Natick, Wayland, or Sudbury? (Boston, Cambridge: for sale, real estate, how much)
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If folks stop responding I'll stop posting.. But as long as people are interested in discussing, I have a new set of towns I've honed in on for my house search!
Our (myself, wife, baby) must-have criteria are:
high quality schools
safe
nice, turn-key 4+ bd, 2.5+ ba, 2500+ sq ft for < $1.5M
< 1 hr commutes to Burlington and Boston (both my wife and I will be working from home at least 4 days a week)
decent restaurant selection < 10 minutes drive
aesthetically nice neighborhood
Nice-to-haves:
< 15 minutes drive to a walkable town center
Folks may remember from this previous thread of mine that living in a town with a walkable town center – and even better still, being walking distance to that walkable town center – was a top priority for me. But folks made good points in that thread, and while it would still be nice to be a reasonable drive to a walkable town center, it's no longer a high priority. Certainly paying the premium to be walking distance to a walkable town center is not worth it, and if I'm going to have to drive to it anyways then it doesn't really matter if it's in the same town or not. And people also pointed out that with kids we aren't going to have nearly as much time to spend sauntering around downtown anyways as we'll be busy with the kids' activities.
And folks may remember from this other thread I started that, although I initially favored medium-density suburbs, I now see benefits to both medium-density and low-density, and I think we could be comfortable in either environment.
Lastly, for personal reasons we prefer to be west of Boston rather than north, east, or south. Previously I'd eyed some towns that are not west, such as Melrose and Reading, but we've since decided that our reasons for preferring west are important enough to rule out other directions.
Other towns that deserve honorable mention: Concord, Lincoln, Weston, and Wellesley. However, I think for the quality of house we want, we are at least 200K short on budget for those towns. And in any event we can get more bang for our buck in Natick, Wayland, and Sudbury compared to these other towns, and with our minimal commuting needs and similar school quality between both sets of towns I don't think it makes sense to pay the premium for them.
I have read all the previous threads here on C-D about Natick, Wayland, and Sudbury and they've all been extremely helpful. I just thought I'd see if I could kick up a new round of discussion, as people always seem to have more to add!
Sudbury and Wayland can be pretty tough to get in/out of. However, the northern end of those towns may offer you the best commute. Wayland being closer to the highway may be the best commuting location in this case.
Personally, I've always thought Sudbury was a great town. It's a lovely place with large lots, well regarded schools, and there's actually a nice smattering of commercial property in town and a decent selection of restaurants. This might surprise but there's actually a cigar bar on RT20 in Sudbury. The new Whole Foods there is really nice too. There are even some great sushi options in town. When real estate changed directions about 15 years ago, Sudbury got hit pretty hard and because of that it's actually a pretty good value when you compare it to places like Needham, Wellesley, Newton, Weston, etc.
I like Natick too and the town center is nice plus you're super close to all the shopping in the Golden Triangle. It's not as good of a value as it was 10 years ago as Natick has caught up a bit with some of it's more expensive neighbors but homes there are still a good bit more affordable than some neighboring towns.
Wayland I'm not a huge lover of. It's a nice town, but super sleepy like it's neighbor Weston. Not easy to get in and out of either and the home values are pretty high plus their real estate tax rate I believe is the highest in the state. So, you'll pay a lot for your house and get taxed through the nose on top of it.
Only the southern part of Natick can be described as low density & bucolic. It also happens that the southern stretches of Natick are almost as hard to get as Wayland and Sudbury (easier commute into Boston, especially with the train, but much tougher commute into Burlington). Right now, I don't see any houses that meet the OP's criteria.
A large portion of of Wayland is at least medium density, however, the northern & westernmost stretches include some lovely scenic roads like Old Connecticut Path west of 126, Rice Rd, Draper Rd & Glezen Rd. Again, the bigger issue in my opinion is that we are talking about a pretty limited addressable market. I don't see any houses that fit the bill.
Sudbury can be pretty indistinguishable from neighboring northern Wayland in almost every regard: schools, access to amenities and commute, etc. By the way, it is not true that Wayland has the highest tax rate in MA. Sudbury actually has a slightly higher rate of $18.83/1000 vs. $18.52 for Wayland. There are several towns above $20. Natick does have a big advantage in this regard at $13.63 thanks to its commercial tax base. Because Sudbury is the only town of the three that is uniformly low density, there are usually more options to choose from. I say usually because right now I don't see anything at <$1.5M.
