Florida House Prices........See Chart (Miami: real estate, foreclosures, mortgage)

[dewasw]

Follow the dotted line to the future.........thanks to the Rothschild Cartel (aka the Federal Reserve)

[dewasw]

Another piece of intel from Martin Armstrong's recent article: "Is it Time to Turn Out the Lights".

How could real estate decline for so long? The two contracting factors that are conspiring against real estate are (1) the Debt Crisis cutting off available capital to keep the bubble expanding, and more importantly, (2) the collapse in state revenues. The states and municipal districts rely upon property taxes. The greater the mortgage crisis, the greater the foreclosures, and that suspends the tax revenues as well. This causes the collapse in state and local revenues forcing states to raise taxes even higher and this is precisely the combination of a debt crisis that ends societies and has been the destroyer of civilization.

Bottomline: Get ready for Florida's gov't to raise taxes (sales, income, and property)

[dewasw]

Regarding the slope of the dotted line in the posted chart. Please consider two things: 1) the big banks, Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae announced a mortgage moratorium a couple of weeks ago, and that action has greatly slowed down the foreclosure rate, and 2) another round of mortgage interest rate increases are about to be RESET higher per the mortgage contract. Also affecting the housing price decline, the unemployment rate of 20 thousand jobs lost per day (gov'ts nation wide number) will accelerate the mortgage default rate in about 90 days.

I stole this from another board because it pertains to Robert Shiller's chart: When we reach the housing bottom, Shiller expects some 25 million borrowers will be underwater on their mortgages. That's half of all mortgages and one-third of all owned houses in the U.S. Similarly, he doesn't think the current recession will end until at least early 2010. That would make this the longest recession by far since World War II.
I also think he is saying the total decline from the 2007 peak will be 40% with 27% down so far.
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Somebody please comment.........I know Mr. Tallrick understands these forecasts and eventually, where house prices are headed.

[dewasw]

Over the weekend, Larry Summers (Obama's economic advisor) said: "that monthly job losses of 600k+ are unlikely to end soon and job cuts are probably not going to stop imminently"

That's 20,000 jobs lost per DAY ......maybe it's a good idea to stop spending and start saving to build-up cash reserves.

[rogerbacon]

Originally Posted by dewasw

......maybe it's a good idea to stop spending and start saving to build-up cash reserves.[/color]

I disagree. With all of the money that the Obama administration has pumped into the economy, high levels of inflation are right around the corner as soon as the economy starts to recover. Holding cash is a terrible idea. I plan to spend a lot of money in the next month. Buy things that you can turn back into cash if you have to and only keep enough cash reserves to hold you over for the time you expect it would take to turn those tangable goods back into cash.

[dewasw]

Roger,

Thanks for the comment and in response, I worked up a lengthy reply but lost it in the ethernet due my mistake.....sorry

[Cougar Beach]

Originally Posted by rogerbacon

Buy things that you can turn back into cash if you have to and only keep enough cash reserves to hold you over for the time you expect it would take to turn those tangable goods back into cash.

Things that you can turn back into worthless cash?

Anyway, how do you suggest dealing with the current mess? Might it just fix itself?

[dewasw]

I’m intellectually lazy, therefore; I’m going to plagiarize the thoughts and words of someone whom I believe has a handle on the mismanagement of the US economy. You probably ask yourself why I’m posting gloom and doom stuff. Well, after reading tons of subjects on the Miami Forum, I think my fellow Floridians need to be aware of the economic happenings that you won’t hear on TV or read in the printed media.
With no further ado, here’s Rasputin’s commentary:

That's it. We're scroomed.
Wed, Mar 18, 2009 - 05:57 PM

Anyone who has followed my numerous, boring, repetitive posts through the years is painfully aware that I have spent inordinate amounts of time harping about Ben Bernanke's November 21st, 2002 speech entitled:

"Deflation: Making Sure it Doesn't Happen Here".
...the link to which can be found here:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm

In this lengthy speech, Bernanke essentially laid out the "Road to Weimar" regarding the steps the Fed could take to fight a major-league deflation/depression.

