[highlanderfil]

Originally Posted by DaniellaG

Here is article stating FL housing is up on average 16 percent
Florida is the number one place people are moving to
https://gordcollins.com/real-estate/...using-forecast

Cool. For what it's worth, MI's housing market is also up.

I stated before restaurants and bars are at 50 percent capacity and have to close at 11. Are you saying bars are not financially being hurt by this

Of course they are. Once again: we are in uncharted territory of a pandemic. Opening up at 100% capacity will (1) likely not return patronization to pre-pandemic levels anyways (because different people have different levels of risk tolerance) and (2) absolutely cause more cases of Covid, which, in turn, will mean more hospitalizations, which in turn will mean that at some point in time non-Covid patients will be unable to be seen by doctors because everyone is going to be back to March and April 2020 levels of Covid alert. What's more important to you?

I don’t know the exact percent but gyms I think are at 30 percent capacity, salons, etc. I don’t know the exact percentage but they have restrictions. Texas has zero

Maybe you should actually read what Texas actually has. Page 3 has all the information you need. It basically says that as long as the area has no high hospitalizations (defined by ICU bed capacity of 15% or above), restrictions are lifted. In areas with high hospitalizations, restrictions are still in place. Which makes absolutely perfect sense, since, as I've told you multiple times, the goal of restrictions is to limit the strain on the medical system - not "cure" Covid (I'm not sure how much more I can emphasize this).

If restrictions worked long term we would be in the top 3 of lowest cases with CA and NY.

And for a while (August-ish), we were pretty low. Whitmer started relaxing restrictions in October, which is when we started to see a spike which peaked about a week after Thanksgiving. Coincidental with that spike, Whitmer issued new restrictions which were also lifted when the cases started trickling down in early February. Here's a good summary.

It doesn’t matter if restrictions work for a month when you open which you have to the cases end up going up.

Actually, it is literally the only thing that matters.

Even Whitmer now sees it’s not sustainable and why she has at least kept things open. With your thought process things should remain fully closed.

Don't for a minute pretend you know what my thought process is, especially given that I've already explained it, multiple times, and you continue to ignore or misstate it. Things should be opening back up, gradually and within reason. It's not an "on-off" switch. Right now the case load is manageable, but certain ICUs are starting to run out of capacity. Whitmer will resist imposing new restrictions for as long as she can, but once hospitals start getting overwhelmed, she will not have a choice.

I don’t care if you want to not eat inside a restaurant

As well you shouldn't.

what I’m saying is the majority people especially if vaccinated are ggoing to.

You cannot possibly know this, unless you are a sociologist.

People are really not going to be willing to get vaccinated if life can’t be normal

Getting vaccinated is exactly what's going to get life to normal. But it doesn't work in the reverse. When only 16% of the people in your state are vaccinated, it is too early for "normal".

The trend for the last 3 weeks has been 45 states have been doing better then us.

Meaning what?

There is always going to be more testing in a state, a variant, population density whatever but there are 45 states doing better. It can’t be we’re doing more testing then everyone else

That's easy enough to find out, but that would be pointless. I already said that something is going on in MI which neither you nor I know the nature of. I am trying to explain it as best I can. I deal in data and things I can prove. And what I can prove, with data, is that Michigan is is somewhere in the middle in terms of testing (total) and one of the leaders in terms of recent increases in testing. By contrast, Mississippi has increased testing recently, but is one of the least-tested states overall. You, on the other hand, mostly deal in conjecture and supposition.

Of course CA will increase when they open more that is my point but unless you keep things closed it’s going to happen now or could have happened 2 months ago.

Nope. The more vaccinations you deliver and the more you coordinate opening with vaccinations, the fewer cases you will have upon reopening. New Mexico and the Dakotas have the most vaccinations per capita. Their cases are way, WAY down. Those are the states that should be opening. Easier for the Dakotas because barely anyone lives there. New Mexico, on the other hand, is still pretty restricted. Not sure why.

2 months ago some businesses may have survived

And the trade-off is that some people might not have done. What's more important? Everyone decides for him/herself.

