[logline]

Mshu, but what about the select few video poker machines with slightly above 100% EV with proper play strategy? Doesn't that fly in the face of your argument?

Also, roulette?? You lost me there. There is no edge that can be gained from it. Mathematically impossible unless you have some sort of computational method of measuring ball speed and wheel speed, but even then there is tremendous variance when the ball starts to bounce.

[MSchu]

Originally Posted by logline

Mshu, but what about the select few video poker machines with slightly above 100% EV with proper play strategy? Doesn't that fly in the face of your argument?

Also, roulette?? You lost me there. There is no edge that can be gained from it. Mathematically impossible unless you have some sort of computational method of measuring ball speed and wheel speed, but even then there is tremendous variance when the ball starts to bounce.

^ I wont play anything that can be programed with an algorithm... video poker or not. that's just me.

in addition, each machine(or game) needs to be studied for it's unique qualities and formulas. I don't study slot machines, but I do study game theorem as it relates mainly to poker. Having done this gives a very unique and realistic view of games of chance, sporting events and indeed most occurrences where chaos is needing to be factored.

if video poker machines are rated/programed to payout more than they take in, then different ideas/theorems apply. playing the machines in a way they term, "optimally", may yield positive EV well beyond slot machines... but comparing the two are not really possible save for the fact in terms of equities earned. In addition, winning may not be sustainable over a longer sample period. from what I have gathered, the best odds machines in VP is about 99.54% payback or -.46... this is on a 9/6 machine. And those VP machines go rapidly downward in payout odds by a simple reductin of a single point... down from over 99% to 96% just by that one reduction.

again, we're not trying to win the battle, we're trying to win the war!

As far as roulette goes, there is absolutely a way to edge out the house in terms of pot odds on a roll by roll basis that DOES NOT rely on specific ball placement on the board.

[MSchu]

I've read up a little bit on the whole VP situation... I AM NOT and expert, but what is apparently clear is that VP machines all offer fixed odds on winning hands based on a completely random card mix. there are only so many(just over 2 million) combinations of hands possible with a deck of cards(52). what CAN BE changed is the payout percentage, and this is where the house can gain an advantage in relation to the ability to make a winning combination out of that 2+ million hand range.

What seems to have not been addressed on some of these "forums" is what is affectionately known as the RNG... the Random Numeric Generator. this is the algorithm that a programer uses to generate delt combinations... and believe me, this RNG can be manipulated.

[mojavedxer]

Originally Posted by MSchu

I've read up a little bit on the whole VP situation... I AM NOT and expert, but what is apparently clear is that VP machines all offer fixed odds on winning hands based on a completely random card mix. there are only so many(just over 2 million) combinations of hands possible with a deck of cards(52). what CAN BE changed is the payout percentage, and this is where the house can gain an advantage in relation to the ability to make a winning combination out of that 2+ million hand range.

What seems to have not been addressed on some of these "forums" is what is affectionately known as the RNG... the Random Numeric Generator. this is the algorithm that a programer uses to generate delt combinations... and believe me, this RNG can be manipulated.

And how do you alter the RNG chipset when the chip is under strict control with casino compliance and gaming control. There is a tight control set that regulates the RNG chipset found on the video poker games with a very long paper trail of documentation.

[MSchu]

Originally Posted by mojavedxer

And how do you alter the RNG chipset when the chip is under strict control with casino compliance and gaming control. There is a tight control set that regulates the RNG chipset found on the video poker games with a very long paper trail of documentation.

how do you alter it... if your the manufacturer, how do you think you alter it?

a player CAN NOT alter the algorithm if that is your implication... that is my point. nor can a player alter his gaming strategy to take advantage of it, the best a player can do is play "optimally"... on a 9/6 machine, that is just over 99.54% return, guaranteed -.46%

As a player you are still at the mercy of the RNG which may or may not be slanted in the houses favor.

like i said previously... I choose to not play these machines.

the main reason I love playing against a live opponents versus a computer program is that you can play a strategy that is far from what is considered "optimal" and still win. As a matter of fact, playing in a fashion that is characterized as "optimal", is one of the surest ways to loose against really talented players that can spot playing these characteristics without having to see the hole cards.

[BuyingWhenLow]

One of the advantages of video poker over slots is that the educated player can easily determine the payout ratio of any machine by comparing the full house and flush payouts. In your example, a 9/6 machine pays 9 to 1 for a full house and 6 to 1 for a flush. You would clearly want to play a 9/6 machine over a 8/5 machine any day.


Any of these odds on slot machines and video poker are based on countless hours of plays. Any machine will have it's hot and cold cycles during the course of the sample period. You are better off playing a 70% payback machine on a hot cycle than you would be playing a 100% payback machine on a cold cycle.


So it all boils down to luck no matter how much you calculate the odds. But real poker is different. Poker is a game of skill. It is definitely NOT gambling. People who play poker with the idea that it is gambling are the donkeys that supply the winnings to the good players.

[ScoopLV]

Originally Posted by BuyingWhenLow

You are better off playing a 70% payback machine on a hot cycle than you would be playing a 100% payback machine on a cold cycle.

Machines are not "hot" or "cold." It's the old coin flip odds scenario. A coin has been flipped 10 times and each time it's landed "heads" (note, no bias in the coin, just statistical dumb luck). For the 11th flip, the odds are still 50-50 heads/tails, doesn't matter what the last 10 flips were. I think we all "get" that, yet people will bet heads or tails based on something else -- "it flipped heads 10 times, so it HAS to flip tails this time" or "this coin is HOT, I'm betting heads again! Let it ride!"

A 99% pay-out machine/table game/etc is STILL a guaranteed loser. As Mchu said, would any of us here invest in a stock that had a 100-year history of losing 1%? Even if occasionally it paid a dividend (beating the odds and occasionally winning)?

Originally Posted by BuyingWhenLow

So it all boils down to luck no matter how much you calculate the odds. But real poker is different. Poker is a game of skill. It is definitely NOT gambling. People who play poker with the idea that it is gambling are the donkeys that supply the winnings to the good players.

Poker is not a game of skill. BETTING at poker takes skill. But playing does not. Subtle, but big difference.

Learning optimal play, even on draw poker games, is not hard. Casinos do not allow skill games to be played in their house. There will never be a casino game where someone can win money shooting free throws or sinking putts. Only games of chance are allowed -- because that's the way the house wants it.

And poker definitely IS gambling. Otherwise we wouldn't have terms like "bad beat." Over time, the better player will win more pots. But even the best player in the world can be defeated by random chance during the short term.

[logline]

But what about these video poker machines that give OVER 100% payback in the long run with optimal play?

Las Vegas Video Poker Casinos

[ScoopLV]

Originally Posted by logline

But what about these video poker machines that give OVER 100% payback in the long run with optimal play?

Las Vegas Video Poker Casinos

That's something I've wondered about, too. But I bet it's not like there's a big sign over the handful of 100%+ machines, advertising -- "Here it is! The 103% poker machine! Please sit down and take advantage of us!"

Also, consider the amount of VP grinding one would have to do at +3% to scratch out a living. Finally, there's the "short term screwage" of random numbers.

I'm sure if there's a way to game the system, someone has figured it out (and is probably keeping his or her mouth shut.)

[dynimagelv]

Originally Posted by ScoopLV

I'm sure if there's a way to game the system, someone has figured it out (and is probably keeping his or her mouth shut.)

NOPE....when someone IS lucky enough or smart enough to figure it out they HAVE to brag about it....then BANG we got em