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Very strange! Last night I was looking at some numbers that had average sale price in the high 700's. I thought that was low, but when I try to find those numbers today I can't find them. When I look today I see two fairly close average sale prices between the two towns. Based on the numbers in the article you linked, I think I may have somehow grabbed numbers that were Sudbury 2020 vs. Wayland 2021. My apologies again! Such sloppiness is not like me.
This being said, the article you linked to does have Wayland ranked higher for "highest property taxes." RE values are higher in Wayland and even though the rate is higher in Sudbury that does seem to entirely offset the difference at least on a very averaged out "town wide" basis. Whether you're truly paying more in RE taxes for a similar house in one town or the other would involve a much more time consuming analysis that I just don't have the spare time to do. It does seem though that while I was wrong about the amount of difference that all signs do point to a lower tax burden in Sudbury vs. Wayland.
As I previously stated, we're currently dealing with a scarcity of inventory in the real estate industry. It's been an issue in some towns for a number of years but it's particularly bad and quite widespread this year.
That's compounded by the typical seasonal drop in inventory we see this time of year. I'm not really sure how what you're saying is any different than what I already stated. So, it sounds like there's more than just "some" truth in it.
There are pockets of low(er) density housing in Northern Natick. Again, I didn't say the whole of North Natick was low density and certainly the OP never said they were looking for multiple acres. You can find houses fairly easily in north Natick that are on larger lots.
Admittedly, Sudbury and Wayland are towns I haven't had any clients for this year. So, my information may be a little dated. In more recent years there was a larger price gap between the two towns and so perhaps Sudbury is not the value it was prior to this year. This being said, I still prefer the variety of shops/restaurants/supermarkets you'll find locally in Sudbury vs. Wayland.
I ran some super fast reports for sales in these three towns of houses 3,000-4,000 sq feet and I filtered out less popular home styles (raised ranch, split level, etc.) and homes with fewer than 4 bedrooms to give you some more meaningful numbers. Keep in mind, there are still a lot of ignored aspects of the home in such a simple analysis. I did feel though that looking at a smaller, more relevant to the discussion subsection of the market could be helpful here.
Again, I've controlled here for size of house, number of bedrooms, and style of house but lots of other factors that go into valuing a home were completely ignored. It does seem that your money goes a bit (not massively) further in Sudbury.
While some towns over/under assess, it wouldn't be an unreasonable assumption to take this a step further and say that if you're paying roughly 13% less in Sudbury and the tax rate is roughly 2% higher in Wayland that your tax burden could potentially be lower in Sudbury. It depends on how much under/over assessing would come into play here and it will not be overnight that the current rise in values impacts our tax assessments. Either way, there's not a ton of spread between these sales numbers and with Natick having a much lower tax rate of $13.61 it might be the belle of the ball.
Inventory is so scarce that I would suggest doing one of these two things with your home search:
1. Pick one agent to work with who lives in and specializes in your town of choice. There's a lot selling off market these days (personally I think this is INSANE) and if you're looking in Natick and working with an agent who's based in and lives in Newton then you're going to miss out on a lot of opportunities.
2. Work with whatever agent you want, but keep an open mind about what town you're willing to live in. Opening up your search to multiple towns will increase your odds of success if you're working with an agent who will only come up with the "obvious" listings.
The difference in real estate prices or property taxes between Sudbury, Wayland & Natick at the moment is very small. Looking at past 6 months houses over 3,000 sqft at least 0.25 acres of land, I get a median value of $1.29M for Natick, $1.30M for Sudbury and $1.40M for Wayland. Given the size of the sample (~40-50 in Natick and Wayland and ~80 in Sudbury) I am not sure how statistically significant it is. It is not crazy however to think that Wayland's marginally more central location over Sudbury gives it a very slight edge. If we take two years, Wayland is at $1.31M, Natick at $1.20M and Sudbury at $1.16M. I do think Sudbury has appreciated a bit more than the other two towns as people have prioritized commuting location less. You are not getting a materially cheaper house in either town and the difference in tax rate between Sudbury and Wayland is small enough that it will jump yoy (plus the assessment is not static). Natick does have an advantage over the other two towns in having materially lower taxes. I think the only con is that the town as a whole is less aesthetically pleasing (although you just need your house/street to be pleasing) and the school might be less strong as a result of a more diverse socioeconomic populace.
I think strategy 1 does not work for the OP. I track this area and there are basically no off market transactions. In this market, sellers who are willing to not list are probably going to want a premium. Does not mean will never happen, but very unlikely.