The deaths have come down a lot because the most vulnerable has gotten vaccinated

Correct. Two thirds of Michiganders 65+ have gotten vaccinated, same with Texans. So why is that, over the last week, Michigan's per capita death rate is 50% better than Texas's?

I once read 40% of republican men won’t get the vaccine.

I've seen that number even higher. What is that supposed to tell me (apart from the obvious)?

My question is once the average group can get vaccinated and if many don’t the numbers will still be high? Then what? Still keep things restricted?

Finally, after dozens of pages, you ask the one question that bothers (or if it doesn't, it should) everyone equally and one that I keep asking myself every single day. When do we declare victory? I'm humble enough to say that I have no clue (apart from the fact that it's pretty obvious it's not yet time), otherwise I'd be making the big bucks in Washington. Others don't have my restraint and say we should do it now and deal with the fallout when it comes. Interestingly enough, nobody knows yet which one of us is right. I suspect that by the end of 2021 that picture will become a lot clearer.

[highlanderfil]

BTW, on the subject of MI schools opening: https://www.bridgemi.com/talent-educ...closures-ahead

[beachmouse]

Originally Posted by DaniellaG

Here is article stating FL housing is up on average 16 percent
Florida is the number one place people are moving to

That's long been the norm for Florida, which has been at '1,000 new residents a day' since we moved there in the 90s, with only a blip of a reduction in the 08-09 housing crash, and housing costs were spiking even before the plague.

And yeah, costs in many other places are going up as well, in some cases by significantly more. We're looking to bug out for Colorado (pretty much in them middle with covid policies) in the next few years for reasons not really related to covid and I'm just going to try not to wince when I write a check for a half million dollars to get a pretty ordinary middle class tract house in greater Denver.

[DaniellaG]

I don’t how to quote each paragraph I’m trying to address so if I miss something I apologize

Beachmouse I agree for awhile prices in FL have been going up. I lived in South FL for awhile. Now being open and run better then NY for example many are moving there. I hope you enjoy Colorado. I hear it’s beautiful there

Bonnie please correct me if I’m wrong but you stating no other states do this testing for kids and they are doing better. Yes our numbers are the highest but why can all the other states have kids engage in school sports safely without this yet MI needs it.

Whitmer for long time has said she is following the science and data. She says she does what works. Well obviously it’s not working so to do the same things over and over makes no sense.

Highlanderfil if the governor has done such a great job at following the science and data why for so long has MI had higher numbers then most other states? If all the restrictions, masks, procedures like testing the kids in sports then why yesterday were we number 1 for highest cases and for the past month in the top 5?
How come FL still today has less deaths per capita then MI. FL has 25 percent senior population. Not one state should have higher then FL in deaths since 80 percent of deaths came from seniors.

MI housing may be up now but in a year I have feelings it’s going to be like 2008. In a year I don’t know how many people are going to be but automobiles when already 12 million are behind on rent

I will read about TX but still MS and FL are fully open. Plus 15 states have no mask mandates. I understand some counties enforce. My dad lived in Idaho and some stores enforce and some don’t

Again in Aug when Covid numbers was low a lot was closed. It doesn’t matter if it’s low while things are closed cause once you open there is a surge. Just like in Feb closed low numbers and March open high numbers. What’s the difference if the numbers would of just been higher in Feb? It is just delaying the inevitable with all the open and close procedures. I really feel it contributes to why Mi is in such a bad place right now. I think we would of been in a better place if she would of let the surge happen and then come down. FL when they first opened had sometimes 15000 a day but then the numbers came down. Still less deaths then MI per capita and there hospitals were able to manage. Don’t you think the governor now see’s keeping things closed is serving no purpose? Otherwise with such high numbers she would of closed things again.

