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The "Edison" metro-area (which includes all of Somerset, Middlesex, Monmouth, and Ocean counties) is projected to see falling home values through the first quarter of 2011 (that's just about 2 years from now).
The "Newark" metre-area (which includes all of Union, Essex, Morris, Sussex, and Hunterdon counties) is projected to see falling home values through the last quarter of 2010.
The link has a pretty cool map where you can see similiar analysis for other metro-areas around the country.
Most analysts predict an "L shaped recovery" ... i.e., when prices finally do stop falling, they'll stay flat for years to come.
Anyone buying a home now should be sure they are financially capable of putting 20% down, locking an interest rate for 30 years fixed, with an emergency fund saved up, and should be prepared for their home to fall in value in the near future and to stay down for many years. If you are financially solid and sure you will stay in the home for many years (at least a decade or more) then you may be willing to pay the premium to buy high now instead of buying low in a year or two; but if you're not financially prepared to lock in a rate and weather a decline in the value of your house, you shouldn't even think of buying in this market ... it's like trying to catch a falling knife.
Good stuff. High level forecasts like this one are guaranteed to be inacurrate.
yeah, at least now Lusitan is putting in the obligatory disclaimer about "don't buy unless you're sure you're financially capable of putting 20% down, locking an interest rate for 30 years fixed, with an emergency fund saved up, yadda yadda yadda" so that he doesn't come across as a bitter old bear
No one can predict the future of real estate. NAR's pronouncements are useless and clueless. The Armageddonists pronouncements are useless and clueless.
Buy a house if you want a house. If you're scared, stay out of the market. Could it be any simpler?
I personally will always own, regardless of the market. I can't build a koi pond or work on projects in my detached garage or have friendly BBQ's on my patio while living in a dingy 2BR in Hackensack. I value the outdoor portion of my life too much to be happy in an apartment. I don't care what the market does, and I don't care about the tax deduction. Life is just better in your own home.
No one can predict the future of real estate. NAR's pronouncements are useless and clueless. The Armageddonists pronouncements are useless and clueless.
Buy a house if you want a house. If you're scared, stay out of the market. Could it be any simpler?
I personally will always own, regardless of the market. I can't build a koi pond or work on projects in my detached garage or have friendly BBQ's on my patio while living in a dingy 2BR in Hackensack. I value the outdoor portion of my life too much to be happy in an apartment. I don't care what the market does, and I don't care about the tax deduction. Life is just better in your own home.
-Marc
You can rent houses to have outdoor space. There is clearly truth to homeownership being a positive for many people.
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