Thanks for running this analysis Mike, this is great!
What is the timeframe – all of 2021, or Q2 only? Also do you have the counts of how many sales in each town under the filters you applied?
This is year to date information. Unfortunately, I'd have to run all the reports again to get that additional data and I just don't have time to do that right now.
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Originally Posted by thinkingotherthings
We are working with an agent that we like, although unfortuntely I don't think he gets a ton of inside scoops on these particular towns.
Awesome! I love when people tell me they like their agent. Perhaps, if you feel the agent is great but not a fit for what you need then maybe express that to them and ask them to refer you to some local to the area you're looking in. This way the agent gets a referral fee and is compensated for the time they've spent with you and likely they'll set you up with someone who works in a similar fashion as they do.
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Originally Posted by thinkingotherthings
Another town that might fit the bill is Acton. But, for some reason we haven't been able to muster much excitement for Acton even when we see a house that meets our criteria. I think part of the reason is just that we are less familiar with Acton than the other towns; and also it might be a shade farther from Boston than we're comfortable with. But we should probably take another look at Acton.
Yeah. I have some clients looking up in that direction and I keep telling them to look at Acton because they'll be much more likely to find a house they'll love but they're just not excited about the town. They say the same thing "too far out."
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Originally Posted by maclel
The difference in real estate prices or property taxes between Sudbury, Wayland & Natick at the moment is very small.
I'm not saying you'll be able to retire 10 years earlier because of the difference, but Sudbury does present a slightly better value in that the house should be slightly less expensive and the tax burden should be slightly lower or the same at worst despite the difference in tax rates. If it was a major difference then I would be saying "why are you looking in Wayland????"
Quote:
Originally Posted by maclel
I do think Sudbury has appreciated a bit more than the other two towns as people have prioritized commuting location less.
Absolutely! This year and last Sudbury benefited massively from a reduced emphasis on commute by many home buyers. Up until recently, you could get a great house in a town with highly regarded schools significantly cheaper than other fairly comparable towns.
Quote:
Originally Posted by maclel
You are not getting a materially cheaper house in either town and the difference in tax rate between Sudbury and Wayland is small enough that it will jump yoy (plus the assessment is not static). Natick does have an advantage over the other two towns in having materially lower taxes. I think the only con is that the town as a whole is less aesthetically pleasing (although you just need your house/street to be pleasing) and the school might be less strong as a result of a more diverse socioeconomic populace.
Assessments and tax rates change regularly just like real estate values. Like with all things in life, you just have to make the best decision you can with the information you have at hand. None of us have a crystal ball.
Agreed. Natick is not as uniform as Sudbury or Wayland. It does have a town center that blows away the town centers of Sudbury and Wayland though and it's a much more convenient place to live. As you say . . . just make sure you like your own neighborhood. The schools in Natick are not as highly regarded as Sudbury and Wayland but they're not remotely considered bad by anyone. On a national level, they're still quite strong and even within the state they're still good schools just not top of the heap when you look at rankings.
Quote:
Originally Posted by maclel
I think strategy 1 does not work for the OP. I track this area and there are basically no off market transactions. In this market, sellers who are willing to not list are probably going to want a premium. Does not mean will never happen, but very unlikely.
Great. I've been tracking this area for 14 years. I can tell you from anecdotal evidence that there are a lot of properties trading off market. It's not a massive percentage of homes sold but it's a larger percentage than in past years and adding in that percentage will increase the OP's chances fo success. Unfortunately for you, these data points often take time before they show up online unless you're checking all the deeds recorded at the various registries. Websites like Zillow, Redfin, etc. are getting this data from services that collect it from local municipalities generally from the tax records. I can tell you after dealing with these services for 14 years that they often miss off market sales entirely and when they do catch them they often lag way behind when it comes to getting that data point.
I would actually say that sellers selling off market right now are often getting lower prices. There's nothing pressuring that buyer to pay as much as possible as there's no competition. It's so hard to define a "premium" these days anyway when prices are rising at the incredible pace that they are. Every sale seems to set a new high so if you and everyone else are paying more than what the comps indicate you're not paying a premium you're paying market rate in a rising market.
...the [Natick] school might be less strong as a result of a more diverse socioeconomic populace.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikePRU
The schools in Natick are not as highly regarded as Sudbury and Wayland but they're not remotely considered bad by anyone. On a national level, they're still quite strong and even within the state they're still good schools just not top of the heap when you look at rankings.