Of course it’s not an on and off switch it’s been a year. What makes MI so different from all these other states doing better? There are many states similar to MI that are doing better. Ohio has 7 day average 1800 cases vs MI 5300. Ohio has restrictions but didn’t have the open closing of restaurants and bars like MI has. Other places in Ohio were open prior to MI too

I know a lot of people under 65 who are not going to get the vaccine. So waiting for the 70 percent or whatever number is not realistic. Obviously Whitmer see’s that or she would have things closed till everyone is vaccinated. Why end of 2021 would things be better then July? If everyone can get the vaccine by April in 6 weeks after most will be vaccinated if they want. It’s going to be rare someone decides in Aug to get it. The people who don’t get in spring when it’s available to them there not going to get it at all. There may be a random person who decides later but that will be rare

[mgkeith]

Most of the cases currently found in Michigan are of the highly contagious UK variant. That is what puts the non-vaccinated public more at risk right now. This is why we are having more cases of Covid right now.



https://www.freep.com/story/news/loc...ta/4809352001/

[highlanderfil]

Originally Posted by DaniellaG

Highlanderfil if the governor has done such a great job at following the science and data why for so long has MI had higher numbers then most other states?

Do you have data to back this up?

If all the restrictions, masks, procedures like testing the kids in sports then why yesterday were we number 1 for highest cases and for the past month in the top 5?

Because the restrictions are actually being lifted (just like you wanted), kids aren't being tested yet and people are flouting mask requirements. Those are three reasons I can name just off the top of my head.

How come FL still today has less deaths per capita then MI.

Over what time period? Over the entire pandemic, MI, Florida and Texas are pretty close (150-170/100K range). Over the recent few weeks, Florida is doing far worse than MI, because they've already hit the second peak that we are only hitting now (and which for us should be blunted by vaccines - theirs wasn't, because it was too early - they had peaks in January and August, ours came in October).

FL has 25 percent senior population.

It's 17.6, actually (65+).

MI housing may be up now but in a year I have feelings it’s going to be like 2008.

Your feelings are irrelevant - they are not data.

In a year I don’t know how many people are going to be but automobiles when already 12 million are behind on rent

You've already said. This is not a Michigan number.

I will read about TX but still MS and FL are fully open.

Read about the awesome job Florida is doing.

Plus 15 states have no mask mandates. I understand some counties enforce. My dad lived in Idaho and some stores enforce and some don’t

OK. You do realize that mask mandates are nearly impossible to actually enforce, right? Coldjensens's example illustrates that perfectly. Whitmer can bang her head against the wall all she wants, but if you decide you won't wear a mask, it shifts the burden on making you do that to businesses you frequent and people you visit. And it looks like in MI, especially in thumb communities, people are refusing to wear masks.

Again in Aug when Covid numbers was low a lot was closed.

Correct. And when we opened, cases shot up. Same thing happened literally in every state when it opened. Not even Texas and Florida were immune. Texas had better luck than others for reasons I've tried to explain (low population density, local governments' interference).

It doesn’t matter if it’s low while things are closed cause once you open there is a surge.

Of course it matters. Things don't close for the sake of being closed. Things close so that, for the twentieth time, THE MEDICAL SYSTEM IS NOT OVERWHELMED. ERADICATING COVID WAS NEVER THE PURPOSE OF THE CLOSURES. Until you accept this reality, you will keep harping on irrelevant things.

Just like in Feb closed low numbers and March open high numbers. What’s the difference if the numbers would of just been higher in Feb?

The difference would quite likely have been an even greater increase in cases and more deaths because the vaccines were not yet widely available.

It is just delaying the inevitable with all the open and close procedures.

No, it isn't. And I'm going to stop explaining why this is the case, because clearly the only thing you're interested in is repeating your uninformed and unsubstantiated point of view.

I think we would of been in a better place if she would of let the surge happen and then come down.

She did let the surge happen. It happened in December. What you are describing is the Sweden model, which would never work in the States because people in Sweden are far more disciplined and far less concerned with perceived "freedoms" (which they don't actually have, but like to think they do) than us. Oh, and the Sweden model didn't work.

FL when they first opened had sometimes 15000 a day but then the numbers came down.

And how many lives did this cost?

Still less deaths then MI per capita and there hospitals were able to manage.

You do realize hospital systems aren't the same in every state, right? Florida has more beds per capita, by about 20%, than Michigan.

Don’t you think the governor now see’s keeping things closed is serving no purpose?

I am not a mind-reader, but I am going to guess the answer is "no". The governor has no vested interest in bringing down the state's economy, no matter what conspiracy theorists may be telling you.

Otherwise with such high numbers she would of closed things again.