These low density markets have seen a huge rerating over the last 18 months. You could have had your pick and right now I don't see any appealing houses at your budget in either of those three town- I am not looking at houses with less than 1/2 acre (I'd probably say you need at least two acres to really get that low density feel, but that just me). Good news for you is that you are pretty flexible with regards to your location. If I were you, I would be less town specific and more house driven and I would add northern Sherborn & Dover (really no material difference vs. South Natick and better schools & Dover has much lower taxes), Lincoln & Weston (perhaps harder to fit your budget but it doesn't hurt to keep an eye) and finally Concord, southern Carlisle, westernmost Acton (around Pope Rd) and some portions of western Bedford, if you are ok with being a bit further north. All of these towns have great schools and large parts of them have a nice rural feel. Almost no houses in these low density set of town have a good restaurant selection in <10 minutes (perhaps the exception being central Concord and western Lincoln and Weston neighboring Waltham). Depending on how high your bar is, I would argue that is a tall order anywhere in the Commonwealth, with the exception of Cambridge, parts of central Boston and Coolidge Corner.
Just realized that even increasing the geographic scope does not improve things (this is the only marginal house I've found https://www.redfin.com/MA/Dover/19-S.../home/11707326). It might be tough to find a good-sized, recently renovated or newish house with a decent amount of land at your price. You might have to compromise on how renovated is good enough.
This just came out, at $1.55M. By far best option I see.
Only the southern part of Natick can be described as low density & bucolic.
That's not true. There are parts of Natick that border Wayland and are indistinguishable from a Wayland neighborhood.
Quote:
Originally Posted by maclel
Right now, I don't see any houses that meet the OP's criteria.
The inventory shortage issue in the real estate industry combined with the fact that seasonally this is a time of year when inventory levels typically drop way down means that it's hard to judge what you can buy where and for what at this time of year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by maclel
By the way, it is not true that Wayland has the highest tax rate in MA. Sudbury actually has a slightly higher rate of $18.83/1000 vs. $18.52 for Wayland. There are several towns above $20. Natick does have a big advantage in this regard at $13.63 thanks to its commercial tax base. Because Sudbury is the only town of the three that is uniformly low density, there are usually more options to choose from. I say usually because right now I don't see anything at <$1.5M.
I stand corrected. For some reason, I had it in my head that Wayland was in the $20+ range. I guess my memory is not as good as it used to be.
I do want to add though that real estate values and therefore assessed values are lower in Sudbury vs. Wayland. Average sale price in Sudbury is about 30% lower than Wayland. However, I think that's more about the difference in housing stock in the two towns. You shouldn't read that and think "I can get the same house in Sudbury instead and pay 30% less than I would in Wayland!!!" Anyway, values are generally lower in Sudbury and again that will result in lower assessments and I would estimate should at a minimum offset the difference in tax rate if not generally result in a lower tax bill annually given an equivalent house in Sudbury vs. Wayland.
Boston.com used to post a table with the tax rates, avg. assessments, and avg. RE tax bill every year but I can't seem to find it.
That's not true. There are parts of Natick that border Wayland and are indistinguishable from a Wayland neighborhood.
The inventory shortage issue in the real estate industry combined with the fact that seasonally this is a time of year when inventory levels typically drop way down means that it's hard to judge what you can buy where and for what at this time of year.
I stand corrected. For some reason, I had it in my head that Wayland was in the $20+ range. I guess my memory is not as good as it used to be.
I do want to add though that real estate values and therefore assessed values are lower in Sudbury vs. Wayland. Average sale price in Sudbury is about 30% lower than Wayland. However, I think that's more about the difference in housing stock in the two towns. You shouldn't read that and think "I can get the same house in Sudbury instead and pay 30% less than I would in Wayland!!!" Anyway, values are generally lower in Sudbury and again that will result in lower assessments and I would estimate should at a minimum offset the difference in tax rate if not generally result in a lower tax bill annually given an equivalent house in Sudbury vs. Wayland.
Boston.com used to post a table with the tax rates, avg. assessments, and avg. RE tax bill every year but I can't seem to find it.
Sorry, but you are compounding the mistake on Sudbury vs Wayland’s taxes. Sudbury’s average sales price or assessed values are not 30% lower. In fact the average tax bill is about the same in both towns: https://web.archive.org/web/20201126...224009991/PH/1
Wayland probably has higher price per square footage but Sudbury I think has bigger homes.
