[olecapt]

Banks own roughly 15,000 homes in Las Vegas. Of these 4500 are listed for sale in the MLS. So about 10,500 owned but not listed. At present rate that is around a 6 months supply.

Price of REOs has been trending sharply downward the last months. Down over 10% since the start of 4Q2010. It appears to be having little impact on volume.

So we may have reached a point where the lenders can unload only 1500 or so per month at any rational price.

So we may well have a way of life for years. 1500 REOs each month forever with the rest of the market overlaying it.

[bay bridge]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Banks own roughly 15,000 homes in Las Vegas. Of these 4500 are listed for sale in the MLS. So about 10,500 owned but not listed. At present rate that is around a 6 months supplly.

So olecapt, your telling us that because of 15,000 homes Vegas is rank 1 in the United States when it comes to foreclosure?? Where do you get your information in regards to a 6 months supply. I know for a fact that we have 20 year supply of condos.

You didn't start a new job with the banks. did you?

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by Willy702

Do you really believe its only banks who hold loans? I have bought three homes in my lifetime, none were ever held by my bank for long and in two cases they ended up with non-FDIC entities. If a bank holds it sure you can get a decent guess at it, but banks were selling the worst of the loans off with abandon until 2008.

No, I don't only believe it's banks who hold loans. However, overwhelmingly it is banks that service the loans whether they own them or not. Even the mortgages that have been securitized trade on a secondary market like any other security - that is, they are bought and sold. How do you suppose these mortgage backed securities are traded if the underlying loan portfolios can't be valued?

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by bay bridge

So olecapt, your telling us that because of 15,000 homes Vegas is rank 1 in the United States when it comes to foreclosure?? Where do you get your information in regards to a 6 months supply. I know for a fact that we have 20 year supply of condos.

You didn't start a new job with the banks. did you?

You are confusing different things.

Foreclosure statistics deal with homes behind and having received a NOD. Not with actual trustee sales.

It is rather easy to tell what lenders own. They acquire them on a trustee sale...which is a field in the tax data base. There are a few that don't have an official trustee sale by they are all from Fannie and Freddie and can be tracked down by ownership.

You then subtract the REOs listed in the MLS.

REO sales are virtually all in the MLS and are running along at about 1250 SFRs and 250 or 300 condos a month.

There may well be many more that are going to be foreclosed. But I believe the number actually owned by the lenders is down a little year over year.

Even the number of trustee sales scheduled in a month tends to be very misleading. Maybe 30% or so actually occur. The rest are rescheduled or cancelled.

So yeah there may well be a lot more to go...but they don't show any sign of going any faster. Just going to take a very long time to clear them all.

You have to wonder whether the new build industry will ever come back with a supply of 15000 cheap homes every year.

[havreman]

Originally Posted by olecapt

You are confusing different things.

Foreclosure statistics deal with homes behind and having received a NOD. Not with actual trustee sales.

It is rather easy to tell what lenders own. They acquire them on a trustee sale...which is a field in the tax data base. There are a few that don't have an official trustee sale by they are all from Fannie and Freddie and can be tracked down by ownership.

You then subtract the REOs listed in the MLS.

REO sales are virtually all in the MLS and are running along at about 1250 SFRs and 250 or 300 condos a month.

There may well be many more that are going to be foreclosed. But I believe the number actually owned by the lenders is down a little year over year.

Even the number of trustee sales scheduled in a month tends to be very misleading. Maybe 30% or so actually occur. The rest are rescheduled or cancelled.

So yeah there may well be a lot more to go...but they don't show any sign of going any faster. Just going to take a very long time to clear them all.

You have to wonder whether the new build industry will ever come back with a supply of 15000 cheap homes every year.

You write some great posts................ on this board!