Many people derided my dissections of Bernanke's speech through the years as they just couldn't accept the fact that the Fed would resort to such drastic measures as Bernanke was threatening to do.

The nay-sayers stated that the Fed would NEVER buy Agencies, NEVER prop up private financial institutions, NEVER resort to outright monetization to fend off "Great Depression II"

Well, today the Fed officially "crossed the Rubicon" with their statement that not only are they going to massively bump up buying dead Agency MBS, but also dive into buying Treasuries as well.

And in no small amounts either.
So, Bernanke is finally making good on every single threat he made in that fateful speech made in 2002.

If need be, the Fed will literally burn the currency to the ground to impel the masses to start spending and borrowing again.

And please don't make the fatal mistake of believing that the Fed will now simply fold up its tent and walk away from this "to-the-death" fight between the forces of debt and derivatives destruction and the central bank's efforts to overcome it: There is no turning back now.

Furthermore, today's statement by the Fed makes it painfully clear that the Asian central banks are pulling back on their Treasury/Agency purchases and the Fed has to step up and monetize the MASSIVE amounts of new U.S. government debt that is being issued.

So, this is it. We're scroomed. The Fed just threw the panic switch and admitted they are now totally desperate. And remember, this action comes a FULL YEAR AFTER the Maiden Lane, LLC (bail-out company) creation and trillions of fiatscos (that’s US dollars) already flung at the debt and derivatives collapse. One would have thought that by now the central banks would have the situation well under control.

But they don't.
So, the bottom line is this:

The gloves are off. This is a fight to the finish.(pull the wool back from your eye's so you can see this thing coming)
And the Fed doesn't care if it totally destroys the U.S. fiatsco in order to re-ignite the "Animal Spirits" of rampant spending and speculation. (US dollar down big today on the forex exchange).
In fact, they are encouraging it.(think about it, US exports will be very competitve globally if the dollar exchange value drops and that means US factories will be humming with lot's of jobs)

Italicized comments in red are mine.

[rogerbacon]

Originally Posted by Cougar Beach

Things that you can turn back into worthless cash?

Anyway, how do you suggest dealing with the current mess? Might it just fix itself?

Back in to INFLATED cash, yes. This, of course, is assuming that inflation really takes off like it could. However, there is no certainty of it. The Fed has some tools to prevent runaway inflation but they've never been tested to the extend they may need to be this time.

Yes, this mess would fix itself if the government would let it. However, like a bunch of middle managers the Congress feels they have to look busy doing something in order to justify their jobs. A study from UCLA showed that FDR added 7 years on to the great depression with his government meddeling. Sadly the current administration seems to be following FDR's plan so it may be a longer that typical downturn.

[Cougar Beach]

Originally Posted by rogerbacon

Back in to INFLATED cash, yes. This, of course, is assuming that inflation really takes off like it could. However, there is no certainty of it. The Fed has some tools to prevent runaway inflation but they've never been tested to the extend they may need to be this time.

Yes, this mess would fix itself if the government would let it. However, like a bunch of middle managers the Congress feels they have to look busy doing something in order to justify their jobs. A study from UCLA showed that FDR added 7 years on to the great depression with his government meddeling. Sadly the current administration seems to be following FDR's plan so it may be a longer that typical downturn.

Do you think the UCLA study is the last word in understanding about the depression, and attempts to deal with it? Are you familiar with the unemployment and GNP numbers, and how they were improving through the 30's, until 1938, when his more conservative advisers convinced him that it was the right time to to be concerned about the deficit? And what happened when he cut spending? The economy started sinking.

Roosevelt started his first term in 1933. Now look at the charts here:

The Great Depression

The U.S. entered World War II at the end of 1941. What effect do you think that might have had? If it helped pull the U.S. out of the depression, what would you call the economic mechanism? Keynesian, maybe?

The credit markets were frozen early in the depression. As bad as it was, it could have been a lot worse.

I'll bet you also have views on the Japanese economic downturn that started in early 1990.