There’s truth in that we are past prime real estate season, but it’s also true if you had conducted the same search any prior year over the last 12 you would have found a lot more matches and it’s not clear to me that is going to change in the near-term.
Most of Wayland bordering Natick is Cochituate, which is not low-density. The fact is that most low-density housing in Natick is in the south, close to the Charles. This is consistent with my recommendation to the OP to look north and west in Wayland.
Regarding prices in these towns – not tax burden but just looking at median sale prices – according to a recent Compass report, Q2 MSPs for SFHs were:
Natick: $760K (97 sales)
Sudbury: $1.03M (80 sales)
Wayland: $1.005M (55 sales)
Of course, these numbers are not adjusting for home size or quality. I assume that the Natick MSP is dragged down by a higher fraction of smaller homes, and that if I could filter on houses that meet my criteria the numbers would be much closer (and all would be higher). But, Sudbury and Wayland being very close in price doesn't sound off.
maclel, I would like to clarify – I don't necessarily need a bucolic setting. I am open to that, but also to medium density neighborhoods. Perhaps you inferred that from my requirement for an "aesthetically nice nieghborhood" – which is admittedly vague. While bucolic does fit that bill, I also also find medium density neighborhoods with well-architected and well-maintained houses and tree-lined streets to be aesthetically nice. Maybe I should have framed that requirement in terms of what I want to avoid: high-density neighborhoods, overly urban/concrete, and areas where the surrounding houses are not well maintained.
Ok, that makes sense. Given your flexible criteria, it sounds like you could live in pretty much in any town west of Boston as long as you find a nice house & neighborhood within your budget. If I were in your shoes I would keep an open mind regarding towns, visit a lot of houses and be ready to pull the trigger if something comes across.
Sorry, but you are compounding the mistake on Sudbury vs Wayland’s taxes. Sudbury’s average sales price or assessed values are not 30% lower. In fact the average tax bill is about the same in both towns: https://web.archive.org/web/20201126...224009991/PH/1
Wayland probably has higher price per square footage but Sudbury I think has bigger homes.
Very strange! Last night I was looking at some numbers that had average sale price in the high 700's. I thought that was low, but when I try to find those numbers today I can't find them. When I look today I see two fairly close average sale prices between the two towns. Based on the numbers in the article you linked, I think I may have somehow grabbed numbers that were Sudbury 2020 vs. Wayland 2021. My apologies again! Such sloppiness is not like me.
This being said, the article you linked to does have Wayland ranked higher for "highest property taxes." RE values are higher in Wayland and even though the rate is higher in Sudbury that does seem to entirely offset the difference at least on a very averaged out "town wide" basis. Whether you're truly paying more in RE taxes for a similar house in one town or the other would involve a much more time consuming analysis that I just don't have the spare time to do. It does seem though that while I was wrong about the amount of difference that all signs do point to a lower tax burden in Sudbury vs. Wayland.
Quote:
Originally Posted by maclel
There’s truth in that we are past prime real estate season, but it’s also true if you had conducted the same search any prior year over the last 12 you would have found a lot more matches and it’s not clear to me that is going to change in the near-term.
As I previously stated, we're currently dealing with a scarcity of inventory in the real estate industry. It's been an issue in some towns for a number of years but it's particularly bad and quite widespread this year.
That's compounded by the typical seasonal drop in inventory we see this time of year. I'm not really sure how what you're saying is any different than what I already stated. So, it sounds like there's more than just "some" truth in it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by maclel
Most of Wayland bordering Natick is Cochituate, which is not low-density. The fact is that most low-density housing in Natick is in the south, close to the Charles. This is consistent with my recommendation to the OP to look north and west in Wayland.
There are pockets of low(er) density housing in Northern Natick. Again, I didn't say the whole of North Natick was low density and certainly the OP never said they were looking for multiple acres. You can find houses fairly easily in north Natick that are on larger lots.
Quote:
Originally Posted by thinkingotherthings
Regarding prices in these towns – not tax burden but just looking at median sale prices – according to a recent Compass report, Q2 MSPs for SFHs were:
Natick: $760K (97 sales)
Sudbury: $1.03M (80 sales)
Wayland: $1.005M (55 sales)
Admittedly, Sudbury and Wayland are towns I haven't had any clients for this year. So, my information may be a little dated. In more recent years there was a larger price gap between the two towns and so perhaps Sudbury is not the value it was prior to this year. This being said, I still prefer the variety of shops/restaurants/supermarkets you'll find locally in Sudbury vs. Wayland.