I'm glad we're getting on the topic of schools because I have some thoughts. First of all, I question the perception of Natick schools being weaker than Wayland and Sudbury. I wonder how much of this is driven by the differential in GreatSchools.org ratings, due to their ubiquity across RE-tech platforms. If you drill into these ratings, the Natick school scores are all weighed down by "student progress" or "equity" – concepts that I have zero confidence in their ability to measure in any kind of useful ways. If you just focus on "test scores" and (for high schools) "college readiness", the Natick schools appear to be on par. For example, Natick High School is a 7 overall, but 9 on test scores and 10 on college readiness.
US News and World Report rankings include more detailed info on academics for the high schools of these towns.
Natick – 91.28 overall / 51% passed an AP exam / 80% math proficiency / 79% reading proficiency
So maybe Wayland is a hair above the others, but not enough of a difference to give me any concern. And I wonder how many people would be surprised to see Natick with a slightly higher overall score than Lincoln-Sudbury.
I have to confess I typed out the previous blurb on Natick before I checked SAT scores – and it seems that Natick does lag the other two here. Still, not by enough to give me any heartburn.
Another thing I did as part of my school research was plug the different high schools into youtube to see what videos would come up. For Wayland and Natick the first few results are your typical high school promo video, videos about the different programs the schools offer, some student productions, etc. But when I search for Lincoln-Sudbury high school in youtube, the first few videos are: a student-shot video showing a collection of huge parties from a few years ago; a news story about how this past year in-person learning was delayed because of a big student party; a swastika found in the school; students walking out to raise awareness of sexual assault. I know every high school has its share of parties and malicious behavior, but should I be reading anything into this? Anecdotally I've talked to two people familiar with Lincoln-Sudbury high school – one with kids in the school system says its a great town and their kids love the school; another who went through the system and has a learning disability felt failed by the school and doesn't love the town.
Does anyone have any firsthand perspectives on the school systems of these three towns?
Last edited by thinkingotherthings; 11-05-2021 at 01:02 PM..
ayland????"
Great. I've been tracking this area for 14 years. I can tell you from anecdotal evidence that there are a lot of properties trading off market. It's not a massive percentage of homes sold but it's a larger percentage than in past years and adding in that percentage will increase the OP's chances fo success. Unfortunately for you, these data points often take time before they show up online unless you're checking all the deeds recorded at the various registries. Websites like Zillow, Redfin, etc. are getting this data from services that collect it from local municipalities generally from the tax records. I can tell you after dealing with these services for 14 years that they often miss off market sales entirely and when they do catch them they often lag way behind when it comes to getting that data point.
I would actually say that sellers selling off market right now are often getting lower prices. There's nothing pressuring that buyer to pay as much as possible as there's no competition. It's so hard to define a "premium" these days anyway when prices are rising at the incredible pace that they are. Every sale seems to set a new high so if you and everyone else are paying more than what the comps indicate you're not paying a premium you're paying market rate in a rising market.
Sorry to break it to you, but Zillow feeds off the county Registry of Deeds, which makes it quite easy to see what off-market transactions there are have been in those towns. I ran the cross-comparison and there are no transactions off-market in those towns this year. I know that in my hometown of Lincoln there has been just one off-market transaction this year; the most expensive in history at $7.625M. I think that transaction is representative of what you typically see off-market: very high-end property owners who appreciate the discretion of not listing their home for everyone to see and don't want unwanted visitors. Does not apply to the OP search and I don't think he's going to benefit from a super-local agent. I do think there are potential sellers out there but they're more of the old Zillow "make me move" types who are looking for an extra bump over market to sell their house.
On the matter of schools. It's not like any of those towns have better teachers or a better structure overall. The biggest difference is that more homogenous communities don't have to worry about discipline in class and the median level is higher because schools usually cater to the mid-low end of the classroom spectrum. I wouldn't obsess over high-school culture if your kids are 10-15 years away from it, it can quick a few times over by the time it's their turn...
I know that in my hometown of Lincoln there has been just one off-market transaction this year
If you search Registered Land records you'll find that there was at least 1 more off market transaction in town. I don't disagree with your assessment of off market transactions nature, but this one bucked the trend.
If you search Registered Land records you'll find that there was at least 1 more off market transaction in town. I don't disagree with your assessment of off market transactions nature, but this one bucked the trend.
Thank you, I was too hasty looking at the Zillow listings. I actually see two more in Lincoln. One is 28 Old Concord Rd, which is another expensive house ($3.2M) with a storied past.
