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The other issue that hasn't been brought up yet is that no real estate taxes will be paid for 10 years. That is a lot of lost money right there.
There will be other money spent though. 1,400 apartments = lets say 2 per apartment. That's almost 3,000 more people spending money in the area. If most of these people commute to the city, then that's less wear and tear on the road, since it'll be a 1/4 mile from the train station.
Believe though if this is targeting NYC commuters then $74K/year is not far fetched. Also they get to save on other expenses like not having to pay NYC income taxes, public schools and libraries, and not having to frequently drive to the strip malls. At those rates, you are looking at either Queens or an isolated area in Manhattan and those are not very convenient areas to live in or commute from.
There could be a market at those prices mentioned.
I agree with this but how far is that commute to NYC, close to an hour and a half? I guess for the tax and rental savings it could be worth it. I, personally hope it succeeds. We need more young, upwardly mobile residents on the island!
I agree with this but how far is that commute to NYC, close to an hour and a half? I guess for the tax and rental savings it could be worth it.
The more affordable areas in the boroughs are not that convenient either. Subways get packed like sardine cans in the rush hour and if you ride express bus, could take nearly an hour to midtown. Also these places aren't always close to amenities like churches, schools, groceries and theaters meaning residents will still have to drive. So maybe a 1.5 hr. train ride to Penn is worth it.
Prior to the post-WW2 sprawling out of American households, the suburbs were organized into high density developments. This hub and similar proposals is simply going back to how things were done in the past. It might work for households who need to commute many miles to the west for jobs and would alleviate the use of highways and arterial roads.
After ww2, there was still plenty of land to sprawl over. Now that the suburban sprawl has invaded even some of the more green areas, developers maximum return is on building up, in addition to out. It goes with the fact there's just not too much land left.
I appreciate your effort to look for the silver-lining, but I don't get the idea so many 'reverse' commuters will be in the market to move to these village-like developments. A number of reverse commuters I know live in Queens and wouldn't give that up, despite the now-clogged reverse commute. They just don't think moving to LI is worth the expense.
There will be other money spent though. 1,400 apartments = lets say 2 per apartment. That's almost 3,000 more people spending money in the area. If most of these people commute to the city, then that's less wear and tear on the road, since it'll be a 1/4 mile from the train station.
The real estate taxes are guaranteed regardless of how many people occupy the building, especially if the buildings don't have 100% occupancy. You can't fully predict peoples' spending. There are many variables with hoping that money is brought in with the spending.
After ww2, there was still plenty of land to sprawl over. Now that the suburban sprawl has invaded even some of the more green areas, developers maximum return is on building up, in addition to out. It goes with the fact there's just not too much land left.
I appreciate your effort to look for the silver-lining, but I don't get the idea so many 'reverse' commuters will be in the market to move to these village-like developments. A number of reverse commuters I know live in Queens and wouldn't give that up, despite the now-clogged reverse commute. They just don't think moving to LI is worth the expense.
I was referring to before WW2, and even going back to the 19th century, when suburbs like Bronxville, Scarsdale, Mamaroneck and Bayside emerged. It was necessity that drove people to these communites, not so much their wants. And necessity again has been and will continue to drive people to similar communities. This trend has started around 2010. You have a combination of more stressful employment arrangements and higher petroleum prices which augers for less driving.
Now a lot of this success will depend on how NYC responds, of course. They are the biggest player in the high density housing market. So far things still look in favor of LI hosting these town developments. The new condos coming up in the boroughs and Hoboken/Newport are mostly high end and unaffordable, while the "affordable" housing being developed in the Bronx is limited to relatively lower income (ie, a percent of the median income of Bronx residents). There are also issues with public school edication and public transportation that need to be addressed. Amenities in Queens are lacking and the good areas in Brooklyn are too expensive. So when you net out everything, there is still that segment of the market earning say $50K to $200K that would benefit from moving out to LI or Westchester.
If NYC embarks on more sensible residential projects that appeal to that income range then you're right, the suburbs can't compete.
What the developers in LI need to keep in mind is to minimize the need for driving. Not totally eliminate it since you still need to drive to get to the beach or go to a warehouse club. But for some of the everyday things like getting to the train station, schools, grocery, pharmacy, toiletries, church, playgrounds, mini parks and what not, they should all be walkable from any point within the community. That will be the value you will offer to those residents.
Believe though if this is targeting NYC commuters then $74K/year is not far fetched. Also they get to save on other expenses like not having to pay NYC income taxes, public schools and libraries, and not having to frequently drive to the strip malls. At those rates, you are looking at either Queens or an isolated area in Manhattan and those are not very convenient areas to live in or commute from.
There could be a market at those prices mentioned.
Assuming the people will be commuting NYC to Ronkonkoma for work they are paying $363 monthly for LIRR + $100/month for the subway (20 office days x $5) which leaves you at $463/month just to commute to work.
I feel that this will most likely end up attracting people who don't can't afford the rent in other areas. To attract commuters the LIRR will really need to add more express trains to Penn Station in the morning, but that is something that can't happen until the Double Track project is complete.
Assuming the people will be commuting NYC to Ronkonkoma for work they are paying $363 monthly for LIRR + $100/month for the subway (20 office days x $5) which leaves you at $463/month just to commute to work.
If they work in midtown then they don't need the $100/month subway fare. Employment options in midtown are expected to increase over the next 15 years as the midtown east expansion gets underway.
$363/month for train fare is reasonable as opposed to having to live in a shoebox in Brooklyn and fighting for every benefit your kid can get from the DOE.
What the developers in LI need to keep in mind is to minimize the need for driving. Not totally eliminate it since you still need to drive to get to the beach or go to a warehouse club. But for some of the everyday things like getting to the train station, schools, grocery, pharmacy, toiletries, church, playgrounds, mini parks and what not, they should all be walkable from any point within the community. That will be the value you will offer to those residents.
Absolutely! That is definitely one thing I think these communities have to accomplish. The project is a TOD and as such, it is more pedestrian friendly and bike friendly, so I'm hoping some of the retail going into the project will have these options.
It's essentially a place where people could live, work and play~. I just hope the developers keep in mind that if they want that, that they need to be reasonable with the price on the apartments, in comparison to the people who will be renting there, if that is the aspect they are going for.
Absolutely! That is definitely one thing I think these communities have to accomplish. The project is a TOD and as such, it is more pedestrian friendly and bike friendly, so I'm hoping some of the retail going into the project will have these options.
It's essentially a place where people could live, work and play~.
One thing these communities should not do is completely shut out chain stores. Rather, it's better to work with chains and see if they can tailor their outlets to the lifestyle of the neighborhood.
A common problem of main streets is that their merchants come under pressure and close down whenever a big box or warehouse club opens 5-10 miles away. Few small businesses have the financial strength to compete with big box variety and low prices. I like the way Duane Reade set up its new branch in Forest Hills, while A&P has town-friendly outlets in Westchester. Even Mcdonalds can be convinced to put up a town-friendly branch.
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That is definitely one thing I think these communities have to accomplish. The project is a TOD and as such, it is more pedestrian friendly and bike friendly, so I'm hoping some of the retail going into the project will have these options.