Quote:
Originally Posted by thinkingotherthings
Of course, these numbers are not adjusting for home size or quality. I assume that the Natick MSP is dragged down by a higher fraction of smaller homes, and that if I could filter on houses that meet my criteria the numbers would be much closer (and all would be higher). But, Sudbury and Wayland being very close in price doesn't sound off.
I ran some super fast reports for sales in these three towns of houses 3,000-4,000 sq feet and I filtered out less popular home styles (raised ranch, split level, etc.) and homes with fewer than 4 bedrooms to give you some more meaningful numbers. Keep in mind, there are still a lot of ignored aspects of the home in such a simple analysis. I did feel though that looking at a smaller, more relevant to the discussion subsection of the market could be helpful here.
Again, I've controlled here for size of house, number of bedrooms, and style of house but lots of other factors that go into valuing a home were completely ignored. It does seem that your money goes a bit (not massively) further in Sudbury.
While some towns over/under assess, it wouldn't be an unreasonable assumption to take this a step further and say that if you're paying roughly 13% less in Sudbury and the tax rate is roughly 2% higher in Wayland that your tax burden could potentially be lower in Sudbury. It depends on how much under/over assessing would come into play here and it will not be overnight that the current rise in values impacts our tax assessments. Either way, there's not a ton of spread between these sales numbers and with Natick having a much lower tax rate of $13.61 it might be the belle of the ball.
Inventory is so scarce that I would suggest doing one of these two things with your home search:
1. Pick one agent to work with who lives in and specializes in your town of choice. There's a lot selling off market these days (personally I think this is INSANE) and if you're looking in Natick and working with an agent who's based in and lives in Newton then you're going to miss out on a lot of opportunities.
2. Work with whatever agent you want, but keep an open mind about what town you're willing to live in. Opening up your search to multiple towns will increase your odds of success if you're working with an agent who will only come up with the "obvious" listings.
I ran some super fast reports for sales in these three towns of houses 3,000-4,000 sq feet and I filtered out less popular home styles (raised ranch, split level, etc.) and homes with fewer than 4 bedrooms to give you some more meaningful numbers. Keep in mind, there are still a lot of ignored aspects of the home in such a simple analysis. I did feel though that looking at a smaller, more relevant to the discussion subsection of the market could be helpful here.
Again, I've controlled here for size of house, number of bedrooms, and style of house but lots of other factors that go into valuing a home were completely ignored. It does seem that your money goes a bit (not massively) further in Sudbury.
Thanks for running this analysis Mike, this is great!
What is the timeframe – all of 2021, or Q2 only? Also do you have the counts of how many sales in each town under the filters you applied?
Quote:
Inventory is so scarce that I would suggest doing one of these two things with your home search:
1. Pick one agent to work with who lives in and specializes in your town of choice. There's a lot selling off market these days (personally I think this is INSANE) and if you're looking in Natick and working with an agent who's based in and lives in Newton then you're going to miss out on a lot of opportunities.
2. Work with whatever agent you want, but keep an open mind about what town you're willing to live in. Opening up your search to multiple towns will increase your odds of success if you're working with an agent who will only come up with the "obvious" listings.
We are working with an agent that we like, although unfortuntely I don't think he gets a ton of inside scoops on these particular towns.
Ok, that makes sense. Given your flexible criteria, it sounds like you could live in pretty much in any town west of Boston as long as you find a nice house & neighborhood within your budget. If I were in your shoes I would keep an open mind regarding towns, visit a lot of houses and be ready to pull the trigger if something comes across.
The rub is staying within striking distance of Boston and Burlington too. And to be more specific about the "west" constraint: we want to be < 1 hr commute to Hudson. Going farther south of Natick, or east of Natick (at the same latitude), starts to pull us too far from Burlington and Hudson, and possibly Boston, I think.
Another town that might fit the bill is Acton. But, for some reason we haven't been able to muster much excitement for Acton even when we see a house that meets our criteria. I think part of the reason is just that we are less familiar with Acton than the other towns; and also it might be a shade farther from Boston than we're comfortable with. But we should probably take another look at Acton.
That said, I do feel good about the three towns I've named in this thread. As you mentioned inventory is completely shot right now, but as much as I would like to buy ASAP, I am willing to hold out until next spring if needed to get the right house, rather than buy a house now that I'm not happy with.
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