Large part of the appeal of going private is that the seller saves 5% agent commission. This means that an agent is not going to open you the door to those transactions, an insider has to be the enabler. The OP is already working with an agent so that window of opportunity is partly shut off.
Sorry to break it to you, but Zillow feeds off the county Registry of Deeds, which makes it quite easy to see what off-market transactions there are have been in those towns. I ran the cross-comparison and there are no transactions off-market in those towns this year. I know that in my hometown of Lincoln there has been just one off-market transaction this year; the most expensive in history at $7.625M. I think that transaction is representative of what you typically see off-market: very high-end property owners who appreciate the discretion of not listing their home for everyone to see and don't want unwanted visitors. Does not apply to the OP search and I don't think he's going to benefit from a super-local agent. I do think there are potential sellers out there but they're more of the old Zillow "make me move" types who are looking for an extra bump over market to sell their house.
On the matter of schools. It's not like any of those towns have better teachers or a better structure overall. The biggest difference is that more homogenous communities don't have to worry about discipline in class and the median level is higher because schools usually cater to the mid-low end of the classroom spectrum. I wouldn't obsess over high-school culture if your kids are 10-15 years away from it, it can quick a few times over by the time it's their turn...
Hate to break it to you but whether Zillow is getting it from a service, the White House or directly from the Registry of Deeds they're still lagging way behind on getting it. I've seen it. Have you ever dealt with a municipal entity before? They don't remotely have the focus on accuracy and timeliness that a private company does. You don't think it's odd that there are NO off market transactions for an entire year on Zillow in the town you're referring to? Not even one??? You don't find that telling? If you really think "off market" sales are only for the mega-rich then you've watched too many episodes of Million Dollar Listing.
There are a lot of differences that account for school performance. As you alluded to, many of them have more to do with home life than they do the actual school itself.
Sorry Mike, I don’t understand what you’re trying to say. There’s no lag between when a deed is registered and when is posted to the online database. I suggest you go to the Middlesex South online records and search today’s deeds and compare that to the MLS time stamp. You have no advantage what’s so ever over anyone on Zillow getting real time results.
It’s not just that there are few private transactions for affordable houses. What’s perhaps more important is that private transactions are in large appealing because middlemen are done away with. Working with an agent puts buyers at a disadvantage.
Sorry Mike, I don’t understand what you’re trying to say. There’s no lag between when a deed is registered and when is posted to the online database. I suggest you go to the Middlesex South online records and search today’s deeds and compare that to the MLS time stamp. You have no advantage what’s so ever over anyone on Zillow getting real time results.
It’s not just that there are few private transactions for affordable houses. What’s perhaps more important is that private transactions are in large appealing because middlemen are done away with. Working with an agent puts buyers at a disadvantage.
Sorry but the fact that you can see a deed on the registry's website doesn't make it instantaneously show up on Zillow. Look up 99 Evelyn Rd and 283 Edgewater Dr in Needham. You can see the deeds on Norfolkresearch.org but on Zillow . . . no sale listed for either. Go find a sale that didn't appear on MLS (which Zillow actually does get an accurate feed from) and I'm sure you'll notice a number of them are missing from Zillow.
The "A" in Zillow stands for accuracy. Also . . . just to clarify we're talking about the same Zillow that just folded their house flipping business because they lost hundreds of millions of dollars doing it primarily because they were terrible at judging the market and ended up laying off 25% of their workforce, right? Sorry to burst your bubble but these "real time results" you think you're getting on Zillow just don't exist. Their marketing folks have pulled the wool over your eyes. Pop over to the real estate subforum here on CD and there are plenty of discussions over there about how useless Zillow is.
Also, most of these off market transactions I'm talking about involve an agent. Why anyone would do that . . . I don't get it but I'm seeing it a lot. If you're going to pay to use an agent why not get the full benefit? The volume of For Sale By Owner (FSBO) transactions don't seem to have increased at all but the number of off market transactions involving an agent seem to have gone way up.
Also, how on earth does having effective representation put a buyer at a disadvantage in a transaction? That's the most ludicrous thing I've ever heard. Just want to add that in my experience, the people who don't think they need help are usually the ones who need it the most.
Sorry but the fact that you can see a deed on the registry's website doesn't make it instantaneously show up on Zillow. Look up 99 Evelyn Rd and 283 Edgewater Dr in Needham. You can see the deeds on Norfolkresearch.org but on Zillow . . . no sale listed for either. Go find a sale that didn't appear on MLS (which Zillow actually does get an accurate feed from) and I'm sure you'll notice a number of them are missing from Zillow.
