Lafayette-Acadiana Future MSA (Shreveport, Opelousas, Martin: 2013, house, calculation)

[annie_himself]

The current Lafayette CSA is home to roughly 550,000 people. In 2020 will we see the metro gain the surrounding parishes?
It would give it the same size MSA as Shreveport, strange as SBC has always seems noticeably larger.

[JimLFT]

Originally Posted by annie_himself

The current Lafayette CSA is home to roughly 550,000 people. In 2020 will we see the metro gain the surrounding parishes?
It would give it the same size MSA as Shreveport, strange as SBC has always seems noticeably larger.

The SBC urban core is larger than Lafayette's by at least 100K in population, and I am including all the contiguous municipalities of both.

However, you wanted the MSA projection for 2020. Got a crystal ball handy??

Seriously though, when considering that the difference between a micropolitan statistical area and an assimilated statistical area into a primary metro revolves around that subjective 25% social/economic relationship, I think that both Iberia and Vermilion micros will get swallowed up into the Lafayette metro by 2020. Not so sure about the Opelousas micro.

My prediction for 2020:

Shreveport MSA - 415,000 (via projected growth)
Lafayette MSA - 420,000 (via micro area promotion and projected growth)

SBC will still possess the larger urban core.

[annie_himself]

When I said SBC has always seemed larger I meant the entire metro area (in Lafayette's case, include the surrounding parishes).

Not so much a population prediction but when and which parishes would be added to the MSA in 2020.

What about Acadia Parish?

You have SBC losing a chunk of its population. Typo?

[annie_himself]

The Lafayette metropolitan area now consists of Lafayette, Vermillion, St. Martin, Iberia, and Acadia Parishes. At least that's what estimates say. According to these numbers the Laffy MSA is now larger than Shreveport MSA. Maybe by 2020 St. Landry Parish will be added.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/defa...013/b13-01.pdf

[Jimbo_1]

Yeah thats interesting. Lafayette's MSA now seems to be at around 474,500 with Shreveport at 447,200. I guess that will officially make Lafayette the #3 city in Louisiana.

[annie_himself]

It's good to have the largest metro areas that close to one another on one corridor.

[Pisces77]

St Landry has historically just missed the commuting criteria. However, I do find it hard to believe that the criteria wasn't met for the 2010 census due to the growth in the southern parts of the parish near the Lafayette Parish line.

Perhaps this statistic is also just as skewed and incorrect as the 2010 census of population for St Landry Parish. If the federal census would not have miscounted the population so drastically (upwards of 12,000) then it is possible that the criteria would have been met.

When you zoom into the census data for just Opelousas, for example, you can immediately see where the problem lies. In 2000, there were 9783 housing units in this city, but in 2010 the census reported 7141. When adding in the housing units built through the decade, plus the annexations of the city, the 2010 housing count should have been around 10,050. A simple calculation would indicate a city population of just over 25,000 assuming 2.8 per house and an 89% occupancy rate. Not 16,600.

This miscalculation also lead to false data for St Landry as a whole. The parish went through one of the largest housing booms in decades within the 2000's but the census showed a net decrease of almost 1000 units. The actual population should stand around 95,000 today vs the 83,000 in the census.

Anyway, this could be the reason St Landry fell short of commuting criteria in my opinion.

[Pisces77]

St Landry has historically just missed the commuting criteria. However, I do find it hard to believe that the criteria wasn't met for the 2010 census due to the growth in the southern parts of the parish near the Lafayette Parish line.

Perhaps this statistic is also just as skewed and incorrect as the 2010 census of population for St Landry Parish. If the federal census would not have miscounted the population so drastically (upwards of 12,000) then it is possible that the criteria would have been met.

When you zoom into the census data for just Opelousas, for example, you can immediately see where the problem lies. In 2000, there were 9783 housing units in this city, but in 2010 the census reported 7141. When adding in the housing units built through the decade, plus the annexations of the city, the 2010 housing count should have been around 10,050. A simple calculation would indicate a city population of just over 25,000 assuming 2.8 per house and an 89% occupancy rate. Not 16,600.

This miscalculation also lead to false data for St Landry as a whole. The parish went through one of the largest housing booms in decades within the 2000's but the census showed a net decrease of almost 1000 units. The actual population should stand around 95,000 today vs the 83,000 in the census.

Anyway, this could be the reason St Landry fell short of commuting criteria in my opinion.

[annie_himself]

Good post. I just figured that the parish was more independent and established enough to keep enough of it's residents in the parish when commuting.

[009811]

The only downside of Lafayette, honestly, is too small, even though they grow too fast these years.

Ideally, in the city limit, if double or triple the current figure, that will be nice.