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Old 12-31-2007, 11:00 AM
 
Location: Santa Monica
4,714 posts, read 8,458,946 times
Reputation: 1052

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Quote:
Originally Posted by yasudab View Post
Japan went thru the same type of economic cycle and it took 15 years to get out of it. What makes anyone think that in America, things will miraculously turn around in 1 year and all of a sudden, prices will rise??? I think they are lying to themselves. Seriously, look at all the inventory. It will be at least a few years to get rid of all this excess inventory and prices will not rise, but will continue to fall. Anyone who says differently are probably people who are trying to make money off of real estate.
How much do you know about Japan's banking laws?

Japan's banks never wrote off their bad loans. The gov't wouldn't let any banks fail. This caused what economic recovery there was to completely creep along. Not the same situation in the US.
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Old 12-31-2007, 11:01 AM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,187,029 times
Reputation: 2661
Las Vegas will stabilize before the mddle of 2009. That is simply driven by the impact of the new strip developments. Absorbing another 200K people makes for a good market.

Las Vegas is going to be a real down market for the next few months.

The question is what happens in between.

Las Vegas builders went to build to contract at least 18 months ago. New build inventory is not large. Resale inventory is.
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Old 12-31-2007, 11:02 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas
44 posts, read 187,151 times
Reputation: 51
Default Shiller: Housing has not yet begun to collapse

I typed in "vegas bubble" into Google's news function and got this article:

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2007/12/...-collapse.html
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Old 12-31-2007, 01:56 PM
 
4,176 posts, read 6,332,598 times
Reputation: 1874
I'd give credibility to the thoughts and comments of Professor Schiller (referenced in the video above). He's been right in the past and is very pessimistic in general especially with regards to areas like LV.
Arguably, the most pessimistic economist if Nouriel Roubini of NYU.

See for yourself:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=616676494&play=1
http://www.rgemonitor.com/
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Old 12-31-2007, 06:05 PM
 
Location: las vegas
229 posts, read 814,446 times
Reputation: 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
Las Vegas will stabilize before the mddle of 2009. That is simply driven by the impact of the new strip developments. Absorbing another 200K people makes for a good market.

Las Vegas is going to be a real down market for the next few months.

The question is what happens in between.

Las Vegas builders went to build to contract at least 18 months ago. New build inventory is not large. Resale inventory is.
What do you base your prediction of a stable market on? I'm curious if it is based on something factual. How are more low-paying service industry jobs going to correct our local housing problems? How many $11/hour casino workers is it going to take to buy a median-priced home in Las Vegas? Less than ten years ago, that was easy: two.
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Old 12-31-2007, 07:03 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2,990 posts, read 8,709,297 times
Reputation: 1516
Quote:
Originally Posted by ackackack View Post
What do you base your prediction of a stable market on? I'm curious if it is based on something factual. How are more low-paying service industry jobs going to correct our local housing problems? How many $11/hour casino workers is it going to take to buy a median-priced home in Las Vegas? Less than ten years ago, that was easy: two.
You've got a point, but where are they going to house all those people? I don't think there is enough apartments right? I know there is going to be a lot of rentals for sure and rent is going up if the supply and demand doesn't correct itself.
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Old 12-31-2007, 07:08 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas, NV
403 posts, read 1,170,036 times
Reputation: 216
Quote:
Originally Posted by Randy Culture View Post
I typed in "vegas bubble" into Google's news function and got this article:

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2007/12/...-collapse.html
Actually, Randy, when you typed in "vegas bubble" you got 80 returns. That you found one to support your opinion is hardly impressive.
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Old 12-31-2007, 10:32 PM
 
4,176 posts, read 6,332,598 times
Reputation: 1874
Quote:
Originally Posted by ackackack View Post
How many $11/hour casino workers is it going to take to buy a median-priced home in Las Vegas? Less than ten years ago, that was easy: two.
This is an important point. I can't find the article right now, but Prof Chris Mayer (Columbia GSB) outlined that cities like SF have experienced a change in the population with regards to the wealth breakdown. In SF, the relative percentage of wealthy people has gone up and the relative percentage of middle class and lower class people has gone down. In cities like LV, the composition of the population has stayed the same with regards to the wealth breakdown of the population. Adding new people and jobs is great but, if they're mainly lower level service jobs (as many in LV are), it may not support housing prices well. You can only charge what people are willing (and, hopefully, able) to pay, which is why places like NYC and SF have an advantage over places like Vegas. I would recommend carefully listening to Professor Roubini's comments and predictions for the future. He has good evidence for his positions.
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Old 01-01-2008, 12:19 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2,990 posts, read 8,709,297 times
Reputation: 1516
Quote:
Originally Posted by LIS123 View Post
This is an important point. I can't find the article right now, but Prof Chris Mayer (Columbia GSB) outlined that cities like SF have experienced a change in the population with regards to the wealth breakdown. In SF, the relative percentage of wealthy people has gone up and the relative percentage of middle class and lower class people has gone down. In cities like LV, the composition of the population has stayed the same with regards to the wealth breakdown of the population. Adding new people and jobs is great but, if they're mainly lower level service jobs (as many in LV are), it may not support housing prices well. You can only charge what people are willing (and, hopefully, able) to pay, which is why places like NYC and SF have an advantage over places like Vegas. I would recommend carefully listening to Professor Roubini's comments and predictions for the future. He has good evidence for his positions.
True, in SF the "haves" and "have not's" gap in income has really widened in the past decade. SF has a lot of good social programs that house the lower income, but that is also why they pay more taxes. I have some good friends in SF and they all rent and do not own.
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Old 01-01-2008, 08:22 AM
 
Location: Toledo, OH
1,725 posts, read 3,462,030 times
Reputation: 1277
I finally found the article written by moody economist. The report is about 360+ pages long and basically broke down cities around the country. What I found very interesting was that it talked about in Las Vegas was the expected drop in prices from Peak to Trough. While the percentage was between 20%-30% with the Peak being 1st quarter 2006 and the Trough being 2nd quarter 2009!!! With the percentages already being about 10%, that leaves an incline that would make a truckers knuckles whiten if were a highway down a mountain, at least it gives something to look out for. Was a good read, but again, another forecast - the truth will come out, but not until it is hind sight.
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