The "A" in Zillow stands for accuracy. Also . . . just to clarify we're talking about the same Zillow that just folded their house flipping business because they lost hundreds of millions of dollars doing it primarily because they were terrible at judging the market and ended up laying off 25% of their workforce, right? Sorry to burst your bubble but these "real time results" you think you're getting on Zillow just don't exist. Their marketing folks have pulled the wool over your eyes. Pop over to the real estate subforum here on CD and there are plenty of discussions over there about how useless Zillow is.
Also, most of these off market transactions I'm talking about involve an agent. Why anyone would do that . . . I don't get it but I'm seeing it a lot. If you're going to pay to use an agent why not get the full benefit? The volume of For Sale By Owner (FSBO) transactions don't seem to have increased at all but the number of off market transactions involving an agent seem to have gone way up.
Also, how on earth does having effective representation put a buyer at a disadvantage in a transaction? That's the most ludicrous thing I've ever heard. Just want to add that in my experience, the people who don't think they need help are usually the ones who need it the most.
Best of luck with your search.
I see that Zillow hasn't updated their site for those sales yet. It seems that it is slower in some counties than others. I am not a fan of Zillow by any stretch of the imagination and their iBuying business was in my opinion always a terrible idea. Obviously, any motivated buyer can easily search the registry. That's what I did when I was looking for a house and trying to get a good sense of valuations. This is however tangential to the issue at hand which is whether hiring a superlocal agent would give the OP an upper hand. Now to the issue.
Private market transactions are very rarely the result of a seller listing his house (FBSO). Instead, these are "networked" sales. The owner is selling to somebody within one or two degrees of separation. Usually it is an outbound motion, meaning the seller lets it be known to people in his network that he is thinking of moving. More rarely it is inbound, meaning the buyer reaches out to a homeowner to explore a transaction. It is obvious why the OP is at a disadvantage in both inbound and outbound transactions. It is great to get representation, but who pays for it? If the OP is competing against other buyers with no agent he's obviously handicapped himself to the tune of 2.5% of the value of the house, or whatever commission the buyer agent requires to be paid. I would furthermore argue the agent would not be a reliable source for those types of situations as, a) the seller is avoiding the local agent grapevine, which is what typically provides the agent with the insider scoop on deals, b) the agent is likely to steer the buyer away from a situation where depending how the contract is structured, his compensation would depend on the generosity of the buyer. For FBSO (meaning the seller lists his house in the MLS), the superlocal agent obviously provides no advantage as the information is public. Again, having any agent is likely disadvantageous as most FBSO seller are not payers of full buyer commissions, going back to the same issue discussed above.
The only situation where having a superlocal agent is an advantage where somehow the seller decides he is going to hire an agent an pay out the standard 5% commission BUT he is going to handicap himself by not listing the house in the MLS. Why would anyone do this? The main benefit of this strategy is that it affords the seller greater privacy - no pictures get disseminated and he has better control over who visits the house. I would argue this strategy makes much more sense when you are dealing with very high-end houses where there is only a rarefied set of buyers which you can to a large degree tap contacting the high-end brokers in your area. This is a suboptimal strategy if you are dealing with cookie-cutter properties, where you are much less likely leaving money on the table by excluding a very large set of potential buyers who are unawares. I can think of a secondary more dubious benefit to this agent-assisted private sale: it allows the seller to test the waters without potentially tainting the house by letting it sit in the market, which might turn it into a perceived bad lemon. By definition, these houses are more likely to be overpriced (that is why the seller is concerned about listing in the first place) relative to comps and only buyers willing to pay a premium for a specific reason are likely to be enticed. Given the OPs flexible criteria, I do not think he is that type of buyer.
This is my way of saying to the OP: given you are not particularly married to any town or specs for your house, you are better served staying with an agent who was a broader geographic scope than going for a superlocal agent. The latter is not going to be as helpful outside of his main coverage area as the former, and you might as well buy a lottery ticket if you are counting on finding a house through an agent-assisted private sale.
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If you really think "off market" sales are only for the mega-rich then you've watched too many episodes of Million Dollar Listing. 
Look up 99 Evelyn Rd and 283 Edgewater Dr in Needham. You can see the deeds on Norfolkresearch.org but on Zillow . . . no sale listed for either. 
Go find a sale that didn't appear on MLS (which Zillow actually does get an accurate feed from) and I'm sure you'll notice a number of them are missing from Zillow. 
