[ocean2026]

Gulfer its pretty clear 2009 is going to be a bad year- and when you find out lexus, Obama and I are correct please come back and apologize. One doesn't need to be an Obama or even an Ocean to see what massive layoffs and bankruptcies will do to the economy. Perhaps at the end of 2009 things will start to pick up.

[RedRockAAAA]

Some of you are brainiacs in this field. I am not. I admire your knowledge. Now let's bring this down to a buy/sell/buy level I can grasp.

2001 we bought a condo along with my son in Kitty Hawk NC for $60,000. At the market's peak like units were selling for $225,000. We sold ours in 2007 for $150,000...oops...sort of.

So we move to Las Vegas and in Oct 2008 we buy a bank owned home that had sold in Jan 2008 for $199,000 for $140,000 @ 6% with 3% down FHA and they paid all of the closing costs. The home, unlike some torn up bank owned properties, had fresh paint inside and out, all new appliances, ceiling fans everywhere, inspected well, appraised well and came with a 1 year full warranty.

I may not have an exact point here, but I hope the example helps to amplify that with real estate it is what it is. As long as you can afford it, live where ya want, in the house ya want then get out and enjoy life. Oh yeah, and don't forget to make your wife's coffee every morning.

By the way....our realtor bought 1 of those short sells for herself after 3 fell through. She is thrilled with the results. She did tell me that it takes the right personality and patience to go through that process. Her husband is not only impatient but he fell in love with each house, so he suffered a bit with each failed purchase.

Happy Hunting, Ron

[olecapt]

YOu are being far to broad in your definition of a bad year. We could very easily have a bad year with a 10% increase in the cost of housing. In fact I would think it has a significant probabliity. In fact much higher that we will go down another 25%.

Much of that depends on the supply of REPOs which, in turn, is dependent on how the mortgage disaster is handled. I think it clear we will see some move made by early next year. Will it be effective? Got me. But that effectiveness will have a very big impact on where prices go.

I would think anyone who understands our RE market more than 6 months out should be sent right off to a padded room.

[GoreeGal]

I heard a report at a business meeting that 09 is not going to be strong.I believe that Ole Capt says it will go down, but 25% may be a stretch. Their forecast was mid 2010 it will be looking up but then we heard the Gov. is going to possibly step in and work with banks dropping the interest to 4.5% which will certainly stimulate this market and we might see a return in the near future of investors for the REO's but the guru at the meeting I attended (Some guy from SO CA) who predicts markets said we should be mid 2010 before we get a return to somewhat of a normal market and a couple of years after that before we see any significant increase and significant could be 5% per year. He said no more will their be double digit increases and not to think your home is a cash cow like it was before.

But again no one knows anything for sure but he has been pretty right on in SO CAl.

[olecapt]

My view is that a price run up at the end of the REPO scene is pretty much certain. Las Vegas has two price lines running almost 20% apart. One is 75% of the market REPO with a median price now around $95 per SF and the non REPO with 25% of the market at around $120 Per SF. Over the last 6 months they have held roughly that 20% or a little more apart.

If you run out of REPOs what has to happen? The price goes up.

The bad news is that is not neccessarily a good thing...because as the REPO sales go away they may be replaced with nothing....And we end up with the volume down 50% or more.

The big question is when does the REPO go away. The sub-prime mortgages will almost all have reset and stabilized by mid next year. Behind them are the Alt-A mortgages. These are of higher quality and, so far, have shown less defaulting. But there are lots of them. And then on top of that we have the Feds trying to fix things.

2009 is going to be an interesting year. I suspect we all will be glad to see 2010.

[rpachigo]

Please read thehousingbubbleblog.com before buying anything. Don't trust anyone at face value.

[geos]

Originally Posted by rpachigo

Please read thehousingbubbleblog.com before buying anything. Don't trust anyone at face value.

Not exactly up to date is it?

[rpachigo]

Originally Posted by geos

Not exactly up to date is it?

The Housing Bubble Blog

Quite up to date actually. Also check out housing-watch.com. Asking prices down about 36% YTD with inventory down a measly 3% in that time span. Still some falling to do.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by rpachigo

The Housing Bubble Blog

Quite up to date actually. Also check out housing-watch.com. Asking prices down about 36% YTD with inventory down a measly 3% in that time span. Still some falling to do.

Collections of tidbits from here and there with no reason or structure.

Somebody with too much time on their hands.

I like a good doom and gloom blog...this ain't one.

[beachrescue]

mod cut: implied expletive removed No one in the whole world, is going to invest in the US for years there. It is over credit babies, over...... Credit will not return to the way it was ever, we have changed the way our economy runs.