She would have closed them down again if our medical system was being overwhelmed. Even despite the rising cases, hospitalizations are not yet up to a point where this is the case. Once we get there (though I hope we don't), she won't have a choice but to close things down again. And so will Texas and Florida. I don't like Abbott and DeSantis, but I doubt they're sociopaths.

What makes MI so different from all these other states doing better? There are many states similar to MI that are doing better. Ohio has average 1800 cases a day for 7 days.

...and rising steadily for the past two weeks.

I know a lot of people under 65 who are not going to get the vaccine.

My condolences.

So waiting for the 70 percent or whatever number is not realistic.

Who is waiting for this?

Obviously Whitmer see’s that or she would have things closed till everyone is vaccinated.

OK. Correct. What's your point?

Why end of 2021 would things be better then July?

I didn't say "better". I said "clearer".

If everyone can get the vaccine by April in 6 weeks after most will be vaccinated if they want.

Correct. I suspect it might take a little longer, because once the vaccine is open to everyone we are essentially going to double (give or take) the number of people to vaccinate, but by the end of the third quarter we should see where we are (after most have been vaccinated and immunity confirms).

It’s going to be rare someone decides in Aug to get it.

Vaccine administration overall has been pretty atrocious in terms of appointment setting, but yeah, I think you're right. So, by August most people who want to get the vaccine, will. Add another couple weeks for immunity to be confirmed and I am sure by then we will see most of the restrictions lifted, unless something unforeseen (e.g., the vaccine-resistant Brazilian or South African variant screwing everything up) happens.

The people who don’t get in spring when it’s available to them there not going to get it at all.

You don't know that, either, actually. This is anecdotal evidence, so it's not worth much, but I do know people who were eligible in spring and refused to get the vaccine because they wanted to see the effect it had on others first. It's a selfish approach, but I get it. Now that we aren't all growing antlers and tails having gotten the vaccine, I'm sure some of the skeptics will be more likely to get themselves vaxxed, as well, especially if they have any hope of, say, doing any international traveling anytime soon.

There may be a random person who decides later but that will be rare

Once again, you have no way of knowing this to be true. Vaccine acceptance has increased rather dramatically in the U.S. over the past year (though it fell slightly - from 66% to 63% - once the vaccines were started to roll out because of how poorly the process has gone). But that doesn't mean there won't be massive swaths of the population who will refuse to get their shots, even though they are not in the risk group of major side effects. They are the ones at whom you should be pointing your finger as reasons for persisting restrictions (and growing cases of vaccine-resistant variants).

[highlanderfil]

Originally Posted by mgkeith

Most of the cases currently found in Michigan are of the highly contagious UK variant. That is what puts the non-vaccinated public more at risk right now. This is why we are having more cases of Covid right now.



https://www.freep.com/story/news/loc...ta/4809352001/

This is new news. Just a week ago I think I was reading that the UK variant was not the reason for the climb. I wonder where it's coming from...

Looks like the South African strain is also up. That's the one that worries me the most.

[beachmouse]

While I’m not clear on the details, high school student-athletes here seem to get their share of test based on the number of football games that were getting cancelled last fall because one of two players would test positive and too many other players would have to quarantine due to close contact rules.

[DaniellaG]

FL is not doing worse then MI. There 7 day average is 5100 and MI has 5300. FL has more then double the population

At the news conference Desantis said 25 percent are seniors regardless they have higher senior population then MI

Regardless that Whitmer one in I think 3 or 4 governors places the nursing homes patients back in the nursing homes and contributed to a huge percentage of the deaths is huge negligence. You don’t even seem to care about that. 46 other states found alternative care for their seniors

In the last month we have been in the top 5 highest cases
I already posted many links on here.

FL surge when they had 15000 cases still had less lives lost then MI

Even if Ohio cases are rising why are they doing so much better then Mi? Our cases are rising too. 1800 vs 5300 is a big difference

It’s not like I’m only stating TX and FL are doing better basically every state is now doing better.

[DaniellaG]

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...es/7059595002/

This shows for 5 straight weeks MI Covid numbers have increased. For the last 7 days only NY has had higher Covid numbers