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Old 09-30-2011, 03:09 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,242,618 times
Reputation: 2661

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tek_Freek View Post
So you are making your arguments without bothering to read the article?

If you have a problem with those numbers you need to contact the author of the article: Jon Hurdle
Does not compute. A 21 KW array can generate at most 50,000KWHs. At retail that would be about $5,000. At wholesale less than half that. And in fact used as describe the array would do less than half that well. Note that he claims to provide about twice his needs. You think a Jersey residence would have a power bill over $1,000 per month?

Conventional cost installed for such an array would run around $140,000. You might manage to break even in 20 years.
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Old 09-30-2011, 03:35 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,242,618 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by BBMW View Post
Don't need any storage? You're forgetting one major problem: Night. I've been in Vegas in the summer. It's less hot at night, but it's still hot, and dark too. I think I want the AC and lights running.

Yes, I know you're going to talk about grid tied PV systems. But then you sill need the utility, don't you.

Until they deal with the storage problem, the low conversion efficiency, and price, PV is not going to be anywhere near economically viable.
Of course I am going to talk about grid tied systems. I would think they are the only way to go for the first ten or fifteen years of production solar. Note that the peak hour usage is about five times the minimal hour usage in the SW climate. That likely indicates that half of the supply or more could be naked solar. If we start getting half of the supply to solar we can go after the storage problem.

Recent solar cell efficiencies are getting over 25%. The theoretical limit is something just over 30%.

Price actually has broken through recently but the question is whether it is real or not. Cell pricing at $1.50 per watt is being achieved. That is what doomed Solyandra who had really good technology to get below $3.00 per watt when the industry was at $4.00. But the whole industry has come down to the $1.50 mark.

The concern though is how much is that price being subsidized particularly by China. Is the real cost of polysilicon now actually low enough to support such a cell price or are we seeing a $1.50 subsidy from China? That price is low enough to vastly increase demand so we may see real soon.

Looks to me like we will be there in five years if the Chinese can support that price or use technology to drive to it.

I may see my home go solar after all. Did not think I would make it to that day.
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Old 09-30-2011, 07:22 PM
 
28,803 posts, read 47,753,206 times
Reputation: 37906
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
Does not compute. A 21 KW array can generate at most 50,000KWHs. At retail that would be about $5,000. At wholesale less than half that. And in fact used as describe the array would do less than half that well. Note that he claims to provide about twice his needs. You think a Jersey residence would have a power bill over $1,000 per month?

Conventional cost installed for such an array would run around $140,000. You might manage to break even in 20 years.
I'm not arguing numbers, only quoting what the article conveyed. Again, if you need to talk about the validity of what is in the article you need to contact the author.
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Old 09-30-2011, 07:49 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,242,618 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tek_Freek View Post
I'm not arguing numbers, only quoting what the article conveyed. Again, if you need to talk about the validity of what is in the article you need to contact the author.
If you lack understanding of the points under discussion...don't discuss...simple. These are not difficult calculations. Doable by any techie...

If you quote an author announcing the earth is flat it will not be believeable ...and I will not go and argue with that author either.
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Old 10-01-2011, 09:24 AM
 
28,803 posts, read 47,753,206 times
Reputation: 37906
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
If you lack understanding of the points under discussion...don't discuss...simple. These are not difficult calculations. Doable by any techie...

If you quote an author announcing the earth is flat it will not be believeable ...and I will not go and argue with that author either.
Not discussing simply expounding on given numbers by an author of an article.

From past postings I have less reason to rely on your numbers than his...
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Old 10-01-2011, 09:41 AM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,242,618 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tek_Freek View Post
Not discussing simply expounding on given numbers by an author of an article.

From past postings I have less reason to rely on your numbers than his...
Why do you call yourself "Tek" as you obviously can't handle the most basic of calculations?

You don't have to believe my numbers...do your own...
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Old 10-01-2011, 10:07 AM
 
Location: Kingman AZ
15,370 posts, read 39,149,191 times
Reputation: 9215
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
Why do you call yourself "Tek" as you obviously can't handle the most basic of calculations?

You don't have to believe my numbers...do your own...
Maybe it means "To Explore Kansas"
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Old 10-01-2011, 10:14 AM
 
28,803 posts, read 47,753,206 times
Reputation: 37906
Meh
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Old 10-03-2011, 05:17 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
12,686 posts, read 36,389,822 times
Reputation: 5521
Blue Mountain geothermal, Nevada
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Old 10-03-2011, 06:08 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2,990 posts, read 8,720,572 times
Reputation: 1516
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScoopLV View Post
I'll one-up you, I fill my tank with natural gas -- 100% American-made and 100% combustable. No emissions at all. I don't even have to do smog check. And compressed natural gas is currently $2.49 a gallon. (Well, it's sold by the pound, but it works out to $2.49 a gallon.)

Look into it if you care about this problem.
What kind of CNG car or truck do you have? A friend of mine in CA uses a Honda Civic GX (natural gas civic). He can use the HOV lane anytime and get great gas mileage. His commute is 80 miles each way, so 160 miles and he uses PHILL (this is the home filling station that uses your home natural gas and is low pressure so it is very safe). The only drawback is it takes overnight to fill your tank, but you have a full tank every day no matter what. He says comes out to about $1.10 per gallon using his home system compared to a filling station. He also says his oil changes are every 15,000 miles or more depending on driving habits because there is no carbon blow by the cylinders, so the oil stays very clean. Drawback is the new 2012 is about 26K, but there are government tax rebates.
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