one fifth were children).
The report found that few New Yorkers migrated to cities or metropolitan areas typically considered the city’s principal economic competitors. Relatively few working-age New Yorkers – 26,000 - migrated to Boston, Philadelphia, Washington DC, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego and Seattle metropolitan areas, combined. (The only exception was Atlanta.)
Meanwhile, domestic migrants to the city were most likely to come from other parts of New York State and New Jersey; those two areas accounted for about 40 percent of the city’s adult domestic newcomers in 2005 (with Nassau County the single biggest source.)
Of the estimated 127,000 people who moved to the city in 2005 from other parts of the country, about 87 percent were over the age of 18. Only 12 percent of the households moving to the city had children present (compared to almost 40 percent of the households that left.)
Just 40 percent of the incoming adults were married or unmarried partners. The remaining were separated, divorced, widowed or never-married adults. In contrast, married and unmarried couples represented over 50 percent of the adults leaving the city for domestic destinations.
Thompson said migration flows shed light on the city’s economic and fiscal trends.
“Our migration analysis reveals a city in which a great deal of population change occurs,” Thompson said. “I am hopeful that this report will provoke more analysis regarding why so many New Yorkers leave New York City, and more discussion regarding how the city could enhance its appeal to families of all ethnicities and incomes. Careful consideration of migration patterns may identify opportunities to tip the balance more decisively in the city’s